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HC to pronounce verdict on disqualification of 18 MLAs

#1
The verdict may likely to have bearing on the stability of the AIADMK Government

There may be fresh political squabbles and legal battles...


Madras HC to pronounce verdict on disqualification of 18 MLAs: 3 likely scenarios


Whichever scenario plays out in the Madras High Court, what’s certain is that the ‘losing’ side will in all likelihood challenge the verdict in the Supreme Court.

Excerpts:


What happens next


Multiple scenarios can play out based on the outcome of the Madras High Court’s verdict.

Scenario 1


If the HC upholds the disqualification of the MLAs, then Tamil Nadu will witness bye-polls to the 18 constituencies.

The outcome of the polls could decide the fate of the EPS government, which is sitting on a wafer-thin majority, with 114 MLAs.
The DMK and its allies have 98 legislators. If DMK sweeps the bye-elections, it could bring down the AIADMK government. Stalin, however, will be just short of the magic figure of 117. What happens next is anybody’s guess.

If the AIADMK, however, manages to retain most seats, EPS and his Deputy O Panneerselvam are looking at a comfortable tenure until 2021.

Scenario 2


If the HC quashes the disqualification of the 18 MLAs, then EPS may have to prove his majority in the floor of the Assembly. If the 18 MLAs, who had pledged loyalty to Dhinakaran, vote against EPS, they could bring down his government, at the risk of being disqualified yet again.

However, the 18 MLAs could also possibly force a regime change. Prior to their disqualification in September, the names of a number of CM alternatives were doing the rounds. Could Tami Nadu see a Dalit CM as proposed by Sasikala’s brother Dhivaharan? Or has the Mannargudi feud between Dhivaharan and Dhinakaran scotched the possibility of P Dhanapal in the CM’s chair?

Scenario 3


If the first bench comprising of Chief Justice Indira Banerjee and Justice M Sundar, however, deliver a split verdict, it will buy EPS and co more time. The case will then be referred to a third judge.

Whichever scenario plays out in the Madras High Court, what’s certain is that the ‘losing’ side will in all likelihood challenge the verdict in the Supreme Court.

Read more at: https://www.thenewsminute.com/artic...ualification-18-mlas-3-likely-scenarios-83000
 
#2
A temporary relief for the time-being.

[h=1]Relief for EPS-OPS: Madras HC delivers split verdict on 18 MLAs disqualification[/h]
The 18 AIADMK MLAs disqualification case will now be referred to a third judge, buying the EPS government more time in office.

Excerpts:

The first bench of the High Court led by Chief Justice Indira Banerjee and Justice M Sundar came out with differing judgements. While CJ Banerjee upheld the disqualification of the 18 AIADMK MLAs, Justice Sundar quashed the disqualification order by the Speaker.

Read more at: https://www.thenewsminute.com/artic...-split-verdict-18-mlas-disqualification-83035
 
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