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National Elections - 2019 prepoll prediction !

Jaykay767

Well-known member
In this election, we have multiple black swan events, hence predicting the results are specially difficult.

1. Twin strikes of Demo and GST - in the past, the economy was chugging along, and slowly people were making money and moving from poor to lower income group to middle income to upper income...and so on. And it didn't matter which party or coalition came to power, their livelyhood changed slowly and steadily after 1991 liberalisation.

But with these 2 policies, suddenly a lot of people who were well off became poor in a matter of 12 to 18 months.

Farmers, traders and jobless youth (construction workers, textile workers, etc..) are all deeply impacted and they can vote significantly against the govt.

And don't forget the harischandran effect aka voters lying to pollsters :)-

2. Triple strikes on Minorities - Hate rhetoric by central and state leaders, gau rakshak lynchings, terrible videos of Akbar Khan lynching went viral, Karin sena riots, etc..

Minorities by all aspects are expected to vote against the govt.

3. Multiple strikes - Surgical strikes, Pulwama and Blakot Strikes - Major positive impact due to this and the strong policy.

People who are well off including youth cushioned by their parents wealth, and those not impacted by economic issues, will definitely be swayed by these actions. Nationalistic surge among youth.

In view of the above, this election is different than the earlier ones and it will be fascinating to see how this goes and how people vote in various constituencies !!

My view given my economics background has been that the economic issues are so vast and deep, it will be a complete rout of this govt. so I am sticking to my 50 seat prediction.

On a lighter side, if I am wrong, I may have to go on a vacation from this forum..as many right wingers are super upset with my posts !! LOL
 

prasad1

Well-known member
BJP MP Subramanian Swamy on Saturday claimed neither Prime Minister Narendra Modi nor Finance Minister Arun Jaitley knew economics, as they dub India as the fifth largest economy despite it being the third largest one.

In an apparent backhanded praise, Swamy said he does not understand why the prime minister says India is the world's fifth largest economy when, as per scientifically acceptable procedures for GDP calculations, the Indian economy is the third largest after the USA and China.

 

krish44

Well-known member
Jaykay ji

I like your analytical skills and clarity in thought and excellent hard hitting posts.

People do not vote thinking logically and most times it is based on emotions based on incidents a few days

before polling.

At present Modi graph is spiralling upwards . But if can change course based on some event or other before

polling day.

BJP has milked dry the Pulwama incident and Balakot strike for electoral gains

Not having much of a voters base in south, BJP is banking on the Hindi states.

In UP ,Priyanka's entry is likely to split the brahmin and higher caste vote bank of BJP.If there are triangular

fights with gathbandan,congress and BJP no one can predict the the outcome, Whom congress will hurt more

Gathbandan or BJP.Congress will be the spoilers and at best get 5 or 6 seats .

Bihar , BJP has to ride on nitish kumars" performance who is popular with women on account of

prohibition policy .Here again RJD will get yadav,muslim some dalit caste votes.There are dalits who prefer

LJP or BSP.Congress is banking on RJD to collect a few seats

So ultimately it is MP and Rajasthan .Congress is banking on its past performance in assembly elections to

collect some seats.Here In MP, Modi is not popular and only Shivraj chouhan can get them a few seats.

In Rajasthan, People detest Vasundhara Raje and Modis charisma may not see them through.

In gujerat, BJP will score .In maharashtra it will be evenly split between congress-NCP and BJP Shiv sena.

With this complex scenario,, where winning margins are going to be thin,it is anyones"guess who will be

the largest party in the new loksabha.

The biggest hurdle for congress is that in AP and Telengana, both KCR and Jaganmohan reddy are not with

congress. TDP is suffering due to anti incumbency and if congress goes with them they will only lose.

BJP has a dedicated cadre RSS . With Balakot and Ram temple to aid them , they hope to get the hindu

votes.
 

vgane

Well-known member
At this stage can predict that NDA will get majority...BJP getting majority may happen if they release the video on the Pakistan casualties post the Balakot air attack...I think this will be the right time to release the video just before elections and it would be a clean sweep in North & Western India
 

vgane

Well-known member
Another foot in the mouth from Congress not from maverick Mani Aiyar but from Sam Pitroda who has questioned the veracity of deaths in air strikes!!
 

mkrishna100

Well-known member
This is the foot in the mouth from Subramaniam Swamy . He ialong with foul mouth Raja s enough to make BJP get close to NOTA as far as TN is concerned
Can't be Chowkidar because I am a Brahmin: Subramanian Swamy
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Krishji,

Thanks, agree, people will vote largely on emotions and Pulwama and balakot has changed the narrative.

