I could not find a single person against demonetisation, I got a lot of flak
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    I could not find a single person against demonetisation, I got a lot of flak


    0 Not allowed!
    There are many views pro and opposing demonization..
    This one seems different as it presents things in a balanced manner......




    'I could not find a single person against demonetisation, I got a lot of flak for reporting this fact': Jay Panda
    Firstpost • Nov 10, 2017 22:17 IST

    By Baijayant Panda

    In my constituency, I found it hard to find a single person against demonetisation

    In Indian politics, I come from a non political family and even after 17 and a half years in Parliament - this is my fourth term, I see myself as an outsider. Most of my colleagues are status quoists. There are those that think outside the box but the vast majority have got to where they have got because of the system, not despite it. There are few accidents like me and I think it is a bounden duty for those of us who were unintended politicians to push the boundaries. Everyone has been focused on the aftermath of demonetisation. I have been trolled, I have been attacked, I have been called all kinds of names. A month after demonetisation, and I told you, I spend 12 days on average every month in my constituency. Despite the inconvenience and the disruption of normal life, I found it hard to find a single person against it, I found no one. They were wildly enthusiastic and when I reported this fact, I faced a lot of flak. It was considered ridiculous to say that people could be enthusiastic about something like this but they were.

    Jay Panda at Columbia University in the city of New York/ Pic by Nikhila Natarajan
    Jay Panda at Columbia University in the city of New York/ Pic by Nikhila Natarajan

    The shopkeeper who was finally able to buy land at fair price, post demonetisation

    The impact of the black economy affects people. I had a small shopkeeper tell me that for several years, he was trying to buy a small plot of land to keep as a wedding gift for his 5 year old daughter some 20 years later. And every year when he thought he had enough money, he was short by 20 or 30 per cent because the prices had gone up. He said it was because corrupt officials, politicians and contractors used to put all their money in gold and land and he simply could not compete with them. A month into demonetisation, I asked him if it made a difference. He said of course yes. He used a phrase - the supply and demand of land has changed. Instead of me running after them, they are running after me. They are offering me last year’s prices and I’m insisting on the year before’s. Yes, of course it has hit the real estate sector and it has also hit the for profit education sector - especially the diploma mills where a large percentage of these engineers who can’t get a job are churned out. That has changed. After the Uttar Pradesh elections a lot of people accepted, grudgingly, that politically demonetisation may have been successful but economically a disaster. I don’t think so. It’s a one time shock to the system. It has hit black money. What was unanticipated is that all the currency in circulation did come back to the banks. If you remember, during those few weeks, the government kept on changing the rules. That got a lot of criticism but it was the right thing to do. These were agents, who were offering, for a fee, of course to use the dormant accounts of many poor people to put money back. The point is how much of it is accessible to those people again because the rules did change because of KYC norms. And you’re beginning to see the aftermath of that with the action against shell companies. The only debate was whether it would take a couple of quarters or a couple of years to get back on track. The hypocrisy is in saying that yes the economy is affected but black money has not been affected. That does not add up.

    This is the least bad version of a GST that would have passed

    GST is a different animal. It is not a one time shock to the system. It is a sustaining improvement to the system. The biggest benefit in creating a single market for the first time is almost incalculable. It is a paradigm shift. This country (US) got the Inter State Commerce Act many decades after the US became a republic. It is the same kind of transformational effect that GST will have in India. But GST is not ideal. It is far from ideal. It is complicated. Four sets of documentation, all those different slabs, many different sub slabs. There are many different rates for the kinds of sweets in a sweet shop. This is the product of a give and take system in the world’s largest democracy. I describe it thus: This in my opinion is the least bad version of a GST that would have passed. I was privy to behind the scenes negotiation, cajoling and a little bit of arm twisting. Any other version would have been worse. We often make the perfect ( version of anything) the enemy of the good. With all its complications, don’t forget that it replaced 17 different taxes in different parts of the country. The troubles are much more not for those who pay taxes but for those who never paid taxes to begin with.

