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National Elections - 2019 prepoll prediction !

manojhari

New member
Point 1 and 2 looked likely due to biased media till apr 11. Post phase 1 ground reports, it is clear, we are going to point 3 for now,

I am personally sticking to a possibility of a total rout, let's evaluate after the next phases ground reports.
You mean total rout by BJP & allies? (it could be simply about 50%Min-65%Max
 

manojhari

New member
The Modi Government
Demonetization - Failure? - if Yes - then there is no difference? But there is an impact. People are forced to declare their money. You cannot keep storing. We have reduced the inflow of black money to a large extent including those across the border. People did suffer standing in Q, but that is much less sufferings compared to infiltrators funding.
GST - This is something that is there in developed countries and developing countries. It has to be there for smooth trade. One Nation One Tax that is GST. Both Houses have passed the bill. So we cannot complain.
Tax reforms - It could be more to come
Toilets - Probably done a bit by the Government. At least people started thinking about not going in the open in the villages
Swatchata - Many do not even split the plastics / kitchen wastes. One still throws the plastic off the train, bus, - it is a long way to go - it is a great movement
Planting trees / River development - much has happened
Projects such as Bullet train, Sardar Vallabhai's statue -many criticized - but these are all long term vision where the place around will develop - people can build business around it plus employment
Control on NGO funding across the border - Do we have any clue where the monies go out from NGO in a country like India? I don't want to mention it here
Ethics in voting - None - In some places Congress votes for CPI or CPI votes for Congress or BJP votes for CPI and so on and on to defeat some other party and swap. People are driven by Party in many places - Is it Democracy? Yes still it is. We have to live with it.
Population control - ?? no party has taken any action!! ? People increases, Resources are getting limited. Then we complain of Jobs? If people increases with limited development, in long term we are definite to have jobless scenarios - BJP or Non BJP govt.
Poverty - Quote
India is expected to achieve the ambitious goal of doubling farm income by 2022. The agriculture sector in India is expected to generate better momentum in the next few years due to increased investments in agricultural infrastructure such as irrigation facilities, warehousing and cold storage. Furthermore, the growing use of genetically modified crops will likely improve the yield for Indian farmers. India is expected to be self-sufficient in pulses in the coming few years due to concerted efforts of scientists to get early-maturing varieties of pulses and the increase in minimum support price. The government of India targets to increase the average income of a farmer household at current prices to Rs 219,724 (US$ 3,420.21) by 2022-23 from Rs 96,703 (US$ 1,505.27) in 2015-16. Unquote from ibef.org
Ghatbhandan - When the King becomes stronger and controls the nation, Petty thief, terrorist and traitors feel the heat and complain of Intolerance in the society (Chanakya-371-283BC)

A Person who works and makes others work without even telling them to work- because he is a hard working person for the nation. He does create the wave for the Party and the Nation - India is standing out. India is big, large and a great country. A country cannot change in 5 years. It needs time. No Party is "saint"; they are corrupt one way or the other- but this man can make a difference because he is not corrupt.

No comments on prediction of the poll.
 

manianks

Member
Post the 2018 elections, lets evaluate the potential nos the 2 alliance formations.

Given the drubbing that NDA got in 2018, most opine this election is wide open.

However my view is that this will be q complete rout for NDA for the following reasons.

1. Farmers crisis - the entire rural sector will vote against the govt.
2. SC/ST Groups - will vote entirely against this govt due to the sc/st act issues.
3. Youth - Massive job crisis is leading to massive discontent in this group. Hence urban seats are not safe.
4. Traders - GST has strangled the businesses particularly the smes and they will vote entirely against the govt.
5. Minorities - will vote entirely against the govt.

Let's look at the nos by state -

Approx esrimate -
1. MP, Raj, Chattisgarh - Cong - 30 out of 62
2. Tamil Nadu - DMK - 39 out of 39
3. Karnatka - JDS - 10 out of 28
4. Telangana - KCR 17 out of 17
5. Kerala - communist/cong 20 out of 20
6. WB - Didi 42 out of 42
7. UP - Maya/Aki - 35 out of 80
8. Maha - NCP/Cong - 25 out of 48
9. Bihar - Lalu alliance 10 out of 40
10. Guj - Cong 10 out of 28
11. Harayana/Himachal /Oth - 15
12. Andra - Naidu 10 seats out of 25.
12. Punjab - Cong - 10 out of 13

Total - 290 seats

In short, Stalin KCR and Mamta will sweep their states and prepoll surveys support that. I feel UP they will lose big time, as the discontent against yogi is growing.
This is a preposterous tunnel vision due lack of awareness. You are more a frog in a Tamil.Nadu well which is completely dried up
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
This is a preposterous tunnel vision due lack of awareness. You are more a frog in a Tamil.Nadu well which is completely dried up
Mr. Manian,
Let's keep the discussions civil. Let's avoid name call or abusing others posts. You are welcome to post with counter arguments to explain your thoughts.

Then we can have a good back and forth discussin. No point in you calling me frog, and I having to respond Andh bakth, etc...
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
This govt has done a lot of mistakes on economy, institutions, etc...but it has rarely ever done any mistakes on communication. They have been impeccable and spot on.

But the remarks on Rajiv Gandhi has raised a huge storm on social media, right in the middle of the elections. The storm is turning into a tidal wave with all opposition parties repeatedly raising this.

