• Welcome to Tamil Brahmins forums.

    You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our Free Brahmin Community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!

    If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact contact us.

Dynasty Politics is an absolute MUST and a critical life saver for India and the world

OP
OP
J

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Comparison to Venezuela is close to absurd. Look at the economic indicator and outlook for growth.

Quite the contrary, not believing a highly qualified and "on the job" deputy governor that too after the dramatic ILFS and IDBI collapse, not to forget the massive banks NPA is close to absolute stupidity.

Thanks to the media and IMF dire warnings, which stopped the govt from raiding the RBI reserves. They were forced to appoint the panel led by Bimal Jalan to study on the reserves.
 
OP
OP
J

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Much pressure on RBI to part with reserves ahead of elections

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/67744899.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...s-ahead-of-elections/articleshow/67744899.cms

Mumbai: With the code of conduct for the upcoming general election likely to kick in during the period between late February and early March, intense pressure is being mounted on the RBI and its new Governor Shaktikanta Das to part with a portion of its profits to enable government spending on schemes that would, in turn, help garner voter support.

According to sources here, the government's demands on the Reserve Bank India come in the face of a balooning fiscal deficit and the need to boost the economy year.

With GST collections this year regularly falling short of the monthly target of Rs 1 lakh crore, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report last week said the Centre is likely breach the fiscal deficit target once again by 40 basis points for 2018-19, and raise the target for the next fiscal to 3.5 per cent.

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/67744899.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
 
OP
OP
J

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Come on guys. You may want to consider giving up your valiant efforts to save this govt.

Unfortunately it is a disaster for them on every count. It is not media narrative that ILFS dramatically defaulted in October sending shock waves, followed by IDBI. Then the banks merger to save them from massive debt. Not to forget the banks recapitalisation. Not to forget..

LOL
 

indianassault

Active member
Much pressure on RBI to part with reserves ahead of elections

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/67744899.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...s-ahead-of-elections/articleshow/67744899.cms

Mumbai: With the code of conduct for the upcoming general election likely to kick in during the period between late February and early March, intense pressure is being mounted on the RBI and its new Governor Shaktikanta Das to part with a portion of its profits to enable government spending on schemes that would, in turn, help garner voter support.

According to sources here, the government's demands on the Reserve Bank India come in the face of a balooning fiscal deficit and the need to boost the economy year.

With GST collections this year regularly falling short of the monthly target of Rs 1 lakh crore, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report last week said the Centre is likely breach the fiscal deficit target once again by 40 basis points for 2018-19, and raise the target for the next fiscal to 3.5 per cent.

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/67744899.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Is he that Shaktikanta Das from Ramana movie?? :D

Fiscal deficit is under pressure due to the weak rupee. Otherwise its still ooking good. The currency manipulation is a big scam in itself.
 

smg

Member
India’s high fiscal deficit a cause for concern, says IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath

https://scroll.in/latest/910358/ind...oncern-says-imf-chief-economist-gita-gopinath

She added that GST revenues, which were lower than expected, affected the fiscal position.

Now, the link you sent about Gita Gopinath. There is a guy, Prof. R. Vaidyanathan and he has come up with interesting terminology,

Migratory birds – mostly the economists living in North-Eastern part of US/eastern cost, because winter there is severe and some Indians take a break
BBB – Big Bindi Brigade
POTA – Pulled Out of Thin Air
WAR – Wisdom After Retirement
Coconuts – Brown outside and white inside
Etc

Anyway, He calls these people migratory birds because they come up with these opinions when it snows in US! Now its snowing btw and she made a comment. Did you know that the outgoing IMF chief has praised GST and Modi government’s growth rate in December?

https://www.livemint.com/Politics/C...s-been-very-solid-under-Modi-govt-IMF-Ch.html

Just so you know, she is an advisor to Pinarayi Vijayan. I don’t know what she means. Its much lower than UPA. I think its around 3.5 - 4 % of GDP. That’s lower than expected fiscal deficit of US, which is predicted to be around 4.7 % of its GDP. May be she should worry about that. Infact Boston is closer to DC than Nayi Dilli. I don’t do economics, I do natural science. But I am happy to learn.

