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National Elections - 2019 prepoll prediction !

Jaykay767

Well-known member
The exit polls looks too good to be true !!

In almost all eections, you will see huge variation in exit polls. In this case everyone is uniformly predicting a big win from 287 to 303. Not one poll below 270 for NDA.

In states where many farmers protested and some where they voted for congress in assembly states are showing a big sweep for BJP.
 

Brahmanyan

Well-known member
Exit polls are projections on results. They are arrived on the sample survey of opinions of voters. But the actual figures will be known only after the counting on 23rd May. They may not differ very much from the exit polls.
I am surprised by the reasons given by some of the factors that may work against NDA Government. One is sufferings of Agriculturist. Agriculture is a State Subject under our Constitution. Centre has very minimal part in it. Similarly GST.
The rates of GST taxes are decided after consultation with the States only. Agreed some of the rates are too high. This doesn't affect the common voters, most of whom are below poverty level. Most important is galloping prices of all essential commodities. People should not forget that their earnings have also increased accordingly. People living outside India can compare the prices and salary earnings abroad.
We can take up these subjects for discussion once the counting of votes are over on 23rd May , and the new Government formed.
Brahmanyan,
Bangalore.
 

mkrishna100

Well-known member
”நேற்று வந்தது Exit Poll - ஆ?; பொய்” - தராசு ஷ்யாம் ஆவேசம் | Tharasu Shyam | Exit Poll 2019
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
The 242 projection by one of the exit polls and the Satta bazaar seems more likely. I find the other exit polls too good to be true !!

Let's see how the actual results come in !!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member

This is an interesting approach. Projected results are not dependent on exit polling, but more in data analytics based on swing percentages in each state.

This eliminates the issue of whether voters are lying to the pollsters or not. This gives NDA - 166 seats, but pegs UPA at 200 (this is quite high), and others at 176.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Well articulated and well said by Ashutosh as always !!!


"But the bigger question is - has this political Hindu acquired such a vast proportion that its economic personality has become a non-entity? That it does not matter if sons and daughters are not getting jobs or that their buying power has diminished in last few years and they cannot go out and buy things like cars when they want? Or that savings are shrinking and businesses are running at a loss? The fact today is that India, despite being the fastest growing economy, is no longer in good health. Every economic indicator is telling a horrible story and economists are warning that India is slowly heading for recession and the days ahead will be difficult for the country as a whole.

I am not willing to believe that this new political Hindu has become so oblivious of its economic identity that the daily suffering has no meaning. Data shows that unemployment has broken all records; it is the highest in 45 years and shows no sign of dipping. "

Lot of Indians are waiting to precisely find this out on May 23rd !!!
 

Brahmanyan

Well-known member
I do not know whether the actual results will tally with exit polls in other States, but the figures shown in exit polls for Karnataka seems to be realistic. I am afraid that the "Cat and Mouse" gadhbandan here will be in for trouble after 23rd May results !
Brahmanyan
Bangalore.
 

mkrishna100

Well-known member
Brahmanyan Sir

The answer lies in analyzing the vote percentage and not the seats ( i.e after results are declared officially ) . For eg in TN Assembly elections 2016 AIADMKI got just 40,000 votes more than DMK and they are successfully ruling and that was because the Vote was split by the Vijaykant led Group MNK ( Makkal Nala Kootani ) which got more than 1% vote and everyone said that it ( i,e MNK Front ) was sponsored by JAYA Herself through VAIKO to prevent DMK from Coming to power by splitting the opposition votes .

Now the same can happen at the Parliament elections in 2019 where the opposition parties are not standing fully unified and are scattered .So if BJP gets 35% vote Congress gets 30% vote and the scattered opposition gets 35% vote the winner is BJP even when the Combined anti BJP vote is 65% .

This will be more visible in States like UP which is going to be the decider . Whether Akilesh Mayawati helps checkmate Modi or helps him win by splitting the votes .
So we need to wait for the Voting Percentage to get the clear picture .
In essence when the opposition is scattered it only helps the ruling party mostly be it at the State of Centre .
 

Brahmanyan

Well-known member
To predict results in Tamil Nadu is very difficult. This is the first election TN is facing without the presence of strong leaders of two major Political Parties.
Strong preventive actions by EC and Central Government agencies towards distribution of free bees and cash is another factor, which may affect the results

Brahmanyan,
Bangalore.
 

Brahmanyan

Well-known member
Brahmanyan Sir

The answer lies in analyzing the vote percentage and not the seats ( i.e after results are declared officially ) . For eg in TN Assembly elections 2016 AIADMKI got just 40,000 votes more than DMK and they are successfully ruling and that was because the Vote was split by the Vijaykant led Group MNK ( Makkal Nala Kootani ) which got more than 1% vote and everyone said that it ( i,e MNK Front ) was sponsored by JAYA Herself through VAIKO to prevent DMK from Coming to power by splitting the opposition votes .

Now the same can happen at the Parliament elections in 2019 where the opposition parties are not standing fully unified and are scattered .So if BJP gets 35% vote Congress gets 30% vote and the scattered opposition gets 35% vote the winner is BJP even when the Combined anti BJP vote is 65% .

This will be more visible in States like UP which is going to be the decider . Whether Akilesh Mayawati helps checkmate Modi or helps him win by splitting the votes .
So we need to wait for the Voting Percentage to get the clear picture .
In essence when the opposition is scattered it only helps the ruling party mostly be it at the State of Centre .
Dear Sri Krishna,
Since our Constitution framers have preferred the method of first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system, if we work out the results on percentage , we are always ruled by elected minority.

That is the reason opposition in Parliament should work diligently. Unfortunately most of the time in Parliament is wasted in frivolous things or demonstrations. Many bills passed by Parliament are done without discussions. Even important Bills like Finance Bill, and GST are not debated properly. Passing on the draft Bills to select Committee is just a ploy to delay or get time.
Our Parliament is the forum of the people of the Country. It should work transparently. People should watch how their elected members discharge their duty.
If we open up the records of our Constitution Assembly, we can see how the members discussed and argued on every Article before adopting into the Constitution. The entire debate is available in the net.
Regards,
Brahmanyan
Bangalore.
 

tbs

Well-known member
hi

this exit poll is like weatherman prediction.....but likely bjp comes in centre...its really hard time for others...

but the abosolute single majority may be very hard...bjp has to learn lesson for second term....opposotion

is very easy...but running govt is very hard reality...
 

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