It will be interesting how these controversies are impacting the "swing voters", specially the youth with their huge presence on social media.
 

krish44

Well-known member
present prediction after 5th phase 185_ 190 for BJP out of 425 seats. balance 114 seats are remaining in phase

6 and 7. These seats are mostly in UP bihar rajasthan and MP.and most were bjp seats in 2014. How many can

it retain with mahagatbandhan and resurgent congress ?
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
How accurate the above report is, anybody's guess !!

But as I have said always, the enormous mess of demo and GST had to show up in the elections. So this finally shows the impact.

Very interesting and if this scenario holds, we are truly talking of a gatbhandan or third front led govt !!!
 

krish44

Well-known member
These reports are wishful thinking based on whether you are NDA or UPA supporter.

Even a small 2 or 3% swing can make a difference in marginal constituencies . And there are so many of them

One could be totally off .

This is one of the nightmarish elections for psephologists.

I would not like to guess the outcome.
 

mkrishna100

Well-known member
Krishji I am just sharing the various poll outcomes that I keep getting in various social media . I have already made it clear that predicting the outcome of this election is the most toughest as multiple players are at play and so no one knows how the votes will get divided and we must be prepared for all forms of outcomes in the following order
1) NDA winning Majority on its own ( less likely )
2) NDA is the winner with the largest seats but not getting majority ( quite likely )
3) UPA , NDA , All other parties put together ( Khichdi group ) get equal no of seats ( possible ) and this will decide whether the Khichdi group will go with NDA or UPA .

As on date very difficult to predict but if I have to put a likely outcome I will say outcome No:2 is fairly possible .
However more than seats we must be aware of the vote percentage to understand how people really voted . In 2016 assembly elections in TN the vote percentage between AIADMK and DMK was very less( I think less than 1 % ) but that less was enough to give a swing to AIADMK to form the Govt and they still continue to Govern . Same happened in the recent MP State elections which helped Congress grab the power .I sense a similar situation at the National level
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Clearly both BJP and opposition are working with clear strategy. Now whether it will work or not, we wil know shortly.

And both groups right and left/liberal wings see the narrative that supports them.

In UP, congress feels it can cut the vote of BJP and delivering a big win for mahagatbandhan (MGB). And atleast by some reports, this seems to be working..

 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Few points -

1. Clearly there are a significant group of supporters for BJP, Modi. They are committed and most vocal in their support.

2. Farmers are very upset and they have protested and protested for 2 yrs now. Farmers organisations have been very vocal against the govt. many farmers are contesting in Varanasi. They will definitely vote against the govt,

3. Trader bodies are totally upset and they have been vocal in their grievances. Most have lost lievelyhood and the rest have suffered significant decline on revenues. Many will vote against the govt.

4. Opposition has done their work atleast on paper fairly well, they are organised at national level and they have also worked on state level alliances and in some places fight in 3 or. 4 way contests that may potentially split votes from BJP like in UP. Now let's see if this works or fails.

5. Jobless, Minorities, secularists, liberals, etc..will all predominantly vote against this govt.

6. Lastly, if BJP does NoT get 272 on their own, even shiva Sena and JDU Nitish will not support them. So not easy to do the thod phod politicos.

Hence by al accounts, this is a very tough fight for BJP, and in all likelihood, it looks like a hung assembly and "maybe" BJP as single largest party.

Ps. I am specifically mentioning "maybe" for BJP coming as single largest party, as the anti incumbency, the anger/dissatisfaction among farmers, traders, and jobless is very very high.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
In most media disucssiins, people keep saying, we will vote for Modi. So this gives a perception that the govt will win.

However these local farmer and trader and minorities leaders will hold sway on their "members" and they will vote enmasse against the govt,

Don't forget the govt employees who are disgruntled with the political leadership.

So the media hype should be taken with a good pinch of salt !!

LOL !!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Even in Delhi, I personally don't think it is a walkover for BJP to win all the 7 seats. However Krishji is the best to comment on this'll.
 

mkrishna100

Well-known member
Sources: BJP's exit poll U.P.; 61-75 Bihar; 17 Jhar; 6 Bengal; 13-23 MAHA; 22 M.P.; 24 CG; 6 Raj; 24 Guj; 24 Har; 9 PUN; 3 UK; 5 J&k; 2 HP; 4 Del; 7 NE; 17 Karnatak; 20 Orissa; 8-13 AP; 2 TN; 2 Kerala; 1 Goa; 2 Total= 279-308
 

mkrishna100

Well-known member
This astrologer has something interesting to say and he is credited with predicting in 2004 that Manmohan Singh will be the PM . It seems lot of fluctuation will be there and lot of permutations and combinations will be there and we may see a Karnataka like situation also ( like how Kuamara Swamy became CM ) Let us see how far his predictions will be true after May 23 .

Pt. Raj Kumar Sharma with RKB, says "Rahul Gandhi will play a huge role in govt. formation"


 

prasad1

Well-known member
This astrologer has something interesting to say and he is credited with predicting in 2004 that Manmohan Singh will be the PM . It seems lot of fluctuation will be there and lot of permutations and combinations will be there and we may see a Karnataka like situation also ( like how Kuamara Swamy became CM ) Let us see how far his predictions will be true after May 23 .

Pt. Raj Kumar Sharma with RKB, says "Rahul Gandhi will play a huge role in govt. formation"

Can you provide an English Version?
There are members who do not understand Hindi (self-proclaimed).
 

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