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National Elections - 2019 prepoll prediction !

v.s.rajamani

New member
In what way the opinion poll No: 2 is wrong. Why people should have biased approach. I feel all opinion polls should be banned.
 

mkrishna100

Well-known member
Predicting the Poll outcome especially for Parliament Elections in India is a big challenge for the following reasons :
1) There is division in the ways Rural Urban voters think
2) There is division in the ways each religious and caste groups think
3) Even if it is National elections , the state politics and the way state govt functions do matter in either increasing the chances of victory or defeat
4) Role of Alliance partners -whether they add value or prove to be a burden
5) role of other parties which do not belong to either the NDA ,UPA Camp and whether they split votes and if so who is benefited in the process
6) the role of new first time voters - no one knows how they will vote
7) the role of people who are vocal on social media etc but never turn out to vote or end up voting NOTA or some independents because of lack of clarity to whom to vote . If you look at the recent state election results in MP , it was a very close contest and many candidates lost by 50 or 100 votes while NOTA at those places got 1000 votes or so
8) last but not least the role of money power , state power , media power

With so many challenging variables it is very difficult to get the pre poll predictions right and Hats off to those who are getting it right and that is why I am posting the various Poll PREDICTIONS here to see who is getting it nearly right .
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
In what way the opinion poll No: 2 is wrong. Why people should have biased approach. I feel all opinion polls should be banned.
Mr. Rajamani Ji,
In this election, we have 3 sections of people badly impacted - farmers, Traders, and jobless youth - these are facts.

And in all opinions polls, unemployment is #1 issue, in one poll it is 46%, In another 62%, in another 76%, etc..

In this context, do you really think this govt will get over 300 to 325 seats ??

JK
 

mkrishna100

Well-known member
Just now saw an astrologer spoke ( while predicting the future for this TAMIL NEW YEAR ) said that neither Modi nor Rahul will get a Majority and stars are not good for both and it seems to be a coalition Govt only
This is the astrologer and for more follow this youtube video link :
 

KRN

Active member
In summary
UPA alliance - 290
NDA alliance - 222
The total of 290 for UPA seems to have been arrived at by including the teams of KCR, Communists. Didi, Maya, Aki and so on. None of these are presently part of UPA. They might join UPA post polls, but if NDA has a good lead over UPA post polls (without getting majority) many of these could join NDA as well. There are allegations that Maya has been selling tickets, and while the veracity of the allegations is suspect, the loyalty of her MPs is always suspect, given past experience. The smaller their numbers, the easier it becomes for them to split up even against her wishes. Same goes for Ali's team or for that matter, with any regional party, without perhaps the Comrades whom I don't see supporting the NDA in any situation. So the figure of 290 certainly needs to be revisited.
 

KRN

Active member
If the NDA doesn't get a full majority and the Cong doesn't get much beyond the 100 mark then we might even see a coalition with Rahul and Maya taking turns in ruling the country (she isn't likely to settle for less). That will be certainly interesting times for the country.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
The total of 290 for UPA seems to have been arrived at by including the teams of KCR, Communists. Didi, Maya, Aki and so on. None of these are presently part of UPA. They might join UPA post polls, but if NDA has a good lead over UPA post polls (without getting majority) many of these could join NDA as well. There are allegations that Maya has been selling tickets, and while the veracity of the allegations is suspect, the loyalty of her MPs is always suspect, given past experience. The smaller their numbers, the easier it becomes for them to split up even against her wishes. Same goes for Ali's team or for that matter, with any regional party, without perhaps the Comrades whom I don't see supporting the NDA in any situation. So the figure of 290 certainly needs to be revisited.
Agree, the nos represent all opposition including fence sitters like kcr, and Jagan. i doubt this govt will indulge in horse trading,as it will damage the sky high personal credibility of Modi. And you saw that in Karnataka, it damaged the party credibility.

Best bet is that kcr and Jagan give issue based support for this govt specifically the special status of Andhra.

Also this no, need to be adjusted for any additional fall in seats due to Nyay, etc..
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
This is why I said, Modi personally may sit in opposition if he is short by 40 seats or more, instead of cobbling together a messy coalition.

And then allow the mahagatbhandan to collapse in a year or two and then come back with a massive mandate !!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
If the NDA doesn't get a full majority and the Cong doesn't get much beyond the 100 mark then we might even see a coalition with Rahul and Maya taking turns in ruling the country (she isn't likely to settle for less). That will be certainly interesting times for the country.
It may be mostly Mamata, Stalin, or KCR or even Deve Gowda, as they feel, the regional parties should run the central govt this time. Rahul can come only if congress gets 180 seats or more.

