personally, i would not be too surprised if trump wins. hilary has a reputation for the sleaze. she would get elected primarily because afro americans and mexican hispanics in the usa will vote overwhelmingly for her.
as we know in india, a dedicated mass vote by a single group, has out of proportion in election results, assuming other communities are evenly split. which is why the politicans pamper to special interest groups.
having said the above, i have a gut feeling, that the usa is increasingly polarized with the whites voting as a bloc, in many regions.
the thing with trump, is that in his agenda, there is atleast one issue, which a person feels strongly about - illegal immigration, loss of jobs, wall street greed. the whites who support trump, not necessarily want a small government. they want their entitlements and freebies from uncle sam, but they all appear to fear the rise of minorities to proportion of power, outside of their population size. also the minorities are growing at such a rate, that the critical white base is now alarmingly fast declining.
this is what i think.