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Global Currency Crisis

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rvr,

while i love india's rate of growth, and also that of asia, i am also somewhat skeptical as to what these figures mean to the guy on the street.

hopefully it translates into more jobs for the youth and for the first time lookers for work.

i am also happy that it means consumption of durables for the common folks - scooter, fridge, gas stove, p.c and cell phones. all these were not heard of or beyond the reach of families like the one i grew up. yet we were considered middle class.

also, i hope, that stuff like beggars scooping the thrown out leaves out of weddings and those collecting rags, these too will be instances of the past, so that if and when these are mentioned, these will sound quaint enough to gush out outrages at the accuser.

all in all, good stuff must come out, and reach the poorest of the poor - as a planned entitlement, and not as a 'trickle-down-effect'.

we need the heart.
 
in a lighter tone, the whole global economy seems to be summed up in this humorous quote:
"Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair." (SamEwing)
i think we are relatively on a good wkt, as far as resilience is concerned? indian economy has been weathering the storm so far? - rj
 
Kunjuppu ji,

India has to really go for inclusive growth. If we don't do it, then we may face Naxalite/Maoist problems.

Fortunately in the last few years we have NRGES under an act of Parliament by the Central Government

Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Gurantee Act

Under the above, every family is provided with guaranteed employment for 100 days at Rs.80 per day.

This is an excellent scheme which has eliminated starvation deaths in rural areas.

State Governments have also started welfare measures. Tamilnadu Government gives 20 Kgs rice per month in ration shops at Re. 1 per kg and is implementing a housing scheme for all the citizens. They are already giving electricity for poor at Rs.2 per month.

Such welfare measures will definitely enhance inclusive growth agenda.

All the best
 
Asia will equal usa and europe India and chaina plays leading role as it is having big market. Go to the link below With India, China leading, Asia set to match US, EuropeWashington, June 15With India and China leading, Asia's economy will be as large as that of the US and Europe, accounting for more than a third of global output in the next five years, the IMF projects."China and India are leading the way, but the phenomenon is by no means limited to these two countries," writes Anoop Singh, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) director for the Asia and Pacific, in the Finance & Development Magazine released Tuesday.With India, China leading, Asia set to match US, Europe
 
Asia is emerging as a global economic power house

According to IMF, Asia is emerging as a global economic power house.

fullstory

All the best
 
RVR said:
According to IMF, Asia is emerging as a global economic power house.

fullstory

All the best
Click to expand...

rvr,

emerging as an economic power is quite different from providing a good lifestyle for all its citizens.

japan may be #2 economy in the world, but its citizens still have a close to 3rd world lifestyle i think - long hours, poor housing, no holidays and overall dissatisfaction with their lot.

compared to that, the western europeans have developed a post 2nd world war society which is not only aims at egalitarian, but has succeeded in providing a quality of life, which gives the average man, 4 weeks holidays per year minimum, good health care, subsidized higher education and other parameters which measure social security.

add to these countries new zealand, australia, canada, but not the usa. surprisingly, many of the caribbean countries like bahamas, barbados, st lucia etc have a very equitable society, wtih no overt signs of poverty, and a very high level of happiness index.

singapore, i think falls somewhere in between.
 
kunjuppu said:
rvr,

emerging as an economic power is quite different from providing a good lifestyle for all its citizens.

japan may be #2 economy in the world, but its citizens still have a close to 3rd world lifestyle i think - long hours, poor housing, no holidays and overall dissatisfaction with their lot.

compared to that, the western europeans have developed a post 2nd world war society which is not only aims at egalitarian, but has succeeded in providing a quality of life, which gives the average man, 4 weeks holidays per year minimum, good health care, subsidized higher education and other parameters which measure social security.

add to these countries new zealand, australia, canada, but not the usa. surprisingly, many of the caribbean countries like bahamas, barbados, st lucia etc have a very equitable society, wtih no overt signs of poverty, and a very high level of happiness index.

singapore, i think falls somewhere in between.
Click to expand...

Kunjuppu ji,

India is moving towards an inclusive growth for the past few years.

Rice is supplied through public distribution system at Rs. 1 per Kg.

Medical Insurance scheme for poorer sections are available free of cost.

Tamilnadu government has committed to provide permanent houses to all within next five years.

Not only collateral free loans are available for higher education, interest portion is also subsidized by Government of India

http://www.education.nic.in/uhe/IntSubsidyonELS.pdf

National Rural Employment Guarantee scheme provides jobs for all poor people for atleast 100 days in a year

Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

All the above have contributed greatly to the poorer sections and we are able to see the difference at ground level.

With a GDP growth of 8% plus, I am sure things are going to change for the better in the near future.

India has adopted lot of welfare measures to take care of poorer section which will ensure equitable growth.