Ps. I am assuming, Naidu will lose the election as per current opinion polls. And that Mayawati will not get support from other regional players.
 

KRN

Active member
It may be mostly Mamata, Stalin, or KCR or even Deve Gowda, as they feel, the regional parties should run the central govt this time. Rahul can come only if congress gets 180 seats or more.

Ps. I am assuming, Naidu will lose the election as per current opinion polls. And that Mayawati will not get support from other regional players.
Mamata, KCR etc are in control of their respective states and, without a trusted OPS-like, would not want it to be lessened. Aki, Stalin also have their sights on the states only. Maya has made it clear that she wants to play a role in Delhi. If she emerges with a substantial no: of seats, in a fluid situation, the other parties could get forced to support her, in lieu of their SC vote banks.
 

KRN

Active member
Agree, the nos represent all opposition including fence sitters like kcr, and Jagan. i doubt this govt will indulge in horse trading,as it will damage the sky high personal credibility of Modi. And you saw that in Karnataka, it damaged the party credibility.

Best bet is that kcr and Jagan give issue based support for this govt specifically the special status of Andhra.

Also this no, need to be adjusted for any additional fall in seats due to Nyay, etc..
[/QUOTE]

Agree, the nos represent all opposition including fence sitters like kcr, and Jagan. i doubt this govt will indulge in horse trading,as it will damage the sky high personal credibility of Modi. And you saw that in Karnataka, it damaged the party credibility.
You perhaps forget that many of these smaller parties have already seen several splits in the past. Many Ayarams Gayarams there. For example, a post poll split in the RJD, with some MPs joining the JD-U, and not the BJP, can be managed without damaging Modi's credibility much.

Best bet is that kcr and Jagan give issue based support for this govt specifically the special status of Andhra.

Also this no, need to be adjusted for any additional fall in seats due to Nyay, etc..
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
KRN, Sure, it is possible. But it is 2019 and not 1990s !!

BJP lost a lot of credibility when the local leaders in Karnataka tried to engineer defections of JDS and congress MLAs. Social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter went hammer and tong against BJP on this issue.

So it will be very tough to do all this horse trading stuff today !!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
This govt is standing only on the personal credibility of Modi Ji like Atal Ji. Their local state leaders, etc..have very low standing among people.
 

tbs

Well-known member
hi

bjp can win in some places including tamil nadu......but some issues can rectified....i feel still bjp

is far better than congress .....
 

KRN

Active member
hi

bjp can win in some places including tamil nadu......but some issues can rectified....i feel still bjp

is far better than congress .....
Both parties are big business houses to little to choose between them...... I follow the election updates for entertaining myself, nothing else.

However one difference is there - CONGRESS and similar parties like that of Didi are active supporters of illegal immigration from Bangladesh, causing demographic changes in vast stretches of northern India..... And whose impact can be seen in the South too....

While the BJP is supporting only the emigration of refugees fleeing from religious persecution in our neighbouring countries....
 

tbs

Well-known member
Both parties are big business houses to little to choose between them...... I follow the election updates for entertaining myself, nothing else.

However one difference is there - CONGRESS and similar parties like that of Didi are active supporters of illegal immigration from Bangladesh, causing demographic changes in vast stretches of northern India..... And whose impact can be seen in the South too....

While the BJP is supporting only the emigration of refugees fleeing from religious persecution in our neighbouring countries....
hi

i agreed sir....
 
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prasad1

Well-known member
The Supreme Court on Tuesday expressed satisfaction over Election Commission's action against Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath, Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati and others for allegedly making hate speeches during poll campaign.

A bench headed by Chief Justice Ranjan Gogoi also refused to consider the plea of Mayawati challenging the EC's 48-hr ban on the leader and asked her counsel to file a separate appeal against the poll panel's order.

Taking note of the EC action, the court said it seems the EC has "woken up" and barred various politicians from poll campaigning for varying hours.

The bench also comprising Justice Sanjiv Khanna made it clear that no further order was required for now.

Following the SC rap for EC, the poll panel on Monday afternoon took action against Adityanath, Mayawati, Azam Khan and Union Minister Maneka Gandhi.

Read more at: http://www.sify.com/news/ec-has-woken-up-sc-after-ban-on-yogi-mayawati-news-national-teqqeadcbhecd.html
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member

"Basis ground reports after phase 1 polls. It says, BJP in trouble in 6 out of 8 seats in UP !! If this continues in the all phases, they will end up with only 25 seats in UP !!"

Wow, and If this happens across the other states like Raj, Chatt, MP, Maha, then my prediction of a total rout may well come true !!!!
 

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