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National Elections - 2019 prepoll prediction !

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Post the 2018 elections, lets evaluate the potential nos the 2 alliance formations.

Given the drubbing that NDA got in 2018, most opine this election is wide open.

However my view is that this will be q complete rout for NDA for the following reasons.

1. Farmers crisis - the entire rural sector will vote against the govt.
2. SC/ST Groups - will vote entirely against this govt due to the sc/st act issues.
3. Youth - Massive job crisis is leading to massive discontent in this group. Hence urban seats are not safe.
4. Traders - GST has strangled the businesses particularly the smes and they will vote entirely against the govt.
5. Minorities - will vote entirely against the govt.

Let's look at the nos by state -

Approx esrimate -
1. MP, Raj, Chattisgarh - Cong - 30 out of 62
2. Tamil Nadu - DMK - 39 out of 39
3. Karnatka - JDS - 10 out of 28
4. Telangana - KCR 17 out of 17
5. Kerala - communist/cong 20 out of 20
6. WB - Didi 42 out of 42
7. UP - Maya/Aki - 35 out of 80
8. Maha - NCP/Cong - 25 out of 48
9. Bihar - Lalu alliance 10 out of 40
10. Guj - Cong 10 out of 28
11. Harayana/Himachal /Oth - 15
12. Andra - Naidu 10 seats out of 25.
12. Punjab - Cong - 10 out of 13

Total - 290 seats

In short, Stalin KCR and Mamta will sweep their states and prepoll surveys support that. I feel UP they will lose big time, as the discontent against yogi is growing.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
To clarify, I feel it will be a rout for nda due to the massive discontent !!

However for the estimate nos, I have taken the pre poll surveys from different media and added my inputs, so even a fairly grounded estimate gives the edge to UPA.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Also I have not considered Delhi - aap will get some seats here, and similarly very low estimate for Haryana, Himachal, jarkhand, entire north east.

As we continue to get more and more data, we will get more clarity on them !!
 

Brahmanyan

Well-known member
I feel it is too early to predict the results in the National Elections in 2019. The projections in Media looks more of wishful thinking than real estimates. We know that State Elections and National Elections are fought on different issues. It has been proved again and again that negative politics alone will not give positive results. As on date even after all permutation and combination, we have not seen uniformity to elect one single leader among the opposition Parties to lead the group. Every leader including single digit Party ambitious to become PM.
Agreed it looks difficult for NDA to enjoy the same massive mandate as they got in 2014. But the TINA factor may push them in front to get enough seats to rule the Country again after elections in 2019.

Brahmanyan
Bangalore.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Not necessarily ! Voters now have seen this govt action for over 4.5 yrs and the immense suffering due to demo and gst.

So most of them have very strong opinions and is unlikely to change. In fact the more the people suffer due to the sluggish economy, they will vote against the govt.

Even a farm loan waiver will not help as there is no time to implement.

And more rallies bjp does, it will be more negative for them as people are upset and don't want to listen to some unknown achievement !! LoL
 

naithru

Active member
quote <<Not necessarily ! Voters now have seen this govt action for over 4.5 yrs and the immense suffering due to demo and gst. >> unquote
dear jaykay767 the media and the opposition parties have a well orchestrated and out to support the so called minorities. most of the people read the news and believe it in toto. As if we had not suffered during the past. is it possible to change within 5 years?? the long term agenda will work slowly. The change has its own time.
 

vgane

Well-known member
It is too early to predict the outcome. May be by Jan end when we would know the response to NaMorallies(He is planning 100 rallies in next 100 days). Contour of opposition unity in states like UP will decide the outcome. In TN you cannot write off NDA...They may get 2 to 3 seats atleast
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
The biggest impact on jobs are from UP, Bihar and Jharkhand. Most of them were working as construction workers. Given the total collapse in real estate, all these jobs are gone.

Not to mention the impact on other areas due to demo and GST.

Hence my view that there will be total rout in UP Bihar and Jharkhand. In maha, the right wing votes will split between bjp and shiva Senai, hence Cong/ncp will either sweep of get a huge majority of the seats there.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Namo rallies will backfire and will only make it worse. The only unverified achievements of this govt are roads, toilets and electricity, all of them are useless to a jobless and starving rural population !!!
 
I think all conjectures and negative propaganda against Modi govt. is full of hog-wash. When I travel around the country, I speak to people in all walks of life, there is a lot of contentment with this government and almost 90% of the people I spoke to say they want Modi back. It is the media houses, tied up to anti-Modi opposition benchers, who are helping with negative propaganda, rather than just reporting news. They generalize and indulge in overstating isolated incidents. Most traders and SMEs are happy after getting used to better systems brought forth through introduction of GST. Yes, GST's positive effects will not be felt immediately, but, in the long run, it is a blessing for any business. One must be able to Visualize things beyond the tip of ones nose. Short term thinking has led to all the corruption in the country. short term thinking leads businesses to misfortunes and they blame government policy for it. The opposition are lying, using fake statistics, to rundown the good work done by this government. India has never enjoyed a successful administration like this ever since independence. If we have any brains and a small amount of national pride, we would give this government a fair chance and one more term to see the implementation of their schemes through.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
This govt has messed up with a series of wrong policies implemented with disastrous consequences, like demo, GST, bankruptcy law, Rera, food policy, institutional collapse, rafale.

The entire farming community is in a total disaster and they have been protesting for the last 2 yrs almost non stop. Not sure how anyone can say 90% of people are happy via informal discussion when there are so many surveys show the farmer distress, job crisis, trader distress, real estate crisis, etc..

So even if we agree of biased media, the results of these policies have been disastrous. And what long term benefits will come of all this disasters ?

So why should anyone give this govt another chance? Another chance to further mess up ?
 
N

nkrish

Guest
Post the 2018 elections, lets evaluate the potential nos the 2 alliance formations.

Given the drubbing that NDA got in 2018, most opine this election is wide open.

However my view is that this will be q complete rout for NDA for the following reasons.

1. Farmers crisis - the entire rural sector will vote against the govt.
2. SC/ST Groups - will vote entirely against this govt due to the sc/st act issues.
3. Youth - Massive job crisis is leading to massive discontent in this group. Hence urban seats are not safe.
4. Traders - GST has strangled the businesses particularly the smes and they will vote entirely against the govt.
5. Minorities - will vote entirely against the govt.

Let's look at the nos by state -

Approx esrimate -
1. MP, Raj, Chattisgarh - Cong - 30 out of 62
2. Tamil Nadu - DMK - 39 out of 39
3. Karnatka - JDS - 10 out of 28
4. Telangana - KCR 17 out of 17
5. Kerala - communist/cong 20 out of 20
6. WB - Didi 42 out of 42
7. UP - Maya/Aki - 35 out of 80
8. Maha - NCP/Cong - 25 out of 48
9. Bihar - Lalu alliance 10 out of 40
10. Guj - Cong 10 out of 28
11. Harayana/Himachal /Oth - 15
12. Andra - Naidu 10 seats out of 25.
12. Punjab - Cong - 10 out of 13

Total - 290 seats

In short, Stalin KCR and Mamta will sweep their states and prepoll surveys support that. I feel UP they will lose big time, as the discontent against yogi is growing.
 
N

nkrish

Guest
வினாஸ காலே விபரீத புத்தி. கலி யுகே ப்ரதமே பாதத்தில் இதுவும் நடக்கும் இன்னமும் நடக்கும். UPA ஆட்சியில் கவலை படாதீர்கள். நாட்டில் தேன்,பால் ஆறாக ஓடும். மக்கள்
சுபிக்‌ஷமாக இருப்பார்கள். வரலாற்றில் இதுவும்கூட ஒரு பொற்காலமாக கருதப்படும் .
 
Many TV channels and newspapers are publishing anti Modi statements, like what Goebel of Germany did -repeat lies infinite times.Take Rafael fighter plane case: Instead of Congress explaining why , for 10 years, they could/did not conclude the deal they are talking rubbish repeatedly.When supreme court declared that the deal was legally ok the congress could not digest it. During the UPA rule the congress was very careful not to conclude any arms deal so that the indian military remained most vulnerable. Was there a hidden agenda?
Demonetisation caused biggest problems for those with illegal money accumulated , over a period of time, in cash. Even with few corrupt bank officials' help they could not convert all their ill gotten cash; and , here, all the political parties suffered and hence their vehement hatred towards Modi.But,the common man did appreciate it. This , I experienced at both Varanasi as well as in Chattisgarh state where I was working during the said period. Let us not forget, all Modi's actions were necessitated due to past mismanagement of India by UPA/ Congress government.
It is the duty of every responsible citizen ( read Tamil nadu brahmins) to vote for Modi as, otherwise, there are many vultures waiting to tear India to pieces.
 

dswamy44

Member
Post the 2018 elections, lets evaluate the potential nos the 2 alliance formations.

Given the drubbing that NDA got in 2018, most opine this election is wide open.

However my view is that this will be q complete rout for NDA for the following reasons.

1. Farmers crisis - the entire rural sector will vote against the govt.
2. SC/ST Groups - will vote entirely against this govt due to the sc/st act issues.
3. Youth - Massive job crisis is leading to massive discontent in this group. Hence urban seats are not safe.
4. Traders - GST has strangled the businesses particularly the smes and they will vote entirely against the govt.
5. Minorities - will vote entirely against the govt.

Let's look at the nos by state -

Approx esrimate -
1. MP, Raj, Chattisgarh - Cong - 30 out of 62
2. Tamil Nadu - DMK - 39 out of 39
3. Karnatka - JDS - 10 out of 28
4. Telangana - KCR 17 out of 17
5. Kerala - communist/cong 20 out of 20
6. WB - Didi 42 out of 42
7. UP - Maya/Aki - 35 out of 80
8. Maha - NCP/Cong - 25 out of 48
9. Bihar - Lalu alliance 10 out of 40
10. Guj - Cong 10 out of 28
11. Harayana/Himachal /Oth - 15
12. Andra - Naidu 10 seats out of 25.
12. Punjab - Cong - 10 out of 13

Total - 290 seats

In short, Stalin KCR and Mamta will sweep their states and prepoll surveys support that. I feel UP they will lose big time, as the discontent against yogi is growing.
The percentage of votes for BJP in the stste elections has been good.
In summary
UPA alliance - 290
NDA alliance - 222
BJp's vote share in 2018 was pretty good. They will work out seat-sharing strategy and highlight all they hv done to the people and win. Grounds for Stste elections and parliament elections are different. They may also expose the false propaganda of the opposition. Aiadmk cannot be written off like that.
 
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