Today in Chennai, lot of small and medium enterprises have started facing labour shortage. People from Bihar, Orissa etc are migrating to Chennai for blue collar jobs.

There is no starvation death for the past few years.

Naxalite/Maoist problems are mostly due to land acquisition by Multi National companies and Governments are now waking up to the situation.

Indian growth story is likely to continue for the next 40 years or so. It is predicted that India will become third largest economy in the world by 2030.

When both USA and Europe are facing severe financial problems, it is not at all felt here. It only proves that Indian financial systems are well managed.

We had a small drop in GDP growth for the past two years but it is becoming a thing of past now. This year country is likely to touch 8.5% growth this year.

India is not emulating USA, Greece, Italy etc.

The dual shock in USA and Europe has very little effect in India.

Now I am sure the country after surviving the global economic crisis will grab the opportunities for growth.

China's growth story also may slow down in the future and only India will have continuous growth for the next forty years or so.

All the best
 
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RVR said:
Kunjuppu ji,

India is moving towards an inclusive growth for the past few years.

Rice is supplied through public distribution system at Rs. 1 per Kg.

Medical Insurance scheme for poorer sections are available free of cost.

Tamilnadu government has committed to provide permanent houses to all within next five years.

Not only collateral free loans are available for higher education, interest portion is also subsidized by Government of India

http://www.education.nic.in/uhe/IntSubsidyonELS.pdf

National Rural Employment Guarantee scheme provides jobs for all poor people for atleast 100 days in a year

Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

All the above have contributed greatly to the poorer sections and we are able to see the difference at ground level.

With a GDP growth of 8% plus, I am sure things are going to change for the better in the near future.

India has adopted lot of welfare measures to take care of poorer section which will ensure equitable growth.

Today in Chennai, lot of small and medium enterprises have started facing labour shortage. People from Bihar, Orissa etc are migrating to Chennai for blue collar jobs.

There is no starvation death for the past few years.

Naxalite/Maoist problems are mostly due to land acquisition by Multi National companies and Governments are now waking up to the situation.

Indian growth story is likely to continue for the next 40 years or so. It is predicted that India will become third largest economy in the world by 2030.

When both USA and Europe are facing severe financial problems, it is not at all felt here. It only proves that Indian financial systems are well managed.

We had a small drop in GDP growth for the past two years but it is becoming a thing of past now. This year country is likely to touch 8.5% growth this year.

India is not emulating USA, Greece, Italy etc.

The dual shock in USA and Europe has very little effect in India.

Now I am sure the country after surviving the global economic crisis will grab the opportunities for growth.

China's growth story also may slow down in the future and only India will have continuous growth for the next forty years or so.

All the best
Click to expand...


:rapture:
 
RVR said:
India is moving towards an inclusive growth for the past few years.
Click to expand...

I may sound like a pessimist but my view is that inclusive or otherwise, India's prosperity will come to an end, the moment China completes its 10 million computer workers with English knowledge. India will then not be able to compete with China unless our IT sector wages are reduced to abysmally low levels.

Rice is supplied through public distribution system at Rs. 1 per Kg.
Click to expand...
This is only in T. Nadu and one doesn't know from where the subsidy for this comes. Till we know that and also how it affects the middle class people, we cannot say that this is a good measure.

Not only collateral free loans are available for higher education, interest portion is also subsidized by Government of India

http://www.education.nic.in/uhe/IntSubsidyonELS.pdf
Click to expand...
We have no idea how this works in practice. The massive write-off of agricultural loans was a sham.

National Rural Employment Guarantee scheme provides jobs for all poor people for atleast 100 days in a year

Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Click to expand...
We must get hold of some independent study/ studies before believing in any of these schemes. For every one rupee given by the govt. for subsidy or helping the poor only about 10 paisa reaches the ultimate por person. The rest goes to create pockets of unearned incomes.

All the above have contributed greatly to the poorer sections and we are able to see the difference at ground level.
Click to expand...
My friend who is in the Banking sector once described the utter poverty in VeerakEralan Pudur near Tinnevelly and how none of these schemes has touched the people till 2009.

With a GDP growth of 8% plus, I am sure things are going to change for the better in the near future.
Click to expand...
GDP is not at all an indicator of the common man's lot; it shows how much the middlemen have profited from the blood and toil of the poor.

Naxalite/Maoist problems are mostly due to land acquisition by Multi National companies and Governments are now waking up to the situation.
Click to expand...
The naxalite/maoist problem is not that simple. Exploitation of the Adivasis for generations has disillusioned them and they are encouraged to revolt against the Govt. system in order to show their displeasure and resentment. The fact that they have access to modern weapons and equipments and the GOI is not even able to decide how to deal with the problem, shows how serious it is. Secondly, you will see the Maoist/Naxalite chain like a 'slash' in the map of india running from Darjeeling to Wayanad through W. Bengal, Orissa hill areas, Telengana.

