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India-Shining? IT boom, 55 billionaires, 50% more farmer-suicides?

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Dr B,

Thank you for your kind and elaborate note.

Although 40 years gone, I recall my prof saying, that most of us feeling we can ‘lick’ inflation. He gave this example: say the inflation was caused by increase in prices of automobile among other thing. So, I did not buy an automobile in the said period, I have ‘saved’ that much or beaten the inflation parameters to the extent the car prices went up, since I was not in the market for a car. Does that make sense?

The value of the u.s. dolla or any other currency, is a myth, ie truth or lie, depending on your viewpoint, collectively agreed to or forced to agreed to, by the countries of the wealth. For whatever reason, the u.s. feds now control the printing of the greenback, but with today’s technology, nothing to prevent china doing the same. Except if china does it, it would be cutting off its nose to spite its face.

Today’s economics really begins with 1990 china, when deng in his own inscrutable way, long thinking, decided to do a number on the world. The Chinese people have been suffering for a thousand years, and a few more years would not hurt. So he started he ‘reform’, which in reality is an economic war against the world.

Knowing the weakness of the world for cheap mass produced produced, and the American obsession with ‘free trade’, he saw an opportunity, to utilize china’s vast human resources of slave labour, to producing safety pins to computers, at a volume, rate and magnitude that no one in the world could match. To do this, he needed a subservient workforce, which was available in the millions through the unemployed landed peasantry. The capital came from the sucker banks in the west, and where there was no money, the Chinese banks borrowed from themselves. (the Chinese banks, it has been rumoured the worst placed financially, but Beijing government rules them with an iron hand to prevent either a run on the money or auditing their books).

One by one factories across the western world closed. There is a sad and poignant documentary produced for the u.s.a. public broadcasting, of how that iconic American brand, rubber maid, was forced to close all its factories in the usa, transfer them to china, and add insult to injury, send their American workers to train their new Chinese replacements. And there are thousands of stories like that spread all over usa, where small proud factory towns have closed sending those workers to brewing mcdonald coffee or making the beds for patel owned days inns.

The next step from china was to addict the world with its cheap goods. Today, the navrathri dolls are made in china. Sivakasi fireworks, once protected post independence from Chinese fireworks, feel threatened again. Why? Because for those who want to burst pattasu, Chinese products are reliable, cheaper and more bang or burst than their sivakasi counterpart, who through all these protected years, continued to exploit child labour, dangerous working conditions, and did not spend one paisa on innovation or improvement. The same lakshmi vedi, bus vaanam and cap dominated the market for 60 years, with nothing new coming up. Only the prices went up.

Then there is the xfer of technology. The apple ipod maybe conceived in san Francisco, but only the Chinese know how to make it. Airbus 320 is now made in china, enabling china to leapfrog 100 years of aerospace technology in a brief span of 5 years. Why? China buys more than 50% of a320, which it pays back, with money earned from Europe, with profits earned from selling Chinese merchandise.

If I were the usa president, I would just prime the printing press and flood the world with worthless dollars. It has been done before in recent memory, when president lyndon Johnson faced with the same dilemma as obama, ie the Vietnam war, Medicaid & medicare (Great Society programs) just let the presses work overtime. The reverberation lasted for years, when we were given 8 to 10% increases in salaries, and felt good but paid 14% mortgage rates.

Maybe we are in for such a correction in the near future? Personally even though I do not like the republicans, it may not be a bad thing for obama to go.
 
Maybe we are in for such a correction in the near future? Personally even though I do not like the republicans, it may not be a bad thing for obama to go.

As far as I can see, Obama IS a Republican to the Bone. Even during his Senate years he seldom voted against any important GOP bill. In fact, he NEVER voted against the major bills, including war funding or patriot act extension. Any democrat proposed bill, he absented himself from voting. He is a complete fraud, who knew that he can talk and fool democrats while acting and fooling republicans.

I don't think China is any different any of the "Western world free market". So what if its government is a single party government? Even US politics is practically a single party drama with dual behavior. The government in China has little or no leverage over the people, other than some rhetoric about "we will arrest you if you call for toppling our government!". You think that isn't true in USA? Think again. If anyone squats in front of Capitol Hills asking for "Regime Change in USA" he will be arrested. I bet top dollars on it. Cindy Sheehan was arrested in front of WH for peacefully protesting the wars. And that happened under Barack Obama!

