• Welcome to Tamil Brahmins forums.

    You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our Free Brahmin Community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!

    If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact contact us.

Modi 2.0 - How did we all miss the Tsunami !!

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Modi 2.0 - How did we all miss the Tsunami !!

So now let's get to brass tacks on how the hell did most of the media (till exit polls) and the liberals miss this landslide win. And we had some exit pollsters on online media predicting the defeat of BJP even as late as phase 5 !!!

Let's revisit this again and analyse it differently !!

Some background -

1. Demo and GST did cause widespread damage and this shows up in the official reports and nos, - massive NPAs of the banks, ilfs collapse, IDBI collapse, businesses closed down, GST revenue shortfall etc.. Any assessment has to be based on hard nos, not on individual opinions.
2. National finances are in major doldrums as per the govts own finance ministry reports, bank NPAs, Massive liquidity crisis in nbfc lending, jobless reports.
3. Informal sector collapsed and demand from informal sector shifted to formal sector leading to a bull run in stock markets in 2017/2018 as revenues went up for formal companies. Apart from short term pent up demand.
4. Overall Demand did go down after demo and GST, and took time to recover. This shows up in the fall in consumption during this time. And we could see visible lack of footfalls in shops and malls immediately after demo and in most of 2017.
5. All the reasons given so far - nationalism, money power, mainstream media and social media propaganda, alleged evm tampering, etc...are all fringe ones, none of them address, why would poor people struggling for money vote for this govt ?, specially after losing their jobs directly due to demo and GST.

So the big question, why did the people from informal sector vote for this govt ??

In one line, the answer is - "most people actually gamed and looted and made money from the twin disasters". Hence they really wanted this "illicha Vai" govt to come back with more such policies..LOL.

Yep, surprising, read on !

Let's see how.

* Black money businesses scammed the system post demo via Jan dhan accounts, etc.. and converted the black money to white without paying any taxes. They helped each other, used all their workers and servants bank accounts to hoard and convert to white money. These were not isolated instances.

* So impact of demo on informal sector from a black money perspective was minimal except for those who held crores of black money in cash who had to work overtime to convert them to white.

* All the poor people across the country from Kanyakumari to Kashmir, from servants, car drivers, road side touts, shop keepers, jan dhan account holders etc all of them made money by helping the corrupt convert their black money to white. They uniformly made 5 to 15% commission. Hence they actually made money from demo mess. Hence, they voted back this govt in UP and other assembly elections that followed demo.

* Hence the widespread narrative among poor that demo caused problem for black money operators than white money. These poor actually saw the struggle of the corrupt when they had to beg them to convert their money.

* Most small businesses and employees looted the banks, nbfcs, cooperative banks, societies, by "deliberately defaulting" on their loans in this mega mess of twin shocks,..so they ended up making lots and lots of money from this mess. In the enormous din raised by liberals seculars left, the small businesses took advantage and defaulted on all their loans leading to massive bank NPAs.

* Business owners cleverly closed their formal businesses as loss, shifted locations where possible and then opened a informal black money business in its place, hired the same workers and continued to operate, albeit at a slower pace as the economy was yet to recover. So these workers lost formal jobs and gained informal jobs. Hence it showed job loss in the official records but no job gain. So much for formalisation of economy.

* Some cases where they had to have GST registration (some suppliers like Samsung refused to sell if the small businesses did not have GST registration) to do business with formal sector, they used it minimally and took advantage of the 40 lakh cap for not filing the GST returns. Rest of all the business were totally informal and in black economy.

* Construction - most builders closed their formal businesses and opened informal ones & continued their business informally taking smaller projects like building individual houses, expanding, etc..they reduced exposure to big apartments, etc.. Rest of the workers went back home and worked on MNREGA schemes, or supported in their small family run businesses or opened new small businesses or took mudra loans.

* Mudra loans - this is another avenue, where most of the jobless from informal sector gamed the govt, banks and got loans and did not do anything. They neither started the business nor did anything. Took the money and walked away, that's why in the bank report it showed most mudra loans have become NPAs. If the govt can harass people, people can harass the govt as well. LOL !!!

* In short, most people in formal sector "gained" from this twin disaster - demo commission, deliberately defaulting on bank loans, & those who did not gain in the these 2, went got their money from mudra loan mess. So almost everyone gained except for the farm sector contrary to the media narratives.

* The biggest impact was farm sector which the govts tried to address via farm loan waivers, subsidies and direct transfer schemes. So by the time we headed to the elections, this issue subsided to some extent.

* Startups - Due to Angel tax, most startups went under the table as informal companies and started employing people and building their businesses. So the large VC funded ones came down and they struggled as shown in reports. But people continued to work under the radar in informal setups.

* Formal sector jobless - many of the jobless from IT, etc.. were not sitting idle, they worked on "work from home sites" like fiverr, etc...and worked on projects, inline blogs, etc.. making some decent money. I did some digging to find this out.. So they were technically jobless and appeared in all reports but they were making money.

* In short, the state finances collapsed due to NPAs, lower GST revenues, lower tax collections, banks in dire stress, but the informal sector except for farm sector actually came out ahead. They didn't have to pay loans, defaulted them deliberately in this mega stupid mess created by the govts, helped each other, many black money operators closed existing business and opened another one to cover their past, etc.. Kids in the formal sector worked on many work from home sites and made money even though they were formally still jobless.

* Bonus from elections - And money distributed during the campaign was added bonus (you know who had the max money from electoral bonds) and so with the situation being so good, why will they not vote for this govt again. LOL !!

Surprisingly, no one bothered to dig deeper into the ground reality, including the govt, otherwise, they would not have spent so much time and blood fighting wars in north east with Mamata and on citizenship bill. BJP was in panic, so tried their best to expand in north east, Kerala and Karnataka to offset anticipated loss in Hindi heartland. Only after the election phases went on, it became clear to BJP, they were actually winning big.

Now the informal sector is slowly staging a come back, so demand fulfilled by formal sector has gone back to the informal sector. Also any purchases that need PAN # is seeing a huge fall as people have completely shifted to informal sector. Hence the fall in purchases of new scooters, cars, etc..but you can see robust sales in used car markets !!

Our people "fooled" everyone, gamed the system, looted the banks, nbfcs, etc.. officially by deliberately defaulting on loans by saying economy in a mess, and enjoyed while the idiotic media and papers went hammer and tong that people are suffering. That's how everyone missed this tsunami including those in the govt !!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Demonetisation redistributed wealth from the corrupt rich to the poor in every street of india. No scheme could have done such a wide redistribution. So while the demo was a stupid policy, it turned out to be a blessing for the poor.

GST is another money making scheme, where the msmes are gaming and claiming bogus refunds and you can see the consistent fall in the monthly revenues. some of this got reported in media as we'll.

And state govt corruption continued in the last 2 yrs unabated, this gave more avenues for middlemen, govt employees, and informal sector people to make money and continue their lievelyhood.

In this world view, it is easy to imagine even a 400 seat win for the govt. They are leaking money almost over. Hence the economy slowdown has not impacted the poor in a way we all expected.
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
I hear, many businesses in city, towns have now formally started their own farming back in their home villages, to funnel black money and convert to white, as farm incomes are tax exempts.

This will redistribute the corrupt money to the poor in the farm sector, though in a trickle down effect. these corrupt will have to hire minimal farm workers to keep this charade going !

So in the effort to beat the govt policies, to convert black to white money, the corrupt are redistributing their wealth to the poor al across the country, and this is the big big story all of us missed !!!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Having said this, the farm sector is in a major crisis, score of farmers are still suiciding and this is a terrible tragedy !

More than the govt Kisan pension schemes, I think the corrupt in their mega effort to convert black to white, will start more and more farm businesses and solve this problem too !!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
And no reason for this not to continue ! I mean, the corrupt, once trust has been established, can and will continue to use the poor to convert black to white money.

They can funnel the regular black money by channeling them via the millions of bank accounts of the poor for a commission, giving them valuable livelyhood !

LOL !!
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
In the most convoluted way, all the actions by the govt, the twin disasters of demo and GST, IT notices on millions of corrupt after demo, GST raids, etc.. created an environment, where the corrupt had to look to the poor to bail them out.

In the process, the poor gained and made money. In fact, I would go step further, this continuing symbiotic relationship between corrupt and the poor, not only stemmed the economic impact, but also uplifted many of the poor via easy access to money which was not available before !!

Otherwise the severe economic impact after demo and GST could have caused widespread unrest among the poor.

Hence there was no anti incumbency except the farm sector, even though the economy slowed down, and the informal sector had to go through a massive rejig and realignment.

The incompetence of our media to go below the surface and study this is staggering and they singularly misled everyone by shouting loudly that poor are suffering and dying all over.

This does not mean, the poor and jobless are not suffering, but the scale and volume are much lesser and not as widespread as projected.
 

KRN

Active member
As a believer, my humble take is that a Divine Power is with Modi ji, that leads him to tremendous success in all his political battles.