Indian growth story is likely to continue for the next 40 years or so. It is predicted that India will become third largest economy in the world by 2030.
Click to expand...
This can be an astrological prediction but not an economist's projection. Our IT bubble may burst at any moment due to cut-throat competition from China and that will be the end of our growth story.
When both USA and Europe are facing severe financial problems, it is not at all felt here. It only proves that Indian financial systems are well managed.
Click to expand...
USA had problems with its financial institutions but the Govt. as such has had no problem. For decades now, the US govt. is the world's largest borrower and it will happily continue that way till China unloads its huge Dollar balances. China is using it as a weapon to discipline US and keep US at its beck and call.

China's growth story also may slow down in the future and only India will have continuous growth for the next forty years or so.
Click to expand...
This can happen only if there is a great upsurge in China and it becomes a western type of democracy, as India is. Otherwise China will continue to provide the world's cheapest goods and go on amassing its reserves.
 
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rvr, sangom,

very good posts.

rvr, your post is a reflection of the optimisim and sunshine, which i am more like, but many times wishful thinking.

sangom, i am hoping, that reality is between your analysis and rvr's optimism.

i agree maoists are an issue where we have no clue. barring a wholesale destruction of their culture, so that we can access their rich forests and lands, we have no recourse. i think so, at this point, anyway.

people underestimate china. it is overall still a poor country, with its peasant society's abysmally low standards of living. even urban areas, the exploitation of the peasantry to feed the factories and the service industries, is much like the migrant labour schemes practised in apartheid south africa.

because this is internally within china, and with the approval of the chinese government, for the general benefit of living standards of the entire world (who has not profited from cheap chinese goods?) we all turn a blind eye. which we did not do in south africa, as the exploitation was blatantly white vs black.

ideally, it would behoove china well to spend the trillions of foreign exchange for its internal poor, but that will bring its own inflationary & other problems.

chinese leaders, unlike the democracies, rule for life. hence their management lifespan and legacy horizon is far far longer than singh or obama. that the chinese leadership has gone roughshod over landowners in cities to build their cookie cutter monstosities of airports and apartments, that their rivers are polluted to cause diseases beyond cure are things the world does not care.

yesterday there was news that china, is plannig huge coal powered electricity plants. these are the most polluting, but china doesn't care about the world or pollution.

today there is report that in coming G20 meet, the value of yuan is non negotiable. maybe, it is time, for obama, to prime the printing presses and flood the world with paper dollahs? :behindsofa:
 
Naxal problem can be solved politically. Please read the article of S A Aiyar in Times of India

No military solutions for Maoism : India : S A Aiyar : TOI Blogs

I wish other states take a clue from Andhra model of solving naxalite problem.

I think whatever social development which is happening in Kerala, Tamilnadu, Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat will be followed by other states.

Bihar was totally written off but development agenda is going on in Bihar now.

Backward Bihar goes for the smartest cards : Politics : S A Aiyar : TOI Blogs

If Bihar can be transformed, why not other states?

May be there could be a time delay but India's growth story is irreversible.

Let us hope things change for the better.

All the best
 
RVR said:
Naxal problem can be solved politically. Please read the article of S A Aiyar in Times of India

No military solutions for Maoism : India : S A Aiyar : TOI Blogs

I wish other states take a clue from Andhra model of solving naxalite problem.

I think whatever social development which is happening in Kerala, Tamilnadu, Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat will be followed by other states.

Bihar was totally written off but development agenda is going on in Bihar now.

Backward Bihar goes for the smartest cards : Politics : S A Aiyar : TOI Blogs

If Bihar can be transformed, why not other states?

May be there could be a time delay but India's growth story is irreversible.

Let us hope things change for the better.

All the best
Click to expand...

The Andhra naxal problem has not been "solved" but only kept at bay. Pl. see

Extortion rampant in north Telangana areas | Deccan Chronicle | 2010-06-02

Examining The Myth Of Maoists Concern For Tribal Welfare By Nirmalangshu Mukherji

The smart card in Bihar for bio-metric id has not yet taken off I think. Shri S.A. Aiyar seems to have an agenda for his writings; they don't seem to be reports from the field.

The "shopkeepers-acting-as-bank-correspondents" scheme has ever so many loopholes in the scheme itself that I shudder to think what will happen particularly in a state like Bihar.

Overall, I feel one should not place too much reliance on Aiyar's reports.
 
