Election Results and Politics in India

[Yamaka]

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In about 12 hours, we may know the Election Results in WB, Kerala, Tamil Nadu etc..my bet is Kalaigner will form the first Coalition Govt in TN... and in WB the CPI(M) will lose their shirt for the first time in the last 34 years!

What say you?

To the Indian Communists, what did you all achieve in WB in the last 34 years:

While the whole of China has a per capita GDP of about $3000 a year, and TN, Punjab, Gujarat and Maharashtra post a per capita GDP in the range of $1300-$1450, WB showed a mere $900 a year (all at Official rate, not PPP)????

When will you walk the talk?

Cheers

Yamaka

 

[kunjuppu]

Y,

looks like J will be the new CM. i am all for change of governments regularly. it keeps the rascals on their toes and more than that, makes india a functioning democracy.

jai democracy.

 

[subbudu1]

Two women have become chief ministers in India at the same time. Both have won the elections by their own charisma.

 

[CLN]

Karunanidhi has shown some sense of humour - though in the style of "KuppuRa vizhundhaalum meesaiyil maN Ottavillai!" kind - by announcing that Tamilnadu people have given him 'proper' rest. Then there is the other news bit: An ardent Amma's fan cuts off her tongue, by way of fulfilling a 'nerthikkadan' for Amma winning so very convincingly! Where else in India other than in our own dear TN where emotionally-charged Tamils can live, such 'fan'tastic things happen? I am somewhat surprised and puzzled (though it is an abashing thought) that no news of "Theekkulithal" events on "kalaignar"'s routing has come yet!

 

[kunjuppu]

CLN,

do you think amma has learned her lessons from previous mistakes and vana vaasam? or will it be another round of revenge politics?

 

[CLN]

CLN,

do you think amma has learned her lessons from previous mistakes and vana vaasam? or will it be another round of revenge politics?

Dear Shri Kunjuppu,

Frankly, I think JJ is too shrewd to fritter away the immense gain she has made. Had it been a case of only slight majority, one might be able to enumerate several reasons for her victory. This kind of a stupendous sweep only means one thing - that TN electorate have given her the crown on a platter, obviously reposing full confidence in her ability to give a good effective and CLEAN Government, not merely resorting to vindictiveness or lavish shows of functions and festivities. I fervently, hope, she does realize it!

 

[sangom]

Dear Shri Kunjuppu,

Frankly, I think JJ is too shrewd to fritter away the immense gain she has made. Had it been a case of only slight majority, one might be able to enumerate several reasons for her victory. This kind of a stupendous sweep only means one thing - that TN electorate have given her the crown on a platter, obviously reposing full confidence in her ability to give a good effective and CLEAN Government, not merely resorting to vindictiveness or lavish shows of functions and festivities. I fervently, hope, she does realize it!

My assessment is that both JJ and MB are highly emotional personalities with very high egos. They will always keep only sycophants near them and prefer to ever hear their eulogies; good advisers cannot exist for both. The eventual outcome will be complete mess up in both WB and TN and return of CPM and DMK after about 3 years (5 years if nothing happens to hasten next elections). MK was not joking when he said about his "rest" which implies "come back", and not "retire and go".

 

[CLN]

Shri Sangom ji,

You have a point there, in your assessment of the two new CM's, but there is a vital difference between the two. MB is becoming the CM for the first time, after a long and arduous struggle. Maybe, with her temperamental and impulsive behaviour, she might be prone to succumb more easily. But, JJ, who has tasted both victory and defeat in the past, and so, chastised somewhat, can be expected to show greater maturity. There is yet another aspect to be remembered here. The disillusionment of WB electorate with CPM is not as strong, IMHO, as that of the TN electorate with the blatant nepotism of MK, particularly after the 2G scam. So, if we have to be cynical (), there is more reason to be cynical about MB than about JJ, I feel. But, hmmm ..., who knows?

 

[sangom]

Shri Sangom ji,

You have a point there, in your assessment of the two new CM's, but there is a vital difference between the two. MB is becoming the CM for the first time, after a long and arduous struggle. Maybe, with her temperamental and impulsive behaviour, she might be prone to succumb more easily. But, JJ, who has tasted both victory and defeat in the past, and so, chastised somewhat, can be expected to show greater maturity. There is yet another aspect to be remembered here. The disillusionment of WB electorate with CPM is not as strong, IMHO, as that of the TN electorate with the blatant nepotism of MK, particularly after the 2G scam. So, if we have to be cynical (), there is more reason to be cynical about MB than about JJ, I feel. But, hmmm ..., who knows?

