• Welcome to Tamil Brahmins forums.

    You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our Free Brahmin Community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!

    If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact contact us.

National Elections - 2019 prepoll prediction !

prasad1

Well-known member
In a multitude of uncertainties about the 2019 polls, there is one fact we can all agree on: This will not be a wave election. There is neither an upsurge of support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi nor any sort of mass rage against him (of the kind the Congress had to face in 2014).

On the ground, there is, however, clear discontent and simmering anger with the government over economic issues, especially the jobs crisis and agrarian distress. This can erupt in many localised pockets.The Bharatiya Janata Party strategy — apart from redressal through welfare schemes in the interim budget — is to look for other headlines to deflect from the narrative about a desultory economic situation. Hindutva is one such election headline and corruption is evidently the other.

Both the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) swoop in West Bengal in relation to a chit fund scam and the interrogation of Robert Vadra by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) on charges of money laundering are to fortify this counter-narrative. The problem is this: The BJP has got its timing all wrong.

 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
In the backdrop of Pulwama and the Balakot air strikes, there is a surge in popularity for the current govt. Despite this, I am sticking to my 50 seat projection.

Let me explain why -

1. This is actually a huge wave election - just that it is a massive anti govt wave - massive anti incumbency.

2. Farmers are so upset, they are furious that despite 100s of protests over 2 yrs, the govts did not even meet the farmer leaders forget about addressing the issues. And the dole of 2000 is peanuts given the scale of disaster.

3. Traders and entire sectors like textiles, real estate etc.. are devastated with massive job losses. All states are in dire crisis, the highest job loss hit is on UP and Bihar as they were the highest construction workers all across the country.

4. Joblessness - 45 year high and it is terrible to see graduates, masters and PhDs applying for menial jobs.

5. People know that the huge economic impact is due to demonetisation and GST. This narrative is deeply embedded in thier psyche now,

6. India today is extremely well informed unlike 1940s till 1990s. So people know that this govt has not delivered on its promises and are repeatedly raising it in social media.

7. Alliances airthmetic in UP and Bihar and Karnataka will help the mahagatbhandan. Congress has surged ahead under Rahul. It is big surprise to see in the recent "times of india" poll survey, that 43% view Rahul as a credible alternative across the nation. And what a shock this had to be after so much of the Pappu branding...lol

8. BJP core supporters are the traders, msmes and they are the biggest hit in the economy.

9. Nationalism is important but when there is no food on table, and this govt refuses to even acknowledge that demo and GST caused such economic hardships, there is a valconic anger underneath.

10. Finally, people are clearly lying to pollsters, aka harischandran effect 😀, and hence all these issues are not reflected well in the pre poll surveys. In south, BJP wil make very little inroads, and due to severe job crisis in north, there will be massive anti incumbency. And they are indirectly indicating in the surveys that jobs are the #1 issue and that this issue will decide their vote.

In short, farmers, youth who are jobless across all strata of society, traders, msmes, independent and Nuetral Hindus, minorities, govt employees (CBI, RBI, etc,.) will overwhelmingly vote against this govt.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Apart from the harischandran effect, I am also coining the "extremist ideology effect".

Anyone opposing this govt is attacked by a swarm of right wingers in the public forum, whatsapp group, etc..leading to people not airing their views openly. Same can be said about the left wingers in some forums.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Key to this is to analyse, how come 43% people polled across the nation said that Rahul is a credible alternative. This would have been unthinkable a year ago and with so much of negative branding against him.

Remember all the earlier polls were about popularity ratings between PM, Rahul, Mamata, etc.. None of the them were about - is Rahul a credible alternative to this govt.

This shows how much this govt has lost the narrative among people after demo and GST.

Also the Pulwama and Balakot strikes actually lulled this govt into a false sense of victory, leading them to declare the elections immediately.
 

tbs

Well-known member
hi

whatever the reason.....im not so called bhakt.....but....still......BJP IS BETTER THAN CONGRESS...

but one thing this time....bjp should not get single majority....it has to go with regional parties...

last time they got single majority.....so they enjoyed in many WRONG DOINGS....this is the problem

with single majority...
 