Ever since he started handling party affairs in Gujarat, his party never lost elections. Here I am not focusing on anything else, Like intra party hassles, revolt by Shankar Singh Vaghela etc, 2002 riots etc etc - just election results. The same winning trend continues after he became GUJ CM. And all through 2019. He has not tasted defeat at all..

How the hell did most of the media (till exit polls) and the liberals miss this landslide win
Perhaps because the majority of media and liberals consist of analytical minded people who don't believe in "divine powers" :)
 

Jaykay767

Well-known member
KRN Ji,
Sorry have to disagree !
Not sure, if you read my thread on politics &I karma, you are on the wrong side of the moral divide !
No good can come from supporting parties that indulge in communal hated, lynchings and violence.

JK.
 

KRN

Active member
KRN Ji,
Sorry have to disagree !
Not sure, if you read my thread on politics &I karma, you are on the wrong side of the moral divide !
No good can come from supporting parties that indulge in communal hated, lynchings and violence.

JK.
JK ji,

Anyone who indulges in these things will reap the results too. I have no doubt about the law of karma. But with respect to Modi ji, I believe the SC has exonerated him from complicity in the Guj riots.

I hope you agree that, whether you are on the side of Mr Modi or against it, if there is a pattern in his victories, it is worth taking notice of it. How does he achieve such remarkable victories through out his career?
Has the media or any liberal done an in-depth study into his pattern of victories over the past 3 decades and how he has been able to replicate them so efficiently. I mean NO superficial clichés like "communal polarization" and so on - but in depth, studying his impact on each constituency.
 
Last edited:

Jaykay767

Well-known member
In summary, the great thing is the poor really voted on "their economic self interest", not on Balakot, not on communal polarisation, not on rhetoric, rallies, money power, media propaganda etc..

Even when there was vindictive IT raids on opposition, some poor people were saying it is good, let some portion of the corrupt suffer. The more the govt goes after the corrupt, they have to depend on the poor to hide/convert the black money on a ongoing basis !! By voting for opposition, the anti corruption drive would have come down, which is not in their interest !

Well, all is well that ends well ! Who am I to complain if the poor gets their due after 70+ yrs of independence !!
 

varasani

Member
Modi 2.0 - How did we all miss the Tsunami !!

So now let's get to brass tacks on how the hell did most of the media (till exit polls) and the liberals miss this landslide win. And we had some exit pollsters on online media predicting the defeat of BJP even as late as phase 5 !!!

Let's revisit this again and analyse it differently !!

Some background -

1. Demo and GST did cause widespread damage and this shows up in the official reports and nos, - massive NPAs of the banks, ilfs collapse, IDBI collapse, businesses closed down, GST revenue shortfall etc.. Any assessment has to be based on hard nos, not on individual opinions.
2. National finances are in major doldrums as per the govts own finance ministry reports, bank NPAs, Massive liquidity crisis in nbfc lending, jobless reports.
3. Informal sector collapsed and demand from informal sector shifted to formal sector leading to a bull run in stock markets in 2017/2018 as revenues went up for formal companies. Apart from short term pent up demand.
4. Overall Demand did go down after demo and GST, and took time to recover. This shows up in the fall in consumption during this time. And we could see visible lack of footfalls in shops and malls immediately after demo and in most of 2017.
5. All the reasons given so far - nationalism, money power, mainstream media and social media propaganda, alleged evm tampering, etc...are all fringe ones, none of them address, why would poor people struggling for money vote for this govt ?, specially after losing their jobs directly due to demo and GST.

So the big question, why did the people from informal sector vote for this govt ??

In one line, the answer is - "most people actually gamed and looted and made money from the twin disasters". Hence they really wanted this "illicha Vai" govt to come back with more such policies..LOL.

Yep, surprising, read on !

Let's see how.

* Black money businesses scammed the system post demo via Jan dhan accounts, etc.. and converted the black money to white without paying any taxes. They helped each other, used all their workers and servants bank accounts to hoard and convert to white money. These were not isolated instances.

* So impact of demo on informal sector from a black money perspective was minimal except for those who held crores of black money in cash who had to work overtime to convert them to white.

* All the poor people across the country from Kanyakumari to Kashmir, from servants, car drivers, road side touts, shop keepers, jan dhan account holders etc all of them made money by helping the corrupt convert their black money to white. They uniformly made 5 to 15% commission. Hence they actually made money from demo mess. Hence, they voted back this govt in UP and other assembly elections that followed demo.