    The building blocks are in place for India’s economic and political tipping point. Good economics has been leading to re-election rather than traditional anti incumbency

    I spend about 12 days on average every month in my constituency. That’s at the very high end of the spectrum among my colleagues. Each of our 543 constituencies in the Lok Sabha is the size of a small European country. Mine is about somewhere between Estonia and Slovenia and yet they don’t have the same kind of fiscal or administrative authority.
    If you look at the 2 billion plus population nations in the world, China and India had similar per capita profiles about 40 years ago. But in these four decades, their trajectories have been very different and the Chinese economy is today five times that of the Indian economy. And that despite India not having been exactly a slouch, particularly in the last two decades. Now China can do things differently. They can step on the gas from the word go and keep the pedal on the floor for the next three decades as they have done. India cannot do that. We are very large and very diverse. I see the Indian journey as a long process of putting building blocks in place and then comes a tipping point. There are no guarantees of course. We have had economic liberalisation for a little more than a quarter century. This has changed the trajectory of the Indian growth story. But despite that, when Professor Bhagwati and Panagariya’s 2013 book ( Why Growth Matters) was written, it was seminal and important because we were debating - merely 25 years into liberalisation - we used to have these long and painful debates in Parliament about whether growth is important ! You can argue whether growth is sufficient but to argue whether growth is important…Finance Minister after Finance Minister had to justify why growth mattered. This was 22 years after 1991. Similarly, 23 years after 1991 was when the emblem of the command economy the Planning Commission was done away with. It has happened because these building blocks are in place. I posit that 2014 was the first time that a winning candidate made a pitch to get elected on the basis of economic reforms and good governnance. You’ve had many campaigns that have run on the price of onions and the threat from across the border. But to actually put it into phrases like minimum government, maximum governance and to hold out the hope that there would be dramatic economic reform which was already happening at the state level. Even 15 years ago, the data was already showing that good economics has been leading to re-election rather than the traditional anti incumbency we have seen in Indian politics.


    Modi was supposed to be this Rube from Hicktown…instead we got a foreign policy PM

    This present government has a lot to do with the economic and political tipping points of India. When this Prime Minister took office, he surprised a lot of people by turning out to be a foreign policy prime minister. If you went by the Indian media’s general characterisation of him, he was a Rube from Hicktown. Yet it turned out that, unbeknownst to many people, over the decades, he had spent a lot of time in this country (US), in China, in Japan besides his more than a dozen years as the head of a large state (Gujarat). That was supposed to be his metier when he became the Prime Minister but right off the start, he was a foreign policy Prime Minister and a very ambitious one. I don’t think we’ve seen this kind of thrust on foreign policy since Pandit Nehru’s times. This is despite three Prime Ministers since that time who had already served as foreign ministers. This was at a time when India’s sheen had been taken off and I think he has been successful in repositioning India. The response is overwhelming from policy makers and the average cab driver.

    People who can wax eloquent about the US Senate’s filibuster rules don’t seem to understand that without a majority in the Rajya Sabha, you cannot pass bills

    Economically, from 2014 onwards, there was a lot of debate in India as to what would be the next big reform in India. There was a lot of criticism initially that this government was not getting down to economic reforms. It’s ironic because within the first three or four months, this Prime Minister made a risky reach. He tried to undo the land acquisition act, which has been considered by many to be a major bottleneck to investment and economic growth. It turned out that if everything worked like clockwork, it would take 55 months for any land to be acquired by any investor. And nothing works like clockwork. It was an ambitious reach and there were those ordinances because the Bill couldn’t be passed. He (Modi) had to step back because it became a wedge issue that got the entire Opposition to align. Now I find it amazing that people don’t understand the simple arithmetic of political capital in India. People who can wax eloquent about the US Senate’s filibuster rules don’t seem to understand that without a majority in the Rajya Sabha, you cannot pass bills. And even if you have a majority, even then you have to carry your party. Since then, many baby steps have been taken. As Amitabh (Kant) pointed out, at least 1200 regulations have been phased out.

    This is the (lightly edited) text of Jay Panda's 40 minute speech at Columbia University titled "India's economic and political tipping point". Panda spoke on demonetisation, GST, the arithmetic of political capital, the common misinterpretation of Modi’s strengths and the building blocks for an economy to reach critical mass. Reporting, photo and video by Firstpost's Nikhila Natarajan

    Reporter's note, by Nikhila Natarajan in New York: The Bhisma Pitamah of right wing economists Jagdish Bhagwati who openly backed Narendra Modi’s candidacy for Prime Minister in 2014 and has given demonetisation his unambiguous thumbs up hailed Member of Parliament Baijayant ‘Jay’ Panda as an “amazingly competent person” who is Prime Minister material, at Columbia University in New York City.

    “Many of us hope that one day you will be the Indian Prime Minister. He (Jay Panda) is an amazingly competent man, taking great interest in the issues of the day,” Bhagwati, one of the most respected trade theorists of his generation, said.

    Jay Panda is a four-time Member of Parliament from Kendrapara constituency in Odisha and a founding member of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) party - Odisha’s ruling party. Panda is an early investor among his peers on the international speaking circuit.

    Bhagwati introduced Jay Panda to a select audience of about 100 economists gathered for a Festschrift at Columbia University in honour of Arvind Panagariya, who, until recently, was Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog.