Some people are blinded by the Dynasty. The Gandhi Family sucked the blood of India since independence, like mosquitos, and now, they have sympathizers, who have absolutely no idea about the ground realities, but, are cock-sure about the Congress Party propaganda of Lies. NEHRU LIED like nobody's business, so did Indira, Rajiv, Sonia and now Rahul, a family of Liars who wish to continue sucking the blood of India.
Here we have an opportunity, with BJP and NDA, to resurrect India, but, these anti-Modi members, who are probably hurt because the black money dried up, are only thinking about themselves, their business, and their own little cubbyhole, ignoring the country at large. Those who support Liars are Liars themselves.
The Country must be primary in the mind of people not Loyalty to a Family, but Loyalty to the Country. These Modi-haters must begin reading all the govt documents, and even use RTI if needed, to find the truth about, how much more (over 600 %) Modi govt has done for India as compared to the pre-2014 rule of a Stupid Congress Govt with an Idiotic puppet as a PM, guided by a corrupt Finance Minister.
Wake up people, smell the Coffee.
 
Being a "Bhakt" has become a derogatory term among the Tambrams. This term is actually a compliment. Being a Bhakth of something or someone who is righteous and Dharmic, is not bad at all. But, the Pseudo-Southies in India and abroad consider being called a Bhakth as something bad.
Be a Bhakth of the Country, be a Bhakth of the Leader who pulls up the country from doldrums, like Modi has done. Nothing bad at all about it. So dont become a NERD and apologize for being a Bhakth.
Be Real for heaven's sake.
 
Fake statistics are coming out of every hole in the wall. Manipulative statistics, to manipulate the mind of the voters. How can any educated class believe in such stats that are written by brilliant minds of the crooks who are helping the Liars of Congress.
 
In a multitude of uncertainties about the 2019 polls, there is one fact we can all agree on: This will not be a wave election. There is neither an upsurge of support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi nor any sort of mass rage against him (of the kind the Congress had to face in 2014).

On the ground, there is, however, clear discontent and simmering anger with the government over economic issues, especially the jobs crisis and agrarian distress. This can erupt in many localised pockets.The Bharatiya Janata Party strategy — apart from redressal through welfare schemes in the interim budget — is to look for other headlines to deflect from the narrative about a desultory economic situation. Hindutva is one such election headline and corruption is evidently the other.

Both the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) swoop in West Bengal in relation to a chit fund scam and the interrogation of Robert Vadra by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) on charges of money laundering are to fortify this counter-narrative. The problem is this: The BJP has got its timing all wrong.

Ridiculous propaganda by a Congress Stooge.
 
In the backdrop of Pulwama and the Balakot air strikes, there is a surge in popularity for the current govt. Despite this, I am sticking to my 50 seat projection.

Let me explain why -

1. This is actually a huge wave election - just that it is a massive anti govt wave - massive anti incumbency.

2. Farmers are so upset, they are furious that despite 100s of protests over 2 yrs, the govts did not even meet the farmer leaders forget about addressing the issues. And the dole of 2000 is peanuts given the scale of disaster.

3. Traders and entire sectors like textiles, real estate etc.. are devastated with massive job losses. All states are in dire crisis, the highest job loss hit is on UP and Bihar as they were the highest construction workers all across the country.

4. Joblessness - 45 year high and it is terrible to see graduates, masters and PhDs applying for menial jobs.

5. People know that the huge economic impact is due to demonetisation and GST. This narrative is deeply embedded in thier psyche now,

6. India today is extremely well informed unlike 1940s till 1990s. So people know that this govt has not delivered on its promises and are repeatedly raising it in social media.

7. Alliances airthmetic in UP and Bihar and Karnataka will help the mahagatbhandan. Congress has surged ahead under Rahul. It is big surprise to see in the recent "times of india" poll survey, that 43% view Rahul as a credible alternative across the nation. And what a shock this had to be after so much of the Pappu branding...lol

8. BJP core supporters are the traders, msmes and they are the biggest hit in the economy.

9. Nationalism is important but when there is no food on table, and this govt refuses to even acknowledge that demo and GST caused such economic hardships, there is a valconic anger underneath.