Also, if you are interested


Here is a complete playlist

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyATNyZR_RtVfLvBLuP0BCKZqktgPRu7L

His talks are wonderful.
 

indianassault

Active member
India’s high fiscal deficit a cause for concern, says IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath

https://scroll.in/latest/910358/ind...oncern-says-imf-chief-economist-gita-gopinath

She added that GST revenues, which were lower than expected, affected the fiscal position.

This is selective reporting and what you want people to hear. Do you the Fiscal deficit was 4.2% in 2014 and now it has come down to 3.5% ? And this has helped greatly in paying back the debts owed. And I also see a steep fall in rupee, because that puts a strain in the buying power . The truth is that fiscal deficit is lowering, which the sickular people fail to see.
 
There is something called anti incumbency. Wonder why dmk or admk almost never held power in successful elections?

If you take the last 72 years the best of them were only a couple of years led by Narasimha Rao, Vajpayee and now. You ruled for 60 years and dismiss Achhe din never arrived in 4 years. A bad Modi government is better than a Good congress government any day.
Any time.
 

indianassault

Active member
This is selective reporting and what you want people to hear. Do you the Fiscal deficit was 4.2% in 2014 and now it has come down to 3.5% ? And this has helped greatly in paying back the debts owed. And I also see a steep fall in rupee, because that puts a strain in the buying power . The truth is that fiscal deficit is lowering, which the sickular people fail to see.
Like the sickular media, My Jaykay has no answer to facts.
 

Vaagmi

Well-known member
Quite the contrary, not believing a highly qualified and "on the job" deputy governor that too after the dramatic ILFS and IDBI collapse, not to forget the massive banks NPA is close to absolute stupidity.

Thanks to the media and IMF dire warnings, which stopped the govt from raiding the RBI reserves. They were forced to appoint the panel led by Bimal Jalan to study on the reserves.
During Congress rule the"telephone banking" was prevalent and the banks- their boards and CEOs were under pressure and the loans sanctioned have turned NPAs in no time. Take every NPA one by one and analyse when it was sanctioned, the reasons for its ending up as a NPA here in this forum. We can have a informed debate.

Congress and congress alone is answerable for the mess.
 

Vaagmi

Well-known member
Much pressure on RBI to part with reserves ahead of elections

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/67744899.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...s-ahead-of-elections/articleshow/67744899.cms

Mumbai: With the code of conduct for the upcoming general election likely to kick in during the period between late February and early March, intense pressure is being mounted on the RBI and its new Governor Shaktikanta Das to part with a portion of its profits to enable government spending on schemes that would, in turn, help garner voter support.

According to sources here, the government's demands on the Reserve Bank India come in the face of a balooning fiscal deficit and the need to boost the economy year.

With GST collections this year regularly falling short of the monthly target of Rs 1 lakh crore, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report last week said the Centre is likely breach the fiscal deficit target once again by 40 basis points for 2018-19, and raise the target for the next fiscal to 3.5 per cent.

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/67744899.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Please discuss first what for reserves are created. That will lead you to the truth.

Are you aware that Cogress Govt. once had to liquidate the gold reserves held by RBI to tide over an emergency cash crunch? They lifted gold to London by special chartered flights to meet a grave situation in which India was about to default on its international commitments backed by its sovereign guarantee.

Please refresh your memory.
 
OP
OP
J

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Mr. Vaagmi Ji,

I am more than happy to answer any and all questions and substantiate any and all of my earlier posts. However I am not sure, in this charged atmosphere in the country and in this forum, it will be of any help. People have formed strong opinions and are not willing to listen to others.

1. NPA crisis - Sure a lot of loans given in congress era went kaput now. Agreed - Many of them are a result of corrupt practices. However my view and a lot of economists view is that the twin policies of demonetisation and GST caused this crisis. Now, we can argue that without these 2 policies, this would have exploded in the future, possible but more conjecture at this time. I have not studied this scenario, so cannot comment either way.

Demonetisation and GST depressed a lot of businesses by all accounts which led to massive loan default leading to the NPA crisis. Now I totally understand if you don't agree with this.

