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Post demonisation scenario


The pros and cons of demontisation by our Hon'ble P.M is being widely discussed and felt everywhere. No trace of bringing back the black money. Initially there was some effect of demontisation. Real estate is one of the areas where it worked very well and was stable and moderate. But now the old tactics by brokers once again revived They are openly asking black/white components.Back to square 1


New member
I think they should bring back cash withdrawal restrictions. Then people won't be able to pay in black.

BTW, IT dept often does severe audit of real estate transactions.


Well-known member
Are we not looking at demonetization only a tool for return of money to RBI?

Does it not serve any other purpose indirectly in favor of the Govt like reduction in real estate value, filing of IT returns, payment of huge sums etc?


Well-known member
I think they should bring back cash withdrawal restrictions. Then people won't be able to pay in black.

BTW, IT dept often does severe audit of real estate transactions.

Sorry to disappoint you, that only happens if you do not have connections.
A lawyer and a good friend of Jaitly just bought a house for 15 crores and paid 5 crores in black. All the contractors used for improvements were paid in cash. This lawyer keeps crores in cash and foreign accounts. Demonetisation was a minor inconvenience to him.

I agree with the OP, It was a grand charade, it achieved nothing of substance.

Some bank employees became rich in the process, the poor got trapped and lost.
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Well-known member
dear sri prasad,

please review your title.

obvious mis-spelling and perhaps coincidental.
The Op is by Vijiseeniji, The title is chosen by the person writing the Original Post.
I do make spelling mistakes, and I am not a good writer, so that criticism is valid.

But my post#4 in this thread passed grammar and spell check, but then again that is American English.

Any way I can not edit a post, that is that old. Only the moderator can edit post older than few days.
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Well-known member

No concrete outcome achieved. DeMo largely considered a failure

Demonetisation of high-value currency -- Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes -- that constituted 86 per cent of the money in circulation in November 2016 was a step taken to bringing back money that was out of the banking system. The government initially expected currency worth Rs 10-11 lakh crore to be returned to banks. However, the government and the RBI faced criticism because most of the currency in circulation was recovered, and only 1.04 per cent was not returned. The total value of invalidated Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes at the time of demonetisation was Rs 15.44 lakh crore, out of which only Rs 16,000 crore was not returned to the RBI. The central bank spent Rs 21,000 crore in handling the mechanics of demonetisation, including printing of notes.

In essence, demonetisation has not met the government's expectation of wiping out black money from the Indian economy.


PM Modi's promise to bring back black money may not have been fulfilled, but his policies have definitely made an impact. Measures like IDS and PMGKY instilled fear in the minds of unscrupulous businessmen, which resulted in the declaration of Rs 70,250 crore undeclared income. This income was taxed at upwards of 45 per cent, raising the government's revenue.

Meanwhile, tax compliance has seen a definite boost under PM Modi. The government managed to widen its tax base causing an uptrend in the tax revenue estimates for the current years at Rs 22.71 lakh crore. While indirect tax collection reached Rs 7.35 lakh crore till November 30, 2017, the Income Tax Department detected undisclosed income worth Rs 13,376 crore.

Amendments to Benami Act in 2016 saw provisional attachments involving Benami transactions worth Rs 4,100 crore.

Demonetisation, however, attracted huge backlash from opposition as well as the Supreme Court. Its planning and execution were questioned. While the government expected most of the demonetised currency, which would be black money, would not be returned after the note ban, only 1.04 per cent or Rs 16,000 crore did not came back to the banks. Also, the RBI has not declared the actual cost of demonetisation on the Indian economy yet as they are are still being processed.

The monetary impact of foreign policy measures like GAAR and DTAA are yet to be ascertained. Moreover, significant decline in illegal deposits by Indians in Swiss banks since the Modi government assumed power does not mean that we have stopped parking funds abroad, which begs the question of where are Indians hiding their black money now.

The Modi government has so far unlocked black money worth around Rs 1,14,110 crore. This includes money disclosed under the government's income disclosure scheme (Rs 74,350), benami transactions (Rs 4,300 crore) and income tax raids (Rs 35,460 crore). Also, a drop in money stashed by Indians in Swiss banks since 2014 is close to $1.77 billion (Rs 12,139 crore).

However, the parallel black economy of India is estimated to be around half of India's current GDP of $2.60 trillion(2017).

The big question is whether detection of Rs 1,14,110 crore as black money enough.

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Well-known member
Black money was a powerful poll setting agenda in 2014 that aided the Modi wave to push the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance to power. Four years later, the countdown has begun for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and black money is likely to be a key issue for both the BJP and Opposition.

Some other failures

Under the sub-head 'Building India', the
BJP manifesto mentioned that its government would ensure shelter equipped with electricity, water, toilets and access to everybody. However, this is far from the reality in most parts of the country.

The BJP had promised to launch 'Diamond Quadrilateral' bullet train network project. However, it has made only a marginal headway on the Ahmedabad-Mumbai stretch.
The ground-breaking ceremony was held for this stretch before the Gujarat Assembly election last year. Besides that, there has been no development for other stretches.

The BJP leaders had promised to bring back black money stashed in overseas banks. However, this remains a promise.

The Opposition, particularly Rahul Gandhi, has been taking a jibe at the BJP while asking people whether the Modi government has deposited Rs 15 lakh in their bank accounts.

The manifesto said the government was committed to 33 per cent reservation in parliamentary and state assemblies through a constitutional amendment.
The Women's Reservation Bill was passed by the Rajya Sabha in March 2010 when the Congress-led UPA government was in power. The Bill is pending in the Lok Sabha.
Despite enjoying a majority in the Lok Sabha, the Modi government has not brought the Bill for passage in the lower house. The government has only three more Parliament sessions left to ensure passage of the Bill before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are held.

Discussing administration, the manifesto said the hallmarks of BJP's governance model would be it being people-centric, policy-driven, time bound delivery and 'Minimum Government, Maximum Governance'.
However, the size of Modi's council of ministers negates the hallmarks. At present, there are 73 ministers, excluding the prime minister. The PM can add only eight more ministers as the total number of the council of ministers, excluding him, cannot exceed 81, which is 15 per cent of the Lok Sabha's strength of 543 MPs, as per the Constitution (Ninety-first Amendment) Act, 2004.

Discussing 'Greater attention to border areas', the manifesto promised to ensure "return of Kashmiri pandits to Jammu Kashmir, establishing good governance in Jammu and Kashmir while abrogating Article 370 of the Constitution".
But neither the Kashmiri pandits have returned to the Valley nor Article 370 has been abrogated despite the BJP ruling the state for the first time in alliance with the PDP.Despite the passage of four years, the Modi government has not appointed a Lokpal. The issue seems to have been sidelined.

Modiji is no better than other politicians, but he is glib talker.

I would rather have him as PM than any other jokers.


What about tail end batsman's scorecard
NPA ------
Relation with neighbouring countries Pak , Nepal etc?------
Bye the way I regret for the spelling mistake in the caption .Thanks for the correction . It is due to my late night submissions.

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