The west shouldn't be preaching to the east. China has its own problems and found a quick fix solution to economy by exporting to US. Japan showed how it can be done by capturing the export market in 60s and 70s. Technology itself isn't magic. Reverse engineering has been around from the birth of mankind.

In fact, it is the US that wanted a better trade relations with China, in an attempt to make it dependent on exports to US, so that later the US Govt can use that as a leverage to demand political changes in China. Sadly, US assumed that the leverage will be only one way.

The market and world will get along fine if US leaves them on their own without mucking everything up. Nobody in the world hates Canada - Why? They don't go around screwing with the planet.

Yes, Obama should go. He doesn't represent any liberal values. America will vote against him. When push comes to shove the country prefers predictable original crooks (Republicans) over frauds (Democrats).
 
Mr. K: what is a good inflation rate in your opinion.

Reply: Varies according to situation. Two examples:

(a) a large backward country, in which there is a good scope for economic growth, (say for eg. Oil is found) it pays to borrow today (and increase the rate of inflation temporarily) and start the economic activity right away, than to wait for another 10 years for the capital formation to take place and then start the economic activity at higher cost of equipment etc. Till the oil drilling becomes commercially viable, there would be inflation, but once the oil production starts, the inflation would start falling as the loan and interest payments would be met from the newly created “oil wealth”. In short, the cost of acquiring oil wealth should be less than the oil wealth.

(b) in a developed economy like Japan, where the aged population (and hence not able to contribute to the economic growth) is substantial, any inflation is disastrous as the minimum pension requirement would increase and both the pension and increased pension has to be funded or subsidized by the state.

Mr. K: Let me pray tell you where I am coming from.

Mr. K: Way back in economics class, I remember, vaguely my prof telling us that a small amount of inflation is good. It keeps the interest rates high enough, for the savers to get a sense of satisfaction that their money is producing an income and also a reward for thrift.

Reply: It inculcates “savings habit” and gives an economic return for the capital employed.

Mr. K: To the borrower, since inflation, causes in reality a devaluation of the currency, he infact, is paying less in current value than what he borrowed.

Reply: To me it appears to be correct.


Mr. K: And that in itself maybe an incentive for him to pay back.

Reply: I am puzzled by this statement. How can it be an incentive to pay back? In the inflation scenario, the borrower gains by delaying repayment, unless the rate of interest on borrowing is more than the rate of inflation.

Mr. K: Also due to raise in prices, we have increased opportunities to raise prices of goods, and in turn, increased profits, which in turn means increased bonuses (in a good willed ideal world), but no one really cares that this is a discounted money from a year before or such.

Reply: Actually when prices rise, the producers of the goods are unable to pass on the entire increase to the consumers and the producers are compelled to absorb a little bit of extra cost themselves. That is why stock markets tank when inflation is on the higher side.

Mr. K: Of course beyond a certain point, inflation becomes a bitch, because if income increase does not keep up, purchasing power goes down, and along with it comes 1001 woes.


Reply: This is true

Mr. K: On the basis of such a short synopsis as above, what do you think is an ideal inflation rate 4% 6% or more or less? Definitely not more, I think.


Reply: Ideal inflation should be such that one should not be forced to dip into the capital. Zero inflation though most ideal is not recommended because of fears of easily slipping into deflation.

Mr. K: Currently we in Canada get zero to one percent for our savings, which suck, and which havocs those who live on interest income especially retirees, who are forced to dip into their capital, which could be disastrous for everyone.

Reply: This rate of interest is too low and most probably indicates, either (i) ultra-conservatism in lending practices; and/or (ii) lack of entrepreneurship and postponement of big projects required huge capital.

Mr. K: also due to the low interest rates, the housing market has gone haywire, as people are buying houses based on current day mortgages which in reality stretch out into the future. A 1% increase in mortgage, and Canada would see a repeat of u.s. housing crisis.

Real GDP growth and nominal GDP growth would give a better picture on this.

Mr. K: Hence my query to your learned self.

Reply: I have tried to give a simple reply without brining in, money supply, velocity, capital transfers from/to other countries, government monetary policy etc.
 
thank you zeb.

only one clarification. the borrower in question, wishes to pay back the loan, within the term, and not delay beyond. still he would be paying less than borrowed amount, with any inflation.

good reply.
 
thank you zeb.

only one clarification. the borrower in question, wishes to pay back the loan, within the term, and not delay beyond. still he would be paying less than borrowed amount, with any inflation.

good reply.