CLN,

You seem to forget that railways is a much greater empire - even corruption-wise - than all TN govt. departments put together. Again, MB has been a Central Minister, a status JJ is still to see. But when it comes to emotional outbursts or mood swings due to PMS or whatever, both JJ and MB will be the same - women.

 

[Yamaka]

Hello K:

None of the Exit Polls that I read predicted such a landslide in TN (two favored DMK and two others favored AIADMK) - Good for J Jaya!

Congress in TN is once again crushed, although in Assam, WB and Kerala they did very well...

And..BJP is nowhere to be seen!

J Jaya can now go ahead and arrest Stalin, Kani, Alagiri et al.. the Revenge Politics will resume!

I hope her Gang of Thugs will not attack the Election Commissioner or arrest and humiliate The Hindu editor, again! lol

Wait & watch.

 

[Yamaka]

"But when it comes to emotional outbursts or mood swings due to PMS or whatever, both JJ and MB will be the same - women."

Sangom Sir:

At least after seeing the Iron Ladies

Mrs. Indira Gandhi
Mrs. Golda Meir
Mrs. Maggy Thatcher

you will not write such lines!! lol

Am I not sensing a whiff of Male Superiority in the early 21st Century????? I hope the Women in this Forum will not chase you with a "MoRam"!!

Take cover!! lol

Cheers.

Y

 

[Yamaka]

Hello CLN Sir:

J Jaya has a golden opportunity to show TN that she is a different person this time around -

1. She can abolish Bribery and Corruption at all levels of Gov't.
2. She can focus on bringing clean water and electricity to ALL of TN
3. She can unleash all the entreprenuerial talents of ALL in TN
4. She can get rid of "Freebie" schemes that she promised in her Manifesto.....at a loss of several hundred crores of Rs..


I doubt whether she is capable of Personality Change...(not because of the reasons Sangom Sir says!!) at this time in her life.

What will happen if the criminal cases pending against her ruled against her (there is one in Mysore Courts - on Acquisition of Disproportionate Wealth by bribery and corruption)?

Wait & watch.

Cheers.

 

[subbudu1]

My assessment is that both JJ and MB are highly emotional personalities with very high egos. They will always keep only sycophants near them and prefer to ever hear their eulogies; good advisers cannot exist for both. The eventual outcome will be complete mess up in both WB and TN and return of CPM and DMK after about 3 years (5 years if nothing happens to hasten next elections). MK was not joking when he said about his "rest" which implies "come back", and not "retire and go".

It is going to be interesting to see the economic policies of MB. She has convinced Amit Mitra to join her team.
I have been watching him interact with Media as secretary of Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry. Its been always a pleasure to listen to a persuasive speaker like him. I think he would be pro-industry. .
Here is a news piece on Amit Mitra.
At helm, Mitra may help breathe life into West Bengal economy

His profile can be found here.
Amit Mitra: Executive Profile & Biography - BusinessWeek

Interestingly his wife's name is Meera Balakrishnan.

I have been associated with this state. I seriously want this state to move ahead and it will equal the best of the Indian states if there is a good leader at the helm. Its time the Bengali who played a critical role in India's freedom come back right to the top. We may then see the southis coming back to Kolkata, enjoying their work in Park Street. What a place that was in those days. Wish the golden years come back for the welfare of the whole country. The sleeping Bengali needs to wake up.

My best wishes to the Bengalis!

 

[CLN]

Yamaka: Wait & watch

Yes. They are the key words. Whether she will capitalize on this golden opportunity to remain firm to raising above the pulls from her own chumchas (who are no better or no worse than those of MK's, by the way) and fulfill her promises, or, she will give in to pressures and take TN still further down into the quagmire of petty politics, TIME alone can tell!

 

[happyhindu]

Am glad JJ won. The lady has the charisma, the ability, and everything required to be a capable cm. Hope she has grown wiser from her past, and keeps the voters' faith in her.

 

[kunjuppu]

Y,

Y, i do not think bribery and corruption will go away under J or under any other leader. prior to the elections, the candidates, view the money to be spent as 'investments' and a gamble on winning the seat. if the party comes into power, it is jackpot. that is how elections at all levels are viewed in india.

subbudu,

no matter what, those Park Street days, i think, are gone forever. the south is on the rise. the best bengal can do, is to avoid being tagged together with the bimaru and be 'bimarub' actually i like the influx of northies into the south. you go to any private engineering or medical college, and see the numbers from north of vindhyas! astounding. and many of these stay behind, marry within us (B & NB) and provide an infusion of fresh blood and liberal ideas.

subbudu, our tambram girls have the knack of hooking on to high quality spouses. or to look at it from a different angle, high quality men appear to be attracted by our tambram girls - whether it be ravi shankar or amt mitra or chetan bhagat. personally i am proud of such unions. it is good for india. though some might here, question the appropriateness of commenting on something so private as marriage between two individuals.

jai Hind.