When both USA and Europe are facing severe financial problems, it is not at all felt here. It only proves that Indian financial systems are well managed.
USA had problems with its financial institutions but the Govt. as such has had no problem. For decades now, the US govt. is the world's largest borrower and it will happily continue that way till China unloads its huge Dollar balances. China is using it as a weapon to discipline US and keep US at its beck and call.
Click to expand...
China's leverage in using its substantial investment in US treasury bills to arm twist US has limited scope. US is not a small banana republic. If US decides to just export 10% more of its grains it can wipe out its liability under its treasury bills. And doing that is just child's play for US.Its fertile and cultivable land mass is its biggest asset which it can put to use very effectively. So US borrowing is not just kiteflying. It has its base in its assets and its GDP.Chinese also know their limitations in this area.What landed US and European financial systems in trouble is their greed for profits--profits disproportionate to their assets. Indian system has been well managed so far. About future we can not be sure.

China's growth story also may slow down in the future and only India will have continuous growth for the next forty years or so.
This can happen only if there is a great upsurge in China and it becomes a western type of democracy, as India is. Otherwise China will continue to provide the world's cheapest goods and go on amassing its reserves.
Click to expand...
China will grow and India will also grow because the fundamentals are strong. But sustaining the growth in the long run will depend on which country invests more in R&D.If sensible investments are made now onwards, India's growth may surpass China's.
 
Hi,

One way to attempt to solve the Naxalite problem is to focus less on becoming larger and larger economy - which is not necessarily a bad thing - but focus more on human development.

Here are some rankings I gathered from the web. To get an idea how far behind India is, relative to the rest of the world, I have included the ranking of Sri Lanka, a country that was bogged down with civil war for the last 30 years, and Cuba a country that is kept under crippling economic pressure by the U.S., and a communist country to boot.

The lower the ranking number, the better the ranking of the country.

Per capita GDP:
India = 139
Sri Lanka = 113
Cuba = 88

Human development Index:
India = 134
Sri Lanka = 102
Cuba = 51

Environmental Performance Index:
India = 123
Sri Lanka = 58
Cuba = 9

Even in peace index, India that prides itself on its legacy of ahimsa and satyagragha, ranks barely above Sri Lanka and way below Cuba.

Global peace index:
India = 109
Sri Lanka = 111
Cuba = 59

Cheers (?)
 
suraju06 said:
China's leverage in using its substantial investment in US treasury bills to arm twist US has limited scope. US is not a small banana republic. If US decides to just export 10% more of its grains it can wipe out its liability under its treasury bills. And doing that is just child's play for US.Its fertile and cultivable land mass is its biggest asset which it can put to use very effectively. So US borrowing is not just kiteflying. It has its base in its assets and its GDP.Chinese also know their limitations in this area.What landed US and European financial systems in trouble is their greed for profits--profits disproportionate to their assets. Indian system has been well managed so far. About future we can not be sure.
Click to expand...


From the US Govt sources as well as wikipedia, I get the following numbers:

US agricultural trade surplus 2009 =26,912 m $
(ERS/USDA Data - Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States (FATUS))

The Nation’s international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $40.3 billion in April from $40.0 billion (revised) in March, as exports decreased more than imports. (June 10, 2010)
(Foreign Trade - MAIN)

Foreign debt of US 13,450,000 m $(as of june 2009)
(List of countries by external debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

So, even if US exports all its surplus agricultural products it will take 13,450,000 divided by 26,912 , i.e.,500 years to pay off its foreign debts.
The total agricultural production of US in 2007 was 329.2 billion $ (329200 m $). So even if US exports all of its agricultural produce, with the population starving, it will take 13,450,000 divided by 329200, i.e., 41 years to clear its entire foreign debt. The scenario, therefore, does not seem to be as rosy as you think it to be.
 
Whatever statistics available about India is already few years old. The welfare measures have started recently.

Within India also Bihar, MP, Rajastan, UP (BIMARU states), Orissa, WB etc constitute major portion on the average.

Well developed states like Kerala, TN, Maharastra, Gujarat, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab etc doesn't have much of poverty. Personally we are facing labour shortage in Chennai City and people from Bihar and Orissa are filling the shortage to some extent. Even in remote places like Tiruppur and Sivakasi, there is tremendous shortage of labour.

May be the country is at a take of stage right now but people below poverty line will get reduced drastically in the coming decade.

All the best
 
RVR said:
Whatever statistics available about India is already few years old. The welfare measures have started recently.

Within India also Bihar, MP, Rajastan, UP (BIMARU states), Orissa, WB etc constitute major portion on the average.
Click to expand...

What this means is, if we look at just these states, then the ranking will be even lower, may be at the very bottom next to Ethiopia, Congo, and Afghanistan. Is it any wonder then the Naxalites are able to have sway in these parts.

Economic growth means nothing without economic justice. All the schemes coming out of New Delhi are schemes only, schemes to line the pockets of everyone in between the Treasury and the needy.

Hope someday Indians will achieve the same level of human development as at least the Sri Lankans -- reaching the level of the Cubans is very well impossible during my life time or that of my nephews and nieces who still live in India.

Cheers!
 
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