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National Elections - 2019 prepoll prediction !

mkrishna100

Well-known member
Can you provide an English Version?
There are members who do not understand Hindi (self-proclaimed).
Note the talk is in Hindi but the person by the side gives English Translations for the same so you will be able to follow and in the end also summaries in English

This is the summary :
NDA will be the single largest winner of seats , followed by the MGB ( Maha GatBhandan Parties ) and Congress will be the third ,Modi will not be the PM and so it will be a Party Supported by Congress will form and Rahul Gandhi will play a key role in that ( Ir-respective of whether Rahul becomes the PM or not his influence will be there in next Govt formation ). NDA will reinvent itself as NDA2 and other Senior leaders who were angry with Modi ( liek Advani , Joshi , Yashwant Sinha etc etc ) will be brought in . This new Govt will not last long . The Stock Market will keep tanking for few months but long term it will grow strong so nothing to worry about the long term aspects of Indian Economy ir-respective of who forms the Govt .
 

Brahmanyan

Well-known member
If by chance, the predictions come true and UPA gets majority with 290+ seats, Sri H.D.Deve Gowda is waiting in the wings for a second chance to rule the Country as Prime minister and continue his efficient rule. Similarly all the ex-ministers from other 20 plus parties in Maha-ghadbandan can join his ministry. However Sri Deve Gowda said today, that we can also elect Sri Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister. Sri Rahul Gandhi in his lengthy interview in 'New Indian Express' says that 'Govt formation won't take too long' after the Election Results on 23rday.

There is no dearth of aspirants for PM's post in Maha-gadbandan/ Federal front/other single digit groupings opposed to NDA.

Let's just wait till 23rd May and see what the people of India have decided.

Brahmanyan,
Bangalore.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
This election will be decided by the silent voters who don't loudly proclaim their allegiance to either parties.

And how these silent voters affected by demo and GST and the economy downturn will vote will be a case study for years to come.

So it will be very interesting how this election swings. Let's not forget the evm tampering and its effects. LOL !!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
If by chance, the predictions come true and UPA gets majority with 290+ seats, Sri H.D.Deve Gowda is waiting in the wings for a second chance to rule the Country as Prime minister and continue his efficient rule. Similarly all the ex-ministers from other 20 plus parties in Maha-ghadbandan can join his ministry. However Sri Deve Gowda said today, that we can also elect Sri Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister. Sri Rahul Gandhi in his lengthy interview in 'New Indian Express' says that 'Govt formation won't take too long' after the Election Results on 23rday.

There is no dearth of aspirants for PM's post in Maha-gadbandan/ Federal front/other single digit groupings opposed to NDA.

Let's just wait till 23rd May and see what the people of India have decided.

Brahmanyan,
Bangalore.
To add, congress may not want to even stake for PM position given the economic mess. It will be very messy for them to make it work,

And if they fail to deliver on the economy, BJP will come back to power.

Best course of action is to let the mahagatbhandan to form govt, support from outside, and then after 2 yrs call for election.

Congress then can come to power with 200 or more seats and make a decent govt on their own.
 

krish44

Well-known member
Refer Post#141

The dip in stock market is ideal to pick up good stocks which are at all time lows . Maruti [4 wheelors],

Vedanta[metals], Bank[Nationalised Bank of india likely to be recapitalised, Private Kotak, Icici]. are my picks
 

krish44

Well-known member
What is happening in west bengal between BJP and TMC is to be viewed in the context of BJPs decision to look

east policy.They would like to make up the losses imminent in UP of about 40-45 seats by making inroads into

west bengal.At present they have 17% vote share which they would like to increase by 20% to win another 12

seats or so. The votes of the left parties have been grabbed by them. In addition they are trying to play the

game of divisive politics by whipping up the hindu sentiment to communalise and increase the hindu -muslim

divide. TMC is trying to fight this as their vote bank includes both hindus and muslims . TMC is trying to appeal

to bengali sentiment and talk of Vidyasagar and social reformers.

Who will succeed only time will tell.?
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Folks, just saw this on Twitter feed.

Don't ask how accurate the news is...with so much fake news going all over..

It says - exit poll leaked..(not mentioning the media agency as this could very easily be fake news )

UPA - 141
NDA - 177
OTH - 224
* Exit polls til phase 6, and projected tally for phase 7.