* Hence the widespread narrative among poor that demo caused problem for black money operators than white money. These poor actually saw the struggle of the corrupt when they had to beg them to convert their money.

* Most small businesses and employees looted the banks, nbfcs, cooperative banks, societies, by "deliberately defaulting" on their loans in this mega mess of twin shocks,..so they ended up making lots and lots of money from this mess. In the enormous din raised by liberals seculars left, the small businesses took advantage and defaulted on all their loans leading to massive bank NPAs.

* Business owners cleverly closed their formal businesses as loss, shifted locations where possible and then opened a informal black money business in its place, hired the same workers and continued to operate, albeit at a slower pace as the economy was yet to recover. So these workers lost formal jobs and gained informal jobs. Hence it showed job loss in the official records but no job gain. So much for formalisation of economy.

* Some cases where they had to have GST registration (some suppliers like Samsung refused to sell if the small businesses did not have GST registration) to do business with formal sector, they used it minimally and took advantage of the 40 lakh cap for not filing the GST returns. Rest of all the business were totally informal and in black economy.

* Construction - most builders closed their formal businesses and opened informal ones & continued their business informally taking smaller projects like building individual houses, expanding, etc..they reduced exposure to big apartments, etc.. Rest of the workers went back home and worked on MNREGA schemes, or supported in their small family run businesses or opened new small businesses or took mudra loans.

* Mudra loans - this is another avenue, where most of the jobless from informal sector gamed the govt, banks and got loans and did not do anything. They neither started the business nor did anything. Took the money and walked away, that's why in the bank report it showed most mudra loans have become NPAs. If the govt can harass people, people can harass the govt as well. LOL !!!

* In short, most people in formal sector "gained" from this twin disaster - demo commission, deliberately defaulting on bank loans, & those who did not gain in the these 2, went got their money from mudra loan mess. So almost everyone gained except for the farm sector contrary to the media narratives.

* The biggest impact was farm sector which the govts tried to address via farm loan waivers, subsidies and direct transfer schemes. So by the time we headed to the elections, this issue subsided to some extent.

* Startups - Due to Angel tax, most startups went under the table as informal companies and started employing people and building their businesses. So the large VC funded ones came down and they struggled as shown in reports. But people continued to work under the radar in informal setups.

* Formal sector jobless - many of the jobless from IT, etc.. were not sitting idle, they worked on "work from home sites" like fiverr, etc...and worked on projects, inline blogs, etc.. making some decent money. I did some digging to find this out.. So they were technically jobless and appeared in all reports but they were making money.

* In short, the state finances collapsed due to NPAs, lower GST revenues, lower tax collections, banks in dire stress, but the informal sector except for farm sector actually came out ahead. They didn't have to pay loans, defaulted them deliberately in this mega stupid mess created by the govts, helped each other, many black money operators closed existing business and opened another one to cover their past, etc.. Kids in the formal sector worked on many work from home sites and made money even though they were formally still jobless.

* Bonus from elections - And money distributed during the campaign was added bonus (you know who had the max money from electoral bonds) and so with the situation being so good, why will they not vote for this govt again. LOL !!

Surprisingly, no one bothered to dig deeper into the ground reality, including the govt, otherwise, they would not have spent so much time and blood fighting wars in north east with Mamata and on citizenship bill. BJP was in panic, so tried their best to expand in north east, Kerala and Karnataka to offset anticipated loss in Hindi heartland. Only after the election phases went on, it became clear to BJP, they were actually winning big.

Now the informal sector is slowly staging a come back, so demand fulfilled by formal sector has gone back to the informal sector. Also any purchases that need PAN # is seeing a huge fall as people have completely shifted to informal sector. Hence the fall in purchases of new scooters, cars, etc..but you can see robust sales in used car markets !!

Our people "fooled" everyone, gamed the system, looted the banks, nbfcs, etc.. officially by deliberately defaulting on loans by saying economy in a mess, and enjoyed while the idiotic media and papers went hammer and tong that people are suffering. That's how everyone missed this tsunami including those in the govt !!

Personal micro loans have had the highest loan payment rates ever! Wonder where you got your stats?! Also GST revenue has been increasing and the Income Tax collections every quarter by individuals as well as businesses.

College Friends I know who are running businesses in TN, Gujarat and Telengana say the gst regime has streamlined their taxes and reduced harassment from state business tax guys!

Demonetisation didn't work as well per RBI stats on money on circulation pre and post demon were at 99%. But do take note what was Rahul Gandhi talking about bringing back demonetised notes back into circulation if Congress were voted into power?

