First off I am totally against BJP for its communal and divisive agenda. It has absolutely no place in a progressive country.
Having said that lets analyse this further.
Modi and BJP came on a singular development agenda never before seen in our history.
So having come on such strong development agenda, how could they have messed up the economy and taken the country backwards ?
I mean even if they didnt deliver on sky high promises people would not have bothered. They instead destroyed large swathes of the informal economy and pushed our farmers and traders into deep distress and poverty. Instead of "acche din" it is "bure din" for our people !!!
Shocking isn't it!! So what went wrong ?
It cannot be incompetence as our ministers historically have been poorly educated with very little knowledge on governance.
Our bureaucrats led by IAS have been in the forefront of all decisions both good and bad policies. So they have held forte for all the political administrations from day 1. I absolutely do not believe that the bureaucrats faltered as we are dealing with basic economics not some advanced derivatives.
Most importantly it is not.possible for the political leaders to come up with detailed policies and ask the burecrats to implement. Since they have always depended on the bureaucrats to draft them even if the ideas came from the political class.
So the big question is how did they go ahead with demonerisation and gst when the entire country opposed it ??
Most economists openly said dont do it, it will bring down the economy. And the shock is that they pushed out a stalwart RBI governor Raghuram Rajan when he opposed it. Anyone with economic background would have seen this disaster coming.
Imagine if any of us were to do it, we would have backed out under such overwhelming opposition.
So did Modi push it forward single handedly? Or did arun jaitley push this bill ?
I am sure someone with inside track will write the true story some day.
In the meanwhile my outside assessment -
Only possible explanation - bureaucrats strongly supported this decision and gave sufficient confidence to the political leaders.
I mean as a CEO I will go ahead with controversial decisions if my team has worked on the detailing and convinces me that the decision is right in the long term
But why would bureaucrats set up this new govt for such monumental failure?? And this will surely cost them the 2019 elections.
So we need to go back to the initial days of this govt.
BJP won all the 7 loksabha seats in Delhi in 2014. And when they took power they were very tough on the bureaucrats by all media accounts. They pushed them to come by 9 am to office etc...show performance reports etc.. BJP ministers; did not understand governance and they went overboard.
They clearly alienated the entire Delhi bureacrazy and lost the assembly elections by 67 - 3 held in 4 to 5 months of the loksabha elections. How can you win by a massive landslide of 7 out of 7 seats and then lose 67 to 3 in just under 6 months?. Obviously all bureaucrats, their families and other corrupt supporters ganged up and voted against them.
In the above context it is easy to say - these bureaucrats ( I call them bandicoots..lol) with a vengeance pushed the disastrous demonerisation bill and convinced the political leaders saying we have been in the govt for 40+ yrs exp and we know better than Raghuram Rajan who is here for 3 yrs. And hours and hours of debates on this decision
This is the only way this govt could have gone ahead against such monumental opposition!!
Not only they convinced on implementing a disastrous policy, they ensured they were totally unprepared. They did not even print enough new notes to.replace the old notes leading to a massive nation wide crisis. I mean why the hell would you not print enough notes? What is the risk in this? Any way the printing presses know the new notes as coming as they have printed large nos.
One can understand ATMs going dry as all banks will have to be notified in advance. But why were the central banks not given the full replacement cash reserve?
On top of this they came up with 2000 note instead of 1000 note replacement. This lead to massive problems as people just could not exchange 2000 note, it was very large denomination.
Just as the economy was trying to recover from the demon disaster, they convinced the political leadership to implement GST saying economy will boom. Another unprepared and disastrous implementation.
Until the GST is reversed like in Malaysia, this economy will not recover. Govt will not reverse as it will be a open ack. a huge political and economic failure.
To me this parallels the legendary chanakyan rout of the Nandas after they insulted him.
In this mess of this politics a vibrant economy was destroyed. And a govt that came on such mandate and once thought will rule for 25 yrs bringing unprecedented prosperity to Indians have bitten the dust !!
Most importantly it is a huge tragedy for the country and enormous suffering for our people.
Our country is truly cursed and our people suffer terrible fate year after year relentlessly. Just when we thought we were doing well and in 10 yrs we may even abolish poverty, a large majority of our people have been pushed into the abyss !!!!