2. Reserves - I remember the economic mess, the mortgage of the gold and the subsequent reforms all too well. Having said that, my view and many economists is that we would in al probability not needed to touch the reserves without the demo and GST.

3. Banks Crisis -

Now post demo, Urijit Patel and Viral Acharya tightened the pca norms from Apr 2017 till his exit. They directed all banks to stop any and all lending immediately despite continued protests from the govt.

My view, this singular and hard stop action while extreme saved our banks and all of our deposits. If banks had collapsed, the country would have descended into rioting.

And Urijit also stubbornly refused to use the reserves to fund the bank recapitalisation and forced the govt to use its money. Another reason why govt went furiously after them as they did.

See, the risk of reducing the reserves dramatically could have potentiallyled to sovereign derating by Fitch and others agencies.

Most importatnly, while we can criticise the extreme action of Urijit and Viral, remember they were dealing alone with the Lehman parallel of ILFS collapse. In the USA, a pan country of leading economists and bankers handled the Great Recession.

Here the fallout between govt and RBI led to the total isolation of Urijit and team.

At the end, in my considered opinion, I say hats off to Urijit and Viral who held the banks from further shocks. The downside is the NBfcs took a massive hit.

And govt is pushing the RBI to use the reserves to support the NBfcs. I will wait for Bimal Jalans report before I comment.

JK.
 
OP
OP
J

Jaykay767

Well-known member
On the fiscal deficit -

Background - Upa got caught in the sudden downdraft of the sky high oil prices of $140'per barrell. Manmohan and Chidambaram handled this badly by going for oil bonds to subsidise instead of increasing the fuel prices and reduce other govt spending. That's how the fiscal deficit shot up and with the threat of a sovereign derating, they agreed to a plan to bring it down from 6.1 to 3.3 and then if I remember to 2.5 %.

Current govt -
It is not correct to say, they did better than upa. They just had no choice but to stick to the deficit reduction plan - this is the red line.

And, If the oil prices shoot up, then the fiscal deficit will hit the red lining immediately. That's how tight our fiscal situation is.

JK.
 

Vaagmi

Well-known member
Mr. Vaagmi Ji,

I am more than happy to answer any and all questions and substantiate any and all of my earlier posts. However I am not sure, in this charged atmosphere in the country and in this forum, it will be of any help. People have formed strong opinions and are not willing to listen to others.

1. NPA crisis - Sure a lot of loans given in congress era went kaput now. Agreed - Many of them are a result of corrupt practices. However my view and a lot of economists view is that the twin policies of demonetisation and GST caused this crisis. Now, we can argue that without these 2 policies, this would have exploded in the future, possible but more conjecture at this time. I have not studied this scenario, so cannot comment either way.

Please study deeply and then you will understand the reality. Demonetisation and GST are not so bad as is made out. They were right decisions taken at the right time. There were some hiccups and they are unavoidable when such a drastic solution is implemented in such a large country/economy.

Demonetisation and GST depressed a lot of businesses by all accounts which led to massive loan default leading to the NPA crisis. Now I totally understand if you don't agree with this.

NPA does not become NPA in just a jiffy. The NPAs that the banks have accumulated in their balance sheets were all accumulated over a period of time when reckless lending was done on cue and on orders from politicians. BJP was not responsible for these assets becoming Non-performing ones. Only because of the compelling necessity to follow internationally accepted Basle norms the cat was out of the bag. Otherwise everyone including RBI would have been happy with the certificate of the Banks that their assets were all performing while in fact they might be NPAs. Before Basle there were no common quantitative and qualitative norms and definitions for NPAs. While world over, other countries had a set of standard norms for classification of assets by Banks, in India we were largely going by qualitative certificates of Banks and their acceptance by auditors and RBI. Only when India failed to bag a few high value contracts in the international market for the reason that the guarantees and Letters of credit offered by Indian Banks participating in the bidding were not acceptable to the participants, we woke up and took a hard look at the situation and Basle also came about. So NPA has nothing to do with GST or Demonetisation. No business in India came to a standstill because of these two important and necessary but hard economic measures. Politicians may say anything and they generally address their wisecracks to ill informed and committed sections of public. But the audience here in this TB forum is different.

2. Reserves - I remember the economic mess, the mortgage of the gold and the subsequent reforms all too well. Having said that, my view and many economists is that we would in al probability not needed to touch the reserves without the demo and GST.

I am sure you are aware that Finance Ministers world over use deleberate deficit in their budgets as an impetus for growth of production both agricultural and industrial. Only it has to be reasonable and proportionate to the total size of the economy. So deficit is not a four letter word to be shunned. If a finance minister wants to manage his deficit by touching the accumulated reserve there is nothing wrong in that. Reserves are built over a period of time only to be used in emergencies to manage the economy. Reserves are not holy cows. While I have nothing to say about the view of the Fin Min that the reserve needs to be touched and the counter view of the RBI that it should not be touched, I just want to mention that it (touching the reserve) is not blasphemy. There was no need to make a splash of the difference between two arms of the Government in the public domain giving scope for all Tom Dick and Harry to loud mouth their views asking for the head of the Minister on their table. You may differ with me but I think we have a knack of overdoing everything in this country in politics.

3. Banks Crisis -

Now post demo, Urijit Patel and Viral Acharya tightened the pca norms from Apr 2017 till his exit. They directed all banks to stop any and all lending immediately despite continued protests from the govt.
My view, this singular and hard stop action while extreme saved our banks and all of our deposits. If banks had collapsed, the country would have descended into rioting.
And Urijit also stubbornly refused to use the reserves to fund the bank recapitalisation and forced the govt to use its money. Another reason why govt went furiously after them as they did.

It is not such a simplistic model that we are dealing with here. There can never be a full stop to lending because lending is more complicated than what it appears to be. I am not going into the details here as they are all highly technical. If such a stop order indeed was issued it would have resulted in allround chaos and riots. Since T.T.Krishnamachary's time we are used to deficit financing and the Government would have just managed to recapitalize the banks anyway. Mr Patel had his reasons which he would have certainly told Fin Min and it is just that the two did not agree.

See, the risk of reducing the reserves dramatically could have potentiallyled to sovereign derating by Fitch and others agencies.

The rating is done on the basis of several factors.

At the end, in my considered opinion, I say hats off to Urijit and Viral who held the banks from further shocks. The downside is the NBfcs took a massive hit.

I think Mr Patel had a view which clashed with that of Fin Min. Both had a right to have their views. Ultimately Fin Min view prevailed because it is Fin Min. The tail does not turn the dog. It is the other way round because it is the given situation.

And govt is pushing the RBI to use the reserves to support the NBfcs. I will wait for Bimal Jalans report before I comment.

This is news to me.

JK.

My reply is in blue.
 

smg

Member
There is something called misery index, its the sum of unemployment rate and inflation. The reason why you shouldn't blame the government is because Rajan kept increasing the interest rate to reduce inflation but that increased the unemployment. And the misery index didn't change. Most of these unfortunate people, if the data is true, are due to the fact that industries started closing because of high interest rate. That happened before demonetization. You should give due credits where its due to Dr. Swamy who understood this. There is a difference between finance and economics. He is from US, in US the interest rates are very low. You may raise it and still be okay with that. People should know the truth. You can't blame Modi for everything. You should hold Mr Jaitley responsible for this. Fortunately, this guy wasn't allowed to do another term. You should thank Modi because we would have been in a serious mess.

About the fiscal deficit. Most of the European countries don't follow this 3.5 % rule. Where does this number come from? If its beneficial for the country like building infrastructure, road and rail network where you ship goods to harbor and air cargo and increase the export then why follow the rules? Because ultimately it is going help the economy.

If demonetization was a complete failure then how did yogi sweep the poll? BJP swept the poll, literally. The change in seats in UP was 278. The total number of seats in my state, Karnataka is 224. If there are people who really got hurt then that's middle class women, my mom is one of them because she used to keep her savings in jar, between the clothes inside the cupboard etc because that's where we don't go and look! I wasn't there at that time but my dad had to go to the bank and get it exchanged. He didn't complain, he was actually happy!

Also I earlier post some links to why dynasty is bad, but it got lost in the sands of time!
 
OP
OP
J

Jaykay767

Well-known member
Hi Smg,
Few points -

1. The reason Raghuram Rajan increased rates was to avoid overheating the Indian economy which was booming during the Manmohan era and continued till before the demonetisation. so the decision is correct.

2. Demonetisation - was a large draconian monetary shock ( verbatim from our Aravind Subramaniam). Hence to assume it did not cause disruption is not correct. The way to see demonetisation is like an "Avalanche". It slowly snowballed into a massive contagion. That's why BJP won the UP polls and subsequently loss to the series of bypolls and then the 3 core Hindi heartland states.

You need to study the impact to businesses and rural sector after demonetisation and similarly GST. Individuals had zero to minimal impact in urban areas.

3. On fiscal deficit - you are right, we have boxed ourselves by saying we need to meet the 3.5%. But that is bad planning by upa and then continued into the nda regime.

JK
 
OP
OP
J

Jaykay767

Well-known member
The way to look at demonetisation is it induced a massive recessionary impact to Indian economy.

In any recession, businesses will close down and hence jobs will be lost. In the beginning the businesses will weather the downturn, but as this continued, it led to massive contagion.
 
OP
OP
J

Jaykay767

Well-known member
There is a paper which looks at the dynastic politics and its economic impacts in India in a mathematical perspective

“Like Father, Like Son? How Political Dynasties Affect Economic Development”

Maybe you should read it. They say and I quote, “dynasts may behave more like “stationary bandits”, “People won’t be able to elect a talented leader”, these are just a few excerpts. Their conclusion is not something that agrees with what you are claiming.

Another example is Philippines, in a paper written by Ronald U. Mendoza et. al., concluded that political dynasties are responsible for poverty in Philippines.

Politics in USA is complicated. Corruption is not evident at lower levels. But things become interesting as you go up the ladder. Clinton was defeated because most people who would have voted for Bernie Sanders didn’t vote for her.

You mentioned Kennedy family, JFK served in US navy, if Im not wrong. I think one of his brothers was KIA during WW2. Queen Elizabeth has three sons. All three have served in the military. Not as honorary Lt Col like Dhoni, but as foot soldiers. One of them has fought Falkland war (heard of it?). Can you name a few heirs to the Indian political dynasties who have served in the military? How many of them are artists? What has Priyanka Gandhi achieved so far?

I know that Supriya Sule (maybe a possible heir to NCP?) has achieved something impossible. Documents show that she has made 60Cr Rs out of 9 acre land. Now that’s an accomplishment :D:D:D ! Poor Israelis should learn from her!!

And btw you mentioned BS Raghavendra, he won from my district – twice! The two things that he did which I remember are - he constructed a lot of bus stops with his picture on it (I think it was Belur Gopalkrishna who called him bus stand Raghu! Because the only thing he does is that he constructs a lot of bus stops, whether there are sufficient number of busses is another question) and he celebrates his birthday in Shivamogga city, because of which the roads are all blocked. I once went 15-30 min late to my exam, don’t remember exactly. That’s the only time I had gone late to an exam. So, I don’t like him. :p

Hi Smg,
Yep, this got lost in the multiple posts,
All of us need to look at political families like any other profession. Take business families, they have a inbred tradition, tales, stories, legends of huge business success. The kids grow listening to this and they are inspired to better the or ions generation.

Similarly, political families over time, build a strong tradition of democracy, tolerance, colaboration, and building consensus and managing power. They see their fathers and mothers handling power and it comes to them naturally. On the other hand, people who do not have political family background, will find it difficult to manage power.

if we close our eyes to political dynasts saying it has to be bad, then we miss out the positives.

JK
 
Top
Thank you for visiting TamilBrahmins.com

You seem to have an Ad Blocker on.

We depend on advertising to keep our content free for you. Please consider whitelisting us in your ad blocker so that we can continue to provide the content you have come here to enjoy.

Alternatively, consider upgrading your account to enjoy an ad-free experience along with numerous other benefits. To upgrade your account, please visit the account upgrades page

You can also donate financially if you can. Please Click Here on how you can do that.

I've Disabled AdBlock    No Thanks