    Known to be addicted to witticisms he picked up in Cambridge of the 1950s, Bhagwati poked fun at government processes and shone a light on why he is cheering Panda on for India’s top job in the future: “Like those who live in the US know that executive action is a big thing here because you can’t get things through the Congress. The trouble with that is because it is easier to impose, it is also easier to revoke. But way back I asked Jay about it and he pointed out how you can renew ordinances again and again. If you can do that, it undermines the legitimacy of the Congress or (Indian) Parliament and so we must worry about it. Jay Panda was the first person who drew my attention to this, the same thing is happening in France. Today this is a big, big issue. I am particularly grateful to Jay for pointing this out early in the game. To find politicians who are interested in the issues is not easy. Most of them get tied up in a variety of issues like getting re-elected and so on. Jay, however, has managed to retain his intellectual curiosity,” Bhagwati, renowned for his acerbic sideswipes of fellow academics, said in praise of Jay Panda.

    http://www.firstpost.com/india/i-cou...03833.html/amp
    नाभुक्तं क्षीयते कर्म कल्प कोटि शतैरपि।
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    0 Not allowed!
    Just a satirical commentary on the post.
    Maybe Mr. Jay Panda's circle of people is limited to Modi Bhakts.
    It is like saying that I went to Mecca for Haj and could not find a single non-believer.
    That will be true.


    So, go expand your circle, or read up on it, Even on Tamil Brahmin site.
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    'No real data'

    Economists have questioned the government's claims.

    "We have no real data on whether the tax base has actually expanded beyond the trend increase that was already occurring before the move," said Jayati Ghosh, professor of economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.


    "There are many areas and parts of the economy that have still not recovered even to pre-demonetisation levels of activity," she said.

    Reetika Khera, an economist also based in New Delhi, said the government was not clear about what it wanted to achieve.

    "Whether it was a measure against corruption, or to expand the tax base, or to increase digitisation by reducing reliance on cash, none of these objectives required demonetisation," she said.

    These objectives could have been better achieved through other reform measures, she explained, such as strengthening the tax authorities and taking action against defaulters.

    "Demonetisation hurt the economy in the short run [and possibly in the longer run as well], and caused unnecessary hardship, especially to ordinary citizens," Khera told Al Jazeera.

    Spillover slowdown from the note ban saw an immediate fall in gross domestic product (GDP). Growth slid to a three-year low in the last quarter of 2016.

    A Reuters poll in October said a majority of economists believe India's economy will likely grow at its slowest pace in four years this fiscal year, particularly because of the disruptive effect of demonetisation.

    http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/fea...074631199.html
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    80% of people against demonetisation: Survey

    Contrary to what PM Narendra Modi and his colleagues claim that the nation supported demonetisation, a new study has found that only 20% were in favour of the move or confused. The rest against it

    That demonetisation has been a disaster has been acknowledged by all, except by those walk through the corridors of power. But, now there is an additional set of statistics to back the sensible thought. According to a study conducted across 21 states and by 32 organisations, it was found that 80 per cent of those interviewed were against the move and 20 per cent were either in favour of the move or confused.


    https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/...isation-survey
    Last edited by prasad1; 11-11-2017 at 08:32 PM.
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    The total cost of recalibration of bank ATMs was estimated at ₹10,000 per ATM and that would work out to ₹2 billion in the country. If we were to include wages and operational overheads, a total cost of ₹351.4 billion was borne by banks for the 50 days of demonetisation exercise.
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    As BJP's winning streak continues in polls held post demonetisation, Congress wants to wait till Budget Session
    Chandigarh civic body poll results are being viewed from the prism of demonetisation because the Opposition's campaign in all these elections largely hovered around the Narendra Modi government's biggest economic initiative so far.

    By Kumar Shakti Shekhar | December 20, 2016
    BJP workers celebrating party's win in Chandigarh civic body elections.
    In the results announced today for municipal elections held in Chandigarh, the ruling BJP-Akali Dal combine registered an impressive victory, winning on 21 of the municipal seats. Except for the third phase of Maharashtra municipal elections, the BJP has maintained its winning streak. Whether they be the municipal elections or the bye-elections held in other states after Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced demonetisation initiative, the BJP has won them handsomely.

    The results are being viewed from the prism of demonetisation because the Opposition's campaign in all these elections largely hovered around the Narendra Modi government's biggest economic initiative so far. Demonetisation has affected the lives of each and every Indian family and the Opposition hoped to cash in on the hardships being faced particularly by the common man.

    However, if there is any major discontentment against the Narendra Modi government over demonetisation, the Opposition has failed to turn the tide in its favour. They hope to see a favourable result after some time.