 

[kunjuppu]

Am glad JJ won. The lady has the charisma, the ability, and everything required to be a capable cm. Hope she has grown wiser from her past, and keeps the voters' faith in her.

happy, i am glad for the change. any change is good. but not sure if J is a good change. we will see. the track record is not all that great. but then MK's track record was not great till the past 10 years. one thing for sure, tamil nadu is lucky in that, both MK & J are good administrators. the corruption part and ego part, we will have to put up with. i am waiting for the next round of revenge politics.

 

[Yamaka]

As late as 2009 Lok Sabah (MP) Elections, DMK & Allies had a thumping majority.. so what did happen in the last two years that the same Parties lost even the Opposition Party status in 2011 Assembly Election? Here is my two-cents on this -

1. Widespread price increase of food and essential commodities (No Party can solve this.. this is a global issue)
2. Most places had serious power cuts and water scarcity (No Party can solve this, as this is a perennial issue in India)
3. DMK was perceived as a Party of MK's Family Business by most middle class voters (poor people didn't care much about it).
4. Corruption, though is a way of life in most of India, 2G Scandal took a different Mega Dimension..DMK was perceived as engineering a Massive Fraud on India's middle class in siphoning out at least Rs. 220 crores via Raja, Kanimozhi & the Gang to MK's Family Business (Kalaigner TV).

DMK did not explain the 2G accusations well to the electorate, as the topic was very complicated... the middle class voters thought that MK & Gang are quite capable of committing this "crime", although no one has been CONVICTED in the court of law.

All this moved about 12% of the total votes AWAY from the DMK & Allies, which made the difference (since the winner takes all formula of the Elections in India).

J Jaya was in semi-retirement in Kodail Hills in the last 5 years... this Assembly Election was a Referendum on DMK & Allies and NOT about her at all (although, her track record is equally very dismal).

In the next three years, J Jaya must control the price hikes, and power/water scarcity problems... if not, in the 2014 MP Elections people WILL punish her.

In the meantime, she must pray GOD that the criminal case against her in Mysore courts will NOT bite her Achilles' heels!

Anyway, the TN voters are becoming very smart and sophisticated - for they ASK for PERFORMANCE & ACCOUNTABILITY...

Wait & watch.

 

[kunjuppu]

dear Y,

i cannot but admire your faith in the 'smart and sophisticated' TN voters. ofcourse i have left san thome madras 38 years ago, and much must have changed since then.

i do go every year to chennai but always confined to family functions and brief visits to friends. so, i should confess that i do not know the pulse of the common man (assuming him or her to be a lower middle class to slum dwelling folk).

in the in the 50s and 60s, DMK was a process in ferment in my neighbourhood, and i, along with a few tambrams, have attended their meetings. and also periyar's meetings. i would come away impressed, and wished i too belonged to this crowd.

but no sooner, than i visited the pinmen (remember the name for laundry?), general provision store, the cycle rental shop, the rickshaw stand or the barber, than my 'status' in the society would be let known. the animated discussions would stop, or if they went on, it would be muted.

i remember my barber telling me once, that periyar should be no object of admiration for a brahmin boy. so it went. it was them and us.

so, even in 1971, when for the first and only time i voted, i was sure that the congress would win, even though my vote went to the dmk. but surprise of surprise, even kamaraj got trounced.

since then, i have given up trying to gauge the pulse of the tamil nadu voters.

recently, flowing with the trend, canada voted. it went unnoticed. but the country polarized. the centre liberals got beaten up, the right of centre conservatives got a majority, and the left of centre NDP became the chief opposition party. i could not fathom this either, and knowing nothing of the pulse of the electorate, i gave my vote to the animal lovers' party. much to the disgust of my family

Yam, i hope your evaluation is right, and like you, i too wish tamil nadu well.

 

[Yamaka]

"i remember my barber telling me once, that periyar should be no object of admiration for a brahmin boy. so it went. it was them and us."

Dear K:

Similarly, some of the TBs (in Houston) are very happy that J Jaya came to power with a complete sweep this time around...

Many say, "When all is said and done, she is our girl - a TB from Srirangam", knowing fully well that she is a card carrying member of the Dravidian Politics, and she is capable of playing "Revenge Politics" on fellow Periyar's Sons and Anna's Thambigal!!

They forget that

a. She allowed her Gang of Thugs to terrorize the then Election Commissioner in Chennai
b. She allowed her Thugs to throw Acid on an IAS Officer woman, who refused to toe her lines
c. She arrested and jailed the Editor of The Hindu for writing against her
d. She arrested and humiliated the former CM -MK and the Mayor of Chennai Stalin..
e. She indiscriminately fired thousands of State civil servants and teachers...
f. She abhorred the "Freebie Politics" of DMK before, but in this Election she just xeroxed their Manifesto. She decried that the Finance of TN is in the worst possible shape.. but she wants to fulfill her Manifesto this time around!!
g. She was a CONVICTED criminal for bribery and abuse of power by the Special Court in 2000 - but allowed to walk on very shallow technical grounds by the Supreme Court of India (which can happen again for Raja & Co even if they are convicted after a prolonged court process!)

I fear that she will be intoxicated with this electoral sweep... and will grow more arrogant and unpredictable!

Then, the same TBs will say "Oh, well she is not one of 'us', anyway"!!!!

Granted, she CAN do lot of good if she walks away from her usual "Revenge Politics"......

Wait & watch.

p.s. I wonder how ALL the pollsters missed this historic sweep in TN - most predicted a narrow margin of win or loss!!!

 

[saarangam]

This write up on the new CM of Puthuchery, Sri. N.Rangaswami is very interesting.
Courtesy:Malai malar, evening daily of May 14, 2011.
Details

 

[Yamaka]

Majority Principle - Proportional Representation - Coalition Politics: A Paradox in 2011 Election in TN

As per THE HINDU -

1. AIADMK & Allies got 51.8% of the total votes in 2011 and got a whopping 203 MLAs..whereas DMK & Allies got 39.4% of the total votes and got a meager 31 MLAs..

2. Vijayakanth's DMDK got about 8.5% of the total votes in 2006; in 2011 he got only 7.8% of the total votes, but 29 MLAs - the Second largest after the leader AIADMK, hence he becomes the Main Opposition Leader.

3. MK's DMK got 22.4% of the total votes in 2011, but WILL NOT be the Main Opposition Leader!

4. In fact, Congress got MORE votes (9.3% of the total) in 2011 than in 2006 (about 8.7% in 2006), but will be relegated to the very very back bench at the Assembly.

It appears Vijayakanth really hit a Jackpot with fewer votes now than in 2006! That's the power of Coalition Politics!!

What a world of Proportional Representation in India's Democracy! lol

 

[saarangam]

Dear Yamaka
Proportional representation and majority Principle cannot co-exist. Indian democracy has opted for the majority principle and so there is no point in lamenting over the absence of proportional representation.
regards

 

[CLN]

The legislative assemblies not reflecting the proportionate representation (PR) based on the actual votes received by various parties is being talked about every time the election results are announced because, as Shri Saarangam has pointed out, we, in our country, have opted for the majority principle, which is easier to understand for the people in a country where the literacy factor has not been high when our Constitution was made. Maybe, today, we may start reviewing whether any suitable amendment can be brought in in the Constitution to take care of this issue.

In the present circumstances, there are several practical difficulties.

1. We have too numerous parties in our country. PR will be sensible only if we have fewer, but larger parties.

2. Also, unless we have national parties in the real sense, (not like AIADMK, which has the ring of a national party only in name!), PR, especially at the parliamentary level, may not be much relevant.

3. If PR has to be brought in, then the present system of allowing 'Independent' candidates has to go out. In a country where the moment a candidate is denied ticket officially, he/she straight away rushes to the Election Commission Office only to file his/her papers as an 'independent' candidate, the concept of PR will become a mockery.

4. For the same reason, defections from one party to another, leaving (either due to voluntary quitting or by expulsion) a party to float a new party etc. except in the narrow time period between the date EC announces the date(s) for the election and the date for filing of nominations, will have to be banned, if PR has to be also included.

5. Then there is the question of how to accommodate the party nominees through PR. Will they also be made MLA's/Lok Sabha MP's, as the case maybe, or, they will be accommodated as MLC's / Rajya Sabha MP's?

6. Finally their Status: as they are NOT directly elected by the people (they might even be those who got defeated in the election!), will they be given the same status? Can, they (those from the Ruling Party), for example, be made ministers?

Has Indian democracy, proud though we might be about being the largest in the world and all that, matured enough to bring in PR, without discarding the Majority Principle at the same time?

 

[saarangam]

Sri CLN
As you have clearly stated in the context of Indian politics, with a multitude of political parties and thousands of independent candidates PR will be impractical.So Indian democracy has to survive with the present system of majority principle.
regards