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National Elections - 2019 prepoll prediction !

Jaykay767

Well-known member
I thought I had to take a vacation from this forum after the results to escape the wrath of the right wing supporters !!

We'll, doesn't look like now!! LOL. !
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Many interesting stats from this report -


BJP Could Perform Worse Than What Surveys Predict

On 7 March, the Modi government’s approval rating was at 62.06 percent. Despite a minor decrease it remained in the 50s till 22 March. But on 12 April, a day after the first phase of polling, the Modi government’s approval rating had fallen to 43.25 percent, a fall of almost 19 percent in about five weeks.

According to CVoter, the Modi government’s, approval rating is now at “pre-Pulwama” levels.

So based on Dr Sanjay Kumar’s analysis of the first phase turnout and the C-Voter survey’s findings, a few observations can made:
  • The Balakot strike had led to a surge in Modi’s popularity for about a month. Naturally as the field work for most pre-poll surveys was done in March, this surge was reflected in the last set of surveys before the first phase of polling.
  • But as the CVoter tracker shows, the Balakot surge has now dissipated and as a result, the Modi factor isn’t working as well as expected.
  • Even in states where Modi is by far the most preferred PM choice, such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra, his ability to trump factors like alliance arithmetic, caste, candidate selection and local factors appear to have greatly weakened.
 

v.s.rajamani

New member
Prepoll predictions, generally are biased, excepting a few conducted by NDTV team, which follows statistical analysis in a scientific way. I am neither happy or unhappy about the prepoll analysis. Let us wait upto 23rdMay. The cat will be out of the bag. Why there is hurry.
 

mkrishna100

Well-known member
On 23 May we must not be surprised with what ever outcomes it comes -
1) Modi Winning a Majority
2) Modi winning the single largest combination but falling short of majority
3) Hung verdict with no one getting closer to Majority
4) Congress winning ( not likely in my opinion but will do much better than last time )
 

Janaki Jambunathan

Well-known member
Prepoll predictions, generally are biased, excepting a few conducted by NDTV team, which follows statistical analysis in a scientific way. I am neither happy or unhappy about the prepoll analysis. Let us wait upto 23rdMay. The cat will be out of the bag. Why there is hurry.
I recollect a similar situation in கல்கியின் பொன்னியின் செல்வன்

பிறகு சிறிது மெல்லிய குரலில், "ஜோசியரே! முக்கியமாக ஒன்று கேட்பதற்காகவே உங்களிடம் வந்தேன்.நாடு நகரங்களிலே சில காலமாக ஜனங்கள்ஏதேதோ பேசிக் கொள்கிறார்களாமே? வானத்தில் சில நாளாக வால் நட்சத்திரம் தோன்றுகிறதே? இதற்கெல்லாம் உண்மையில் ஏதேனும் பொருள் உண்டா? இராஜ்யத்துக்கு ஏதாவது ஆபத்து உண்டா? மாறுதல் குழப்பம் ஏதேனும் ஏற்படுமா?" என்று இளையபிராட்டி கேட்டாள்.

"அதை மட்டும் என்னைக் கேட்காதீர்கள், தாயே! தேசங்கள், இராஜ்யங்கள், இராஜாங்க நிகழ்ச்சிகள் இவற்றுக்கெல்லாம் ஜாதகமும் கிடையாது; ஜோசியமும் சொல்ல முடியாது. நான் பயின்ற வித்தையில் அதெல்லாம் வரவில்லை. ஞானிகளும், ரிஷிகளும், மகான்களும், யோகிகளும் ஒருவேளை ஞான திருஷ்டியில் பார்த்துச் சொல்லலாம். இந்த ஏழைக்கு அந்தச் சக்தி கிடையாது. இராஜரீக காரியங்களில் நாள், நட்சத்திரம், ஜாதகம், ஜோசியம் எல்லாம் சக்தியற்றுப் போய்விடுகின்றன..."

Very True
 

v.s.rajamani

New member
In Kerala in an Amman Temple they had a prashnam whether Modi will win or not. The outcome of the prashnam was that Modi will with a Majority getting 340 seats and so many other predictions. Should I believe the prepoll survey predictions by one of the members mentioned above or the prashnam before the Amman and God's answers. Yes let us hope for the best ( according to one's wish), take it easy without getting excited and wait till 23.05.2019
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
On 23 May we must not be surprised with what ever outcomes it comes -
1) Modi Winning a Majority
2) Modi winning the single largest combination but falling short of majority
3) Hung verdict with no one getting closer to Majority
4) Congress winning ( not likely in my opinion but will do much better than last time )
Point 1 and 2 looked likely due to biased media till apr 11. Post phase 1 ground reports, it is clear, we are going to point 3 for now,

I am personally sticking to a possibility of a total rout, let's evaluate after the next phases ground reports.
 