The Rajiv Gandhi rural jobs scheme was corrupt. In many villages including my native place, the local congress guy would give Rs 40 for doing no work and take Rs 60 as cut and a signature that you did some work! Those were the heights of corruption that people got tired of. The endless scams of Congress was what people got tired of. Not some frivolous reasons that the voices in your head are screaming to you! Do some good for the country and not be digging Graves in name of some grand analysis which holds no logic or intelligence!
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Jaykay767

Well-known member
You seem to have taken your personal biases against Modi, combined with disdain for people who are not on your side of political views and labeled them as conniving, dishonest, greedy, self serving etc and pinned it as the reason for the victory! LMAO !

Personal micro loans have had the highest loan payment rates ever! Wonder where you got your stats?! Also GST revenue has been increasing and the Income Tax collections every quarter by individuals as well as businesses.

College Friends I know who are running businesses in TN, Gujarat and Telengana say the gst regime has streamlined their taxes and reduced harassment from state business tax guys!

Demonetisation didn't work as well per RBI stats on money on circulation pre and post demon were at 99%. But do take note what was Rahul Gandhi talking about bringing back demonetised notes back into circulation if Congress were voted into power?

The Rajiv Gandhi rural jobs scheme was corrupt. In many villages including my native place, the local congress guy would give Rs 40 for doing no work and take Rs 60 as cut and a signature that you did some work! Those were the heights of corruption that people got tired of. The endless scams of Congress was what people got tired of. Not some frivolous reasons that the voices in your head are screaming to you! Do some good for the country and not be digging Graves in name of some grand analysis which holds no logic or intelligence!
On the contrary, this post of yours exposes your lack of intelligence that has come to dominate this country in this Andh bakth world. You wouldn't understand logic if someone screamed It into your silly head, Don't be a foolish Andh Bakth and dig your own grave !!

Do some good for country and yourself by being a desh bakth and a God bakth not a Andh bakth for some party, ideology or leader.

Don't come to Internet forums to deride and abuse others, instead of countering the posts with logic and facts, it only exposes your lack of intelligence !!

If you want to debate, first give respect, logically argue with facts, why the points made in this post are wrong. During demonetisation, every crook converted his money using the poor Jan dhan bank accounts, there are many media reports to substantiate this. Similarly many media reports, where people have claimed bogus GST refunds. And we have always had huge informal black economy which bypasses the entire tax net irrespective of sales tax or vat or now GST.

So it is basic common sense understanding that contrary to media narrative, it is highly possible that demo and GST had minimal impact to poor except for the farmers.

I have zero tolerance policy for anyone posting any crack pot comments about my post, so watch out what you say next. Any further abuse post from you will lead to disproportionate abuses and response !!
 
Last edited:

ekaputra

Member
KRN Ji,
Sorry have to disagree !
Not sure, if you read my thread on politics &I karma, you are on the wrong side of the moral divide !
No good can come from supporting parties that indulge in communal hated, lynchings and violence.

JK.
There is nothing scientific about Karma - though it's a laudable principle - a single word that connotes "do as you would be done by and be done by as you did". Probably Karma as one of the fundamental principles of our religion was a great embarrassment to the semitic faiths which taught that a person who did not worship God (of Abraham) was a sinner guaranteed to be thrown into the burning lake below

As an agnostic, I do not support lynchings or even forcing people (even Hindus, let alone non Hindus) to chant "Jai Shree Ram". I even dread phone calls from some of my (self righteous) relatives who will start with "Sai Ram" and will not continue till I return that greeting ("Sai Ram").

That said, many Hindus are not even aware of Muhammadan fanaticism (which continues to this day) and the dark ages of Muhammadan rule in India. When people like (late) Girish Karnad glorified Tipu Sultan as a great hero of Mysore, ignorant people (mostly Kannadiga) were only too ready to swallow (lock,stock and barrel) and digest his stories without reflecting for a moment that " he removed Kannada and introduced Persian as the court language, converted many temples to Muslim places of worship, forcibly converted people to Islam, slaughtered a large number of Mandyam Iyengars at Melkote and ...". Why didn't the Congress approved history books skip mention of all these while making much ado of Churchill's remark "the humiliating spectacle of this half naked fakir ... ".

Hindus should know their history and at least learn to be wary of Muslims - the growing Muslim population is a ticking time bomb and slogans like "Hindu Muslim Bhai Bhai" promoted by secular parties won't help!

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it!
 

Follow Tamil Brahmins on Social Media

Top