Congress has not got that the alliance airthmetic in place and that could make this unpredictable depending on whose vote base they cut into,

JK.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
In the end, this election will come down to the following -

1. How many % of BJP voters in 2014 (farmers, traders, youth) people impacted by demo and GST in each constituency vote against the govt or will they give another chance ?

2. Can BJP offset this anti incumbency voters with the new voters from the Pulwama and Balakot strikes in these constituencies ?
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Some more points -

1. Congress and mahagatbhandan gets into a last minute surprise alliance in UP, Delhi, and WB - 10% probability.

BJP is clearly being paranoid on opposition alliance and putting ED and IT raids on maya, Akhilesh and Robert vadra to stop this. So a last minute surprise may be premeditated by opposition so as not to give BJP time to react.

2. Post election, many BJP MPs "may" split and defect to the mahagatbhandan. Lot of them are not happy with the huge centralisation of the power.

3. BJP should have waited for the additional 6 months for the elections. Constitution allows a 6 mths time after the 5 yr completion. Given the farm crisis, the 6 mths could have really helped to revive the sector.

So the election drama could become more and more interesting as we go to polls.
 

chandar

Member
Post the 2018 elections, lets evaluate the potential nos the 2 alliance formations.

Given the drubbing that NDA got in 2018, most opine this election is wide open.

However my view is that this will be q complete rout for NDA for the following reasons.

1. Farmers crisis - the entire rural sector will vote against the govt.
2. SC/ST Groups - will vote entirely against this govt due to the sc/st act issues.
3. Youth - Massive job crisis is leading to massive discontent in this group. Hence urban seats are not safe.
4. Traders - GST has strangled the businesses particularly the smes and they will vote entirely against the govt.
5. Minorities - will vote entirely against the govt.

Let's look at the nos by state -

Approx esrimate -
1. MP, Raj, Chattisgarh - Cong - 30 out of 62
2. Tamil Nadu - DMK - 39 out of 39
3. Karnatka - JDS - 10 out of 28
4. Telangana - KCR 17 out of 17
5. Kerala - communist/cong 20 out of 20
6. WB - Didi 42 out of 42
7. UP - Maya/Aki - 35 out of 80
8. Maha - NCP/Cong - 25 out of 48
9. Bihar - Lalu alliance 10 out of 40
10. Guj - Cong 10 out of 28
11. Harayana/Himachal /Oth - 15
12. Andra - Naidu 10 seats out of 25.
12. Punjab - Cong - 10 out of 13

Total - 290 seats

In short, Stalin KCR and Mamta will sweep their states and prepoll surveys support that. I feel UP they will lose big time, as the discontent against yogi is growing.
Why waste your time in posting sponsored posting in this forum.
TB are in minority & can't elect one member of parliament with our community support nor it can influence the voters.
In Tamil Nadu TB's share is less then 1% of the total voters in TN & under this - our community should be United in order to have a say but unfortunately everyone will spk & sometimes goes against our community's interest. Tamil Brahmins are so fragmented that every other community is taking advantage of this & ridicule us in the public & our community will take it as joke.
Don't know when our community will have a strong unity. God Bless Tamil Brahmins.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Why waste your time in posting sponsored posting in this forum.
TB are in minority & can't elect one member of parliament with our community support nor it can influence the voters.
In Tamil Nadu TB's share is less then 1% of the total voters in TN & under this - our community should be United in order to have a say but unfortunately everyone will spk & sometimes goes against our community's interest. Tamil Brahmins are so fragmented that every other community is taking advantage of this & ridicule us in the public & our community will take it as joke.
Don't know when our community will have a strong unity. God Bless Tamil Brahmins.
Chandarji,
Just because someone is disagreeing with the this govt and presents an opposing view does not mean it is sponsored.

Predicting this election is a national pastime for us Indians. TBs having multiple differing views does not mean ther is no unity among us. And, when did, not supporting this govt has come to mean disunity among TBs.

You are underestimating the influence this forum holds. Social media is a such a powerful medium, one lone dissenting voice can influence a large group of people and also the political parties.

Lastly, Let's keep the discussion in a positive spirit, and agree to disagree and move on.

JK.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member

Minimum income garaunteed from congress could become another game changer. This election is becoming more and more interesting !!

Let's see if people get swayed by this !!
 

prasad1

Well-known member
There is huge difference between the general election 2014 and general election 2019. In the last Lok Sabha election, Narendra Modi, the then serving chief minister of Gujarat for a record third term, rode on a Modi wave and won the day for the NDA alliance by getting two third majority in Lok Sabha.

As the nation goes to poll yet again, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking another mandate from people, we take a look as to why the task is much more difficult for him than the last time. Why the magic woven around Modi seems to have evaporated into thin air and why the charisma seems to have disappeared?

There is no denying the fact that what happened in the last election was nothing short of magic. He rode on the development plank, made all the more effective by the beautifully created Gujarat model, by a media that danced to his tunes.

