Indian Middle Class Economy

[krish44]

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Indian economy is deccelerating with growth slumping to 6.1 to 6.6 %.

Malls are with goods which very few buy.

Middle class is parking money in safe savings in deposits and gold.

India is a consumption lead economy. No one is buying any discretionary consumption goods .There are discounts galore on

sale.

Inflation inching up,Except very essential articles of consumption like food, provisions it is no for everything else.

Economic data gets fudged so that no one is believing in growth stories

There is a serious credibility crisis.

A well known indian economist says that we are fast getting into middle class trap like brazil or south africa

We may get into get into further lower growth inching towards zero in 4 or 5 years..

Poverty figures may increase. Upper middle class will become lower middle class. The top 10% who do maximum

consumption are shying away from market.

Export are dwindling.

Is it doomsday Soon?

Not exactly.

We may become 3-4% growth economy like in seventies and early eighties. More would be unemployed or under

employed,Female workforce may drop out and prefer to sit at home.We will happily plod along

 

[krish44]

What is it that top 10% of india who were supporting consumption doing differently now.

They have turned outwards and do abroad what they were doing in india.

They are having fancy holidays abroad, parking their children in top univ abroad again, Buy abroad instead of

india. They have deserted indian consumption goods.

Unless the poor states like bihar and UP look inwards, make living viable in their own states by giving them

employment , withdraw excess labour from farms making farming viable, put an end to migration to metro

cities in other parts of the country , they will remain poor cousins of other states and ill treated there.

The first priority for govt there ought to be labour intensive manufacturing and expansion of service sector to

absorb employable youth after some retraining.There needs to be political will at state level to do good for

people there.Otherwise only other states will use their labour for low level jobs and these will be bonded

labour in those states.In states like tamilnadu , one sees lakhs from poor northern states in low level

occupations while locals have a great time on freebies given to them by a generous welfare minded state govt.

 

[prasad1]

It was 1960 LIC staff used to protest against computers. They stopped progress for a few years. Labor intensive manufacturing is an oxymoron. That is the stupidity Trump keeps promising. Those days are gone.

There is no point in crying over the loss of wooden wheel smith jobs, they are not coming back. Productivity has improved, we have to live with it.

In this day of Robotics and AI we have to adapt and accept that some people are going to be on welfare for a long time.

The rich have to spend some money locally or live in walled cities.

 

[krish44]

India"s strength is its ever growing population.

Our welfare schemes are not good enough to feed our hungry millions more than once a day.

Malnutrition and poor healthcare is taking a toll.

Talking of Robotics and AI does not make much sense to them.

Recently gas connections were given to the poor so that they do not have to use coal.Laudable.

Now they realise that with increasing oil prices , the poor even with subsidy do not have money to buy refills of

gas.