10. Finally, people are clearly lying to pollsters, aka harischandran effect 😀, and hence all these issues are not reflected well in the pre poll surveys. In south, BJP wil make very little inroads, and due to severe job crisis in north, there will be massive anti incumbency. And they are indirectly indicating in the surveys that jobs are the #1 issue and that this issue will decide their vote.

In short, farmers, youth who are jobless across all strata of society, traders, msmes, independent and Nuetral Hindus, minorities, govt employees (CBI, RBI, etc,.) will overwhelmingly vote against this govt.
Are you fro the Tukde-Tukde gang of JNU? All that you have written is wrong and a Congress Propaganda. There are people dying of hunger in india, can you say that India is starving its people? There are Chors who cannot run a business without the use of BlackMoneyy, does this mean that Indians are all corrupt? Dont bend statistics to suit your thinking. You are doing an injustice towards the nation.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member

Elections 2019: Jobs Failure Will Sink Modi
All the hype about Modi’s schemes and ‘nationalism’ will not wash away the pain of joblessness.

Recent opinion polls, including one by a TV news channel that is otherwise quite sympathetic to the Modi government, show that employment is identified as the single biggest issue by voters across the country. While air strikes and the project inauguration blitz of PM Modi – 157 projects “launched” between February 8 and March 7 – has hogged media space, the unaddressed issue of joblessness is continuing to worry most people. And, it is bound to affect voting behaviour in the coming weeks.
...
...


Since Modi and his electoral machinery is blissfully unaware and silent about this catastrophe that is happening every day, and since the media too is blithely pretending that there is no problem as long as we are doing well in ease of doing business rankings, it is safe to say that Modi and the BJP are headed for a surprise of their lives when votes are counted on May 23 this year.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Are you fro the Tukde-Tukde gang of JNU? All that you have written is wrong and a Congress Propaganda. There are people dying of hunger in india, can you say that India is starving its people? There are Chors who cannot run a business without the use of BlackMoneyy, does this mean that Indians are all corrupt? Dont bend statistics to suit your thinking. You are doing an injustice towards the nation.
LOL. On the contrary, you are the one doing a great injustice to the nation by pushing a "failed govt" based on right wing propaganda !!

Let's analyse how you are doing this great injustice.

1. Demonetisation - Big Fail. Millions of businesses closed down, millions of people lost jobs.

2. GST - Big Fail - ill conceived policy with disastrous implementation. Millions of businesses closed, millions of people lost jobs.

3. 2 Crore Jobs per year - Big Fail. No jobs were created but 100s of millions lost. Unemployment at 45 yr high - I did not write this report, the govt did.

4. 15 lakhs - Big Fail. None has got any money, let alone 15 lakhs.

5. Sabka sath Sabka Vikas - Big Fail. Communal hatred, lynchistan, gau rakshaks running riot, senior ministers and leaders talking and spreading hatred openly on TV.

6. Development - Big Fail. MassiveNPA crisis, Banks are collapsing, IDBI collapsed, ilfs collapsed, banks recapitalisation. Big businesses on bankruptcy. Million of jobs lost.

7. Swatch Bharat - Big Fail - None of the cities are clean, Ganga is filled with all chemical waste from companies.

6. Ujwala scheme - Big Fail - Most of the people in informal sector have lost jobs, how can they pay for monthly gas ??

7. Toilets - Big Fail - I have travelled 1000s of kms in the last 2 yrs, have not seen a single toilet anywhere on the highways, temple towns, villages. None, nada, nope, zero..

8. Farm crisis - Mega Fail - Never in the history we have had such massive crisis, that farmers are continuously protesting for 2 yrs even after the dole money of 6000 per year.

And on and on..

To add to this disaster, the govt is not even acknowledging that they made a mistake in demo and GST. Forget about taking corrective action. So on what basis, should anyone give this govt another chance ?? If they acknowledge and take corrective action, then atleast we can give anther chance.