mkrishna100

Well-known member
If only 2 parties contest it is quite easy to predict the winner and looser but when many parties contest and form alliance with the 2 dominant parties then it becomes a challenge as to how the votes will be polled . For eg many PMK Cadres were not happy with PMK aligning with AIADMK ( in spite of getting more seats from them ) and yesterday I enquired some Vanniyar people and they told they voted for NTK ( Naam Tamilar Katchi ) . Now what does it mean ? Loss for AIADMK Front or Loss for DMK Front ? Similarly many AIADMK people were not happy aligning with BJP and they will vote either for Kamal's MNM or NTK . Now who is loosing in the process and who is gaining . And then we forgot the Dinakaran factor . So all these complex situation exist and who will split the votes and who will gain due to that is not predictable at this stage . A similar situation exist in most of the states . That is why making predictions in this parliament election is quite challenging .
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
If only 2 parties contest it is quite easy to predict the winner and looser but when many parties contest and form alliance with the 2 dominant parties then it becomes a challenge as to how the votes will be polled . For eg many PMK Cadres were not happy with PMK aligning with AIADMK ( in spite of getting more seats from them ) and yesterday I enquired some Vanniyar people and they told they voted for NTK ( Naam Tamilar Katchi ) . Now what does it mean ? Loss for AIADMK Front or Loss for DMK Front ? Similarly many AIADMK people were not happy aligning with BJP and they will vote either for Kamal's MNM or NTK . Now who is loosing in the process and who is gaining . And then we forgot the Dinakaran factor . So all these complex situation exist and who will split the votes and who will gain due to that is not predictable at this stage . A similar situation exist in most of the states . That is why making predictions in this parliament election is quite challenging .
Agree with your analysis !! This election has too many parties contesting and how the votes splits between BJP, Congress's and multiple regional parties is very challenging.

Not to forget the completely biased media feeding its own bogus narrative has made this election a total outlier !!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
As I said earlier in my posts, the 3 core supporters of this govt - farmers, traders, youth are the most disgruntled directly due to demo and GST.

Will they vote against, or just not vote at all, and if they vote against, will they go to regional parties due to their animosity to congress ? So many possibilities.

It will be interesting to see some more ground reports on the phase 2 polls.

Right wing supporters, Pl take it easy. It is "very interesting" for many of us to predict the election. So we will continue to keep speculating till the actual results come out !!! So no need to get agitated and start abusing us personally !!!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Social media, Twitter are outraged by the most atrocious comments on the martyr - Hemant Karkare !!

Entire Mumbai and Maharashtra is up in arms !! If this govt loses, then you can put this in the "list of reasons".

All said, truly truly disgraceful, abhorrent and most cruel comments, on the dead of the brave martyr !!
 

Janaki Jambunathan

Well-known member
Social media, Twitter are outraged by the most atrocious comments on the martyr - Hemant Karkare !!

Entire Mumbai and Maharashtra is up in arms !! If this govt loses, then you can put this in the "list of reasons".

All said, truly truly disgraceful, abhorrent and most cruel comments, on the dead of the brave martyr !!
If she wins in Bhopal what wiil be the reason!? Her suffering (with NIA) and consequent emotional response are personal but her fight against Digvijay's Saffron Terror is for everyone!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
If she wins in Bhopal what wiil be the reason!? Her suffering (with NIA) and consequent emotional response are personal but her fight against Digvijay's Saffron Terror is for everyone!
How much ever she may have been wronged, we cannot encourage such comments on the dead of a brave martyr !! Remember, he is not alive to defend himself from these allegations.

BJP should remove her and give the ticket to some other deserving candidates !

You are only looking at this from the view of woman's struggle !!
 

Janaki Jambunathan

Well-known member
How much ever she may have been wronged, we cannot encourage such comments on the dead of a brave martyr !! Remember, he is not alive to defend himself from these allegations.

BJP should remove her and give the ticket to some other deserving candidates !

You are only looking at this from the view of woman's struggle !!
If Phoolan can become an Honorable member of Parliament as Phoolan Devi why not Sadhvi . JJ has vowed to fight in every space - it is political now!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
One of the interesting things in this election is - how do the late news cycle plays out like the Sadhvi outbursts vis a vis the swing voters !!

The news on social media is incessant with continuous positive and negative news for ruling party and oppositions !!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Contrary to the "manufactured" mass hysteria that this govt will come back to power, I see this election slipping away for them.

The fact that the PM had to do a so called informal non political chat with a Bollywood star "right in the middle of the election" smells more of desperation.

And phase I and II ground reprorts from some media outlets already say that the gobt is expected to do badly in many areas including UP. And a possible similar report on phase III may have alarmed the right wing leading to this interview !!!

Also, this over the board propaganda may very we'll backfire and hand the election to Pappu !!! LOL !!

From a mahagatbhandan PM, it may very well be a Pappu PM if congress sweeps most of the direct contests w BJP !!!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member

Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) appears to be suffering heavy losses compared with its 2014 tally, in the second phase of polling for 95 out of 97 Lok Sabha seats held on Thursday (April 18). Polling for two seats (Vellore and Tripura East) has been postponed due to violence and cash seizures


Adding to the losses projected for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the first two phases of polling, the downward slide of the ruling front appears to be continuing in phase 3 polling held on April 23. Across 14 states, 117 seats went to polls in this phase which was marred by sporadic violence in West Bengal and UP, and low turnout in strife-torn J&K’s Anantnag seat (polling in part), but was otherwise peaceful. Tripura East too went to polls in this phase after postponement from the second phase.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
No wonder, there is so much desperation and interview after interview !!

As I said earlier, Pulwama lulled this govt into a false sense of victory and made them declare the elections immediately.

The devastation due to demo and GST are so vast, it has to reflect on the polls even if BJP campaign managers have done a great job.

Interesting turn of events, let's see how this goes !!

LOL !!!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
On 23 May we must not be surprised with what ever outcomes it comes -
1) Modi Winning a Majority
2) Modi winning the single largest combination but falling short of majority
3) Hung verdict with no one getting closer to Majority
4) Congress winning ( not likely in my opinion but will do much better than last time )
Given these reports, I think point 3 is more likely now.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
I think the "over propaganda" with this carpet bombing of advs, campaign rallies,what app msgs., are backfiring !!

So the more they campaign, the voters are reminded of their failures and end up voting against !!

LOL !!
 

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