Supported by a mean election machine created by Amit Shah by pouring millions and millions in social media and very effective media planning, Modi was the man to look for succour and Gujarat model was an ultimate model for development. But five years down the line, the road seems to have become unusually difficult and there seems to be clear desperation on the faces of BJP leaders who seem to have realized that riding back to power is unusually difficult, if not impossible.

Despite the aerial strikes in Pakistan in the aftermath of Pullwama terrorist attack and later the downing of a satellite by a missile, Narenra Modi and Amit Shah are finding to their bewilderment that their narrative is losing relevance and the national security is not becoming the talking point as they would have liked.

Read more at: http://www.sify.com/news/electoral-arithmetic-doesnt-support-bjp-narrative-news-columns-td4lhihajgiee.html
 

prasad1

Well-known member
While the BJP is buoyed by the surgical strikes deep inside Pakistan and the recent shooting down of a satellite in outer space by a DRDO missile, the BJP’s chances don’t really look very bright at the moment. The saffron party that had surged on the anti-corruption plank and the personal image of Prime Minister Modi seems to have been left battered and bruised over Rafale and other allegations of corruption.

The party hasn’t been able to clear doubts among the voters’ minds thanks to incessant allegations by the Congress president, Rahul Gandhi. Expose by The Hindu newspaper too hasn’t helped the cause either, creating doubts about the credibility of the party and the apparent clean image of Narendra Modi. The electoral arithmetic seems to be stacked against the saffron party also. While the BJP has invested heavily in southern states including Tamil Nadu and Kerala, besides of course in Karnataka, the fact that it has gone with AIADMK that is facing dissidence and anti-incumbency is not going to help the party either. Dinakaran, Sassikala’s nephew is expected to eat into the AIADMK votes substantially, helping DMK and Congress alliance to win overwhelmingly in the state.

Read more at: http://www.sify.com/news/electoral-arithmetic-doesnt-support-bjp-narrative-news-columns-td4lhihajgiee.html
 

prasad1

Well-known member
Hindi heartland that had become impregnable for its opponents and used to be the BJP’s fief till very recently seems to be turning against it. In the assembly elections in Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the saffron party suffered humiliating losses, propelling the Congress party to come to power in the three Hindi heartland states.

A report by IndiaSpend says that in the assembly elections held in November 2018, the BJP lost as many as 180 seats that it won in 2013, while the Congress party gained as many as 162 seats across Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. In the assembly election conducted in the year 2013, the saffron party had emerged victorious in as many as 377 seats while the Congress party had managed to win merely 118 seats. This means the BJP lost 48 percent of the seats it won in 2013, and the Congress gained 137 percent. The IndiaSpend report goes on to add that “Of 678 seats in MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram--which account for a sixth or 15.2 percent of India’s population--the Congress won 305 seats, and the BJP won 199”. There is no denying that the assembly election results give clear insight as to how the electorate are going to vote in the parliamentary elections 2019.

In UP and Bihar, the BJP had completely decimated the opposition in the last Lok Saba polls. But this time, things are looking starkly different in both the states that together send as many as 120 MPs to the Lok Sabha. The coming together of the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) has certainly queered the pitch for the saffron party. With a vote share of 41.3 percent, the BJP had won 71 seats. The SP and the BSP who had been completely marginalized had together polled 41.8 percent votes. Now the two parties have come together along with Ajit Singh’s RLD that has historically a strong vote base in Western UP.

Read more at: http://www.sify.com/news/electoral-arithmetic-doesnt-support-bjp-narrative-news-columns-td4lhihajgiee.html
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member

Jobs Are Biggest Poll Issue For 62% Of Madhya Pradesh Voters: Survey

Now, with such devastation, it is easy to say, BJP will not win a single seat in MP. Same issue so it has RAJ and Chattisgarh.

Similar issues in UP and Bihar as most of them were employed in construction which is totally standstill now.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Now, you can see why I said, this will be a total rout and getting even 50 seats will be tough !!!

These unemployment surveys show how vast the impact of demo and GST have been!! It only validates further the economists view!!
 

prasad1

Well-known member
A midnight raid carried out by observers of the Election Commission of India on the convoy of BJP’s Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu, Deputy CM Chowna Mein and BJP Arunachal President Tapir Gao led to the recovery of ₹1.8 Crore in cash.

The recovery, hours before Prime Minister and ‘Chowkidar’ Narendra Modi addressed an election rally at Pasighat at 10 am on Wednesday, raised uncomfortable questions. Observers, however, believe that the Commission, rather lenient on the BJP and the Prime Minister, will let it go.

Newspapers in Arunachal Pradesh on Wednesday did not carry any report of the rai because it was too late. But the social media circulated videos and audio clips.

 

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