Only God has to help our people!!!
Having said that lets analyse this further.
Modi and BJP came on a singular development agenda never before seen in our history.
So having come on such strong development agenda, how could they have messed up the economy and taken the country backwards ?
I mean even if they didnt deliver on sky high promises people would not have bothered. They instead destroyed large swathes of the informal economy and pushed our farmers and traders into deep distress and poverty. Instead of "acche din" it is "bure din" for our people !!!
Shocking isn't it!! So what went wrong ?
It cannot be incompetence as our ministers historically have been poorly educated with very little knowledge on governance.
Our bureaucrats led by IAS have been in the forefront of all decisions both good and bad policies. So they have held forte for all the political administrations from day 1. I absolutely do not believe that the bureaucrats faltered as we are dealing with basic economics not some advanced derivatives.
Most importantly it is not.possible for the political leaders to come up with detailed policies and ask the burecrats to implement. Since they have always depended on the bureaucrats to draft them even if the ideas came from the political class.
So the big question is how did they go ahead with demonerisation and gst when the entire country opposed it ??
Most economists openly said dont do it, it will bring down the economy. And the shock is that they pushed out a stalwart RBI governor Raghuram Rajan when he opposed it. Anyone with economic background would have seen this disaster coming.
Imagine if any of us were to do it, we would have backed out under such overwhelming opposition.
So did Modi push it forward single handedly? Or did arun jaitley push this bill ?
I am sure someone with inside track will write the true story some day.
In the meanwhile my outside assessment -
Only possible explanation - bureaucrats strongly supported this decision and gave sufficient confidence to the political leaders.
I mean as a CEO I will go ahead with controversial decisions if my team has worked on the detailing and convinces me that the decision is right in the long term
But why would bureaucrats set up this new govt for such monumental failure?? And this will surely cost them the 2019 elections.
So we need to go back to the initial days of this govt.
BJP won all the 7 loksabha seats in Delhi in 2014. And when they took power they were very tough on the bureaucrats by all media accounts. They pushed them to come by 9 am to office etc...show performance reports etc.. BJP ministers; did not understand governance and they went overboard.
They clearly alienated the entire Delhi bureacrazy and lost the assembly elections by 67 - 3 held in 4 to 5 months of the loksabha elections. How can you win by a massive landslide of 7 out of 7 seats and then lose 67 to 3 in just under 6 months?. Obviously all bureaucrats, their families and other corrupt supporters ganged up and voted against them.
In the above context it is easy to say - these bureaucrats ( I call them bandicoots..lol) with a vengeance pushed the disastrous demonerisation bill and convinced the political leaders saying we have been in the govt for 40+ yrs exp and we know better than Raghuram Rajan who is here for 3 yrs. And hours and hours of debates on this decision
This is the only way this govt could have gone ahead against such monumental opposition!!
Not only they convinced on implementing a disastrous policy, they ensured they were totally unprepared. They did not even print enough new notes to.replace the old notes leading to a massive nation wide crisis. I mean why the hell would you not print enough notes? What is the risk in this? Any way the printing presses know the new notes as coming as they have printed large nos.
One can understand ATMs going dry as all banks will have to be notified in advance. But why were the central banks not given the full replacement cash reserve?
On top of this they came up with 2000 note instead of 1000 note replacement. This lead to massive problems as people just could not exchange 2000 note, it was very large denomination.
Just as the economy was trying to recover from the demon disaster, they convinced the political leadership to implement GST saying economy will boom. Another unprepared and disastrous implementation.
Until the GST is reversed like in Malaysia, this economy will not recover. Govt will not reverse as it will be a open ack. a huge political and economic failure.
To me this parallels the legendary chanakyan rout of the Nandas after they insulted him.
In this mess of this politics a vibrant economy was destroyed. And a govt that came on such mandate and once thought will rule for 25 yrs bringing unprecedented prosperity to Indians have bitten the dust !!
Most importantly it is a huge tragedy for the country and enormous suffering for our people.
Our country is truly cursed and our people suffer terrible fate year after year relentlessly. Just when we thought we were doing well and in 10 yrs we may even abolish poverty, a large majority of our people have been pushed into the abyss !!!!
Only God has to help our people!!!
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