And with such spectacular failure, non performance, you are pushing for people to vote again for this govt.

Aren't you doing a great injustice to the nation by pushing such failures ??
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
9. Corruption - Big Fail. Rafale deal expose. And to boot NO Lokpal was setup when the entire 2014 campaign was centred on this !!
 

prasad1

Well-known member
PM Modi Least Liked In South & Punjab, Popularity Just 2.2% In TN

Almost all of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visits to south India, particularly Tamil Nadu, have been marked by slogans of “Modi Go Back” by local groups as well as on social media. If survey data is to be believed, the protests may well represent a broader phenomenon: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s deep unpopularity in the south.

According to data collected by C-Voter from over 60,000 voters in all 543 Lok Sabha seats over the last three months, the dissatisfaction with Modi is the deepest in the southern states and Punjab while his popularity is the highest in Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Goa and Haryana, where 74 percent, 68.3 percent, 66 percent and 65.9 percent voters respectively say that they are satisfied with his performance as prime minister.

 

krish44

Well-known member
The indian air strike across the border is likely to swing votes in favour of BJP. not withstanding economic

issues,joblessness.Congess does not appear to be serious about 2019 elections and not trying hard enough to

avoid opposition vote split. Since Rahul has taken a back seat, Sonia gandhi is forcing the old guard to contest

most seats.Priyanka has drafted in UP and is working against the Gathbandhan.Pawar is trying to patch up

and becoming peacemaker between AAP and congress in delhi. In maharashtra , he has got cogress and NCP

together.

Still it is an open election. At present BJP and NDA are clearly ahead. UPA may improve its tally . But highly

unlikely to form the govt at the centre.

Hindi states hold the key.MP and Rajasthan might be the deciders.Thats where BJP and NDA has to make up

its losses if any in UP.
 

krish44

Well-known member
Every party has some committed voters . Their votes are pre decided.

It is the first time voters or last minute deciders who hold the key

Pollsters cannot predict the results.

They rarely get their predictions right.

In closely fought elections some last minute incident can change voter perceptions.

No one expected NDA to lose in 2014.They did lose

After Balakot it is advantage NDA..

Let us see if any other incident moves people to vote differently
 

Kodukku

Member
PM Modi Least Liked In South & Punjab, Popularity Just 2.2% In TN

Almost all of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visits to south India, particularly Tamil Nadu, have been marked by slogans of “Modi Go Back” by local groups as well as on social media. If survey data is to be believed, the protests may well represent a broader phenomenon: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s deep unpopularity in the south.


It is vice-versa.lol

Go back to Italy: Farmers protest as Rahul Gandhi visits Amethi

The farmers protested in Gauriganj town in Amethi district on Wednesday demanding that either their land that was given to Rajiv Gandhi Foundation should be returned or they are provided employment.



Farmers staged a protest and raised slogans against Congress president Rahul Gandhi in his parliamentary constituency Amethi in Uttar Pradesh.



The farmers protested in Gauriganj town in Amethi district on Wednesday demanding that either their land that was given to Rajiv Gandhi Foundation should be returned or they are provided employment.



Rahul Gandhi yesterday visited Amethi for campaigning for the general elections.



One of the protesters, Sanjay Sing told ANI: "We are very upset with Rahul Gandhi. He should go back to Italy. He does not deserve to be here. Rahul has grabbed our land."



Read more at: https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/go-back-to-italy-farmers-protest-as-rahul-gandhi-visits-amethi-1438137-2019-01-24



In Tamil Nadu, Tamil people love their language and unfortunately, there is no one in BJP who is a good speaker in Tamil language.



Modi and other leaders of BJP may come and only to deliver the speech in Hindi in which the Tamilians are not much interested.



Besides, Tamil Nadu is performing better than other States in India where BJP is ruled. So, the people of this State, may likely to think that what is the need to support BJP to spread its wing in Tamil Nadu.
 
Last edited:

Follow Tamil Brahmins on Social Media

Latest posts

Top