Ps: I thought all our assessments could very well be wrong...what ....with BJP loudly proclaiming they have already reached 300, even before phase 7 is completed.

Lets see how the exit polls go on 19th !!!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Folks, I can see some of you are more closer to the action. Pl feel free to correct my above post !

On a side note, dragging this poll for so long is a disaster - most parties are no longer talking about issues, Pulwama, Balakot, jobs, farm issues, Nyay schemes, etc...all are forgotten..

Only thing is the terrible mudslinging, name calling, personal abuses, etc..
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
What is happening in west bengal between BJP and TMC is to be viewed in the context of BJPs decision to look

east policy.They would like to make up the losses imminent in UP of about 40-45 seats by making inroads into

west bengal.At present they have 17% vote share which they would like to increase by 20% to win another 12

seats or so. The votes of the left parties have been grabbed by them. In addition they are trying to play the

game of divisive politics by whipping up the hindu sentiment to communalise and increase the hindu -muslim

divide. TMC is trying to fight this as their vote bank includes both hindus and muslims . TMC is trying to appeal

to bengali sentiment and talk of Vidyasagar and social reformers.

Who will succeed only time will tell.?
Krish Ji,
All I see in media is a lone tigress Mamata Didi single handedly fighting a relentless war against a massive govt machinery of CPRF, EC, negative propaganda against her, etc..

I feel, this will turn people's sympathy towards her..
 

mkrishna100

Well-known member
Prepoll Predictions ,Post Poll Predictions , Exit Poll Predictions , Astro Predictions , Naadi Jothidam predictions , Kili Joyisam Predictions , Muku Podi Sitthar's Predictions etc etc are being routinely circulated and also will be circulated more in the next few days but what matters is what comes out as published by Election Commission on Thu 23 May 2019 . Whatever may be the result - NDA forming the Govt , UPA forming the Govt , Other Parties forming the Govt or No party able to form due to Hung verdict and all are possible and we have to just accept it and move ahead . Whichever party forms the Govt have a very tough task at hand in managing the Indian Economy and providing jobs to people and also address the rural , agricultural distress . Let us wait and see what happens on May 23 whether it will be a clear verdict or confused verdict so more days of dragging in Govt formation . Apart from seats each party has got we have to see the Vote percentage each party got to understand how exactly the voting pattern happened . Also for us in TN we have to look out at the results of the assembly constituencies to see whether EPS-OPS is able to retain the Govt and in case they fails whether AIADMK will go with TTV or will it still be under EPS-OPS . So lot of Political Drama in store in the coming days So need to wait till May 23 or who knows even May 23 will not give a clear picture .
 
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mkrishna100

Well-known member
“சோனியா காந்தியின் மெகா திட்டம்; பயத்தில் பாஜக” - மூத்த பத்திரிகையாளர் மணி | Senior Journalist Mani

 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Surprisingly the BJP media managers who have otherwise been really good, have totally messed up with the PM interviews and the messaging. Social media is going hammer and tong on the PM gaffes !!

Hilarious, but this put the govt and the country in poor light !!!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
To me, the central issue is the farmers, traders and jobless youth. If they are sufficiently angry, then they will vote against the govt. But if BJP has done enough to assuage these voters, then the election will tilt towards them.

By many media accounts, there is no major nation wide Modi wave this time. So BJP will either lose nominal seats due to moderate anti incumbency or lose big due to massive anti incumbency. Not to forget the opposition alliance effect.

As I said earlier, I personally feel the voters may not be telling the truth to the pollsters. Remember the thread on Harishchandran effect ! So this complicates the election prediction completely, The Andh Bakths have created a narrative where anyone supporting congress or mahagatbhandan is deemed corrupt. So these voters will not want to talk openly their choices.

So even exit polls may not necessarily be correct this time if voters are not telling the truth !
 

mkrishna100

Well-known member
Poll-related seizures till date: A total of Rs.3,450 crore compared to Rs.1,200 crore in 2014, of which around Rs.840 crore is in cash, Rs.290 crore in liquor, Rs.1,270 crore in drugs and narcotics, Rs.980 crore in precious metals, Rs.58 crore in freebies.
 

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