Not with "any" inflation. Two points come here: (a) If the rate of inflation is higher than his borrowing rate, he is surely repaying less than the amount borrowed. (ii) if the cost of asset (say, the house cost after the US sub prime crisis) comes down drastically, he has acquired the asset at an higher price. His savings on inflation is over-shadowed by the drastic fall in the price of the asset he acquired
 
As far as I can see, Obama IS a Republican to the Bone. Even during his Senate years he seldom voted against any important GOP bill. In fact, he NEVER voted against the major bills, including war funding or patriot act extension. Any democrat proposed bill, he absented himself from voting. He is a complete fraud, who knew that he can talk and fool democrats while acting and fooling republicans.

I don't think China is any different any of the "Western world free market". So what if its government is a single party government? Even US politics is practically a single party drama with dual behavior. The government in China has little or no leverage over the people, other than some rhetoric about "we will arrest you if you call for toppling our government!". You think that isn't true in USA? Think again. If anyone squats in front of Capitol Hills asking for "Regime Change in USA" he will be arrested. I bet top dollars on it. Cindy Sheehan was arrested in front of WH for peacefully protesting the wars. And that happened under Barack Obama!

The west shouldn't be preaching to the east. China has its own problems and found a quick fix solution to economy by exporting to US. Japan showed how it can be done by capturing the export market in 60s and 70s. Technology itself isn't magic. Reverse engineering has been around from the birth of mankind.

In fact, it is the US that wanted a better trade relations with China, in an attempt to make it dependent on exports to US, so that later the US Govt can use that as a leverage to demand political changes in China. Sadly, US assumed that the leverage will be only one way.

The market and world will get along fine if US leaves them on their own without mucking everything up. Nobody in the world hates Canada - Why? They don't go around screwing with the planet.

Yes, Obama should go. He doesn't represent any liberal values. America will vote against him. When push comes to shove the country prefers predictable original crooks (Republicans) over frauds (Democrats).

"Yes, Obama should go. He doesn't represent any liberal values. America will vote against him. When push comes to shove the country prefers predictable original crooks (Republicans) over frauds (Democrats)."

Well.. from my vantage point, Barack Hussein Obama has proven to be a Center Left, and Not Far Left, which is not a bad thing...

I have heard Far Left complaining a lot about BHO (cf HuffingtonPost).. that he is spineless and is not picking up a REAL fight with the Republicans etc etc... I also see their point.

After Columbia, BHO took up a job as a Community Organizer for a wage of $10K per year... to me that's the soul of a Progressive (as my son is; after Stanford, he has become a Volunteer Medical Missionary for a year in Haiti: he is given two meals a day, and a dark hot dungeon to sleep in the night!).

To say that BHO is a Republican is like saying God Himself is an Atheist!

As a PUMA, I did not vote for BHO in 2008.. I thought HRC was robbed of her Nomination even after getting MORE Primary votes than BHO. That was the problem of the intolerable incompetence of DNC and not BHO himself.

As a Progressive to the core, BHO passed the Stimulus Bill and the Healthcare Reform Bill without the help of a single Republican... on the way he used up all of his political capital.

To his very bad luck, even after about $850 billions of Stimulus and about $2 trillions of monetary Stimulus by the Fed, the economy is not getting primed up to run at a 3-4% GDP creating more than 200,000 jobs a month... this is BHO's Achilles' Heel..

Consequently, most of his own supporters are jobless and hurting seriously (Youngsters just out of college, Blacks, Hispanics, Women and people making less than $50K a year) in this Deep Job Recession.

We have about 16 months left to jolt up the Economy before the next Election... BHO must talk to his own supporters and enthuse them. If they all stay home in Nov, 2012 then the game is over for BHO...

As such, BHO will be re-elected with at least 300 Electoral Votes, if he can bring his own supporters to the polling booth...

Republicans - the sloppy Elephants - are having fun in Iowa... our Gov Rick Perry is going to be the Leader of the Pack very soon.

He will get the Nomination because of his "Executive Experience" and "Moral Majority Crowd"... but he will lose big time at the polls to BHO..

I am a Texan... I know Perry is a Thin Skinned Redneck!

Wait & watch.
 
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