    CONGRESS

    Responding to the Chandigarh results, Congress' senior national spokesperson Shakeel Ahmed told India Today that the people were still giving a benefit of doubt to PM Modi. "Modi has calibrated that demonetisation has been implemented in national interest. He has also sought time of 50 days, which expires in December. The discontentment against the Modi government is slowly and gradually growing," he said.

    Also read | Ahead of Punjab election, ruling BJP-Akali Dal combine sweeps Chandigarh local polls

    Ahmed claimed that very soon, people will get disillusioned. "Demonetisation's major impact will be felt when unemployment starts rising at an alarming rate. This will be visible after the Budget Session. As soon as the people realise that Modi has taken this step to benefit his own people, they will give a return gift by dumping him," he said.

    BJP

    However, the BJP has an entirely different take on the recent election results. Thanking the people of Chandigarh for supporting BJP, party president Amit Shah said every election win after November 8 proves that they support the demonetisation move.

    ">


    BJP's national spokesperson Syed Shahnawaz Hussain told India Today that it was the Opposition which made demonetisation the main plank in every election held after November 8. "The people have rejected the Opposition's raves and rants over demonetisation. They have supported demonetisation," he said.

    Hussain further said had the BJP lost all these elections, the same Opposition would have termed them a referendum on demonetisation. "The BJP will win all other future elections, Assembly or otherwise," he added.

    CHANDIGARH

    In the elections held on 26 seats for the Union Territory, BJP won 20 while its alliance partner Akali Dal was victorious on just one seat. The BJP-Akali Dal combine has been in power in Punjab for almost ten years. The BJP is upbeat over the results because the state goes to polls in early 2017. The alliance is facing a double anti-incumbency and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has emerged as a strong contender besides Congress. AAP won four seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP feels relieved with the Chandigarh municipal election results.

    WATCH VIDEO

    MAHARASHTRA

    BJP was way ahead of Congress in the first two phases of municipal elections. It won 51 of the 147 president council posts that went to polls on November 27, just 19 days after PM Narendra Modi had announced the demonetisation initiative. BJP emerged as the single largest party. It maintained its numero uno position even in the second phase, winning five of the 14 president council posts. However, in the third phase, Congress won more corporator seats than the BJP, and an equal number of president council posts.

    But in toto, BJP won more number of posts than it did the last time. Its tally rose from 25 corporator seats in the previous election to 119 now. Congress, which had won 150 corporator seats last time, managed to take a lead on 126 seats, thus ceding ground to rival BJP.

    GUJARAT

    BJP captured two municipalities and one taluka panchayat in local bodies elections, the results of which were declared on November 29. BJP also maintained its lead on 23 out of 31 other seats of various municipalities, taluka and district panchayats, where by-polls were held.

    RAJASTHAN

    Out of the 37 seats on which local bodies by-elections were held in Rajasthan on November 29, ruling BJP won 19 seats while Congress was victorious on 14 seats. In fact, the two parties gained one seat each in the by-polls held for Panchayat and municipal seats in the state.

    LOK SABHA & ASSEMBLY BYE-ELECTIONS

    Bye-elections to four Lok Sabha and eight Assembly constituencies in six states and one Union Territory were held on November 19, 11 days after PM Narendra Modi announced the demonetisation move. In the results which were announced on November 22, BJP and Trinamool Congress won two Lok Sabha seats each. In the Assembly by-polls, BJP and AIADMK won three seats each, CPI(M) got two while Congress and Trinamool bagged one seat each.

    OPPOSITION'S STAND

    Ever since the demonetisation initiative was announced, Opposition leaders like Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi, and Delhi and West Bengal Chief Ministers Arvind Kejriwal and Mamata Banerjee respectively are up in arms against the Centre. They have termed the decision a "scam". Kejriwal and Banerjee have demanded its complete rollback. The two CMs had even talked about people revolting against demonetisation.

    Both Houses of Parliament failed to transact any meaningful business in the recently-concluded Winter Session, largely because of the ruckus created by the Opposition parties. While demonetisation has failed to adversely impact BJP electorally so far, the final test would be the forthcoming Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Goa scheduled for early 2017. To understand
    नाभुक्तं क्षीयते कर्म कल्प कोटि शतैरपि।
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    Elections are the best platforms people get to register their resentment against any government. The BJP has only lost in Bihar and Punjab post demonetization. If this is the position with more than 80 percent people against BJP as claimed by National Herald what would it be if the party regains little more ground....
    Last edited by GANESH65; 12-11-2017 at 02:52 AM.
    नाभुक्तं क्षीयते कर्म कल्प कोटि शतैरपि।
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    Quote Originally Posted by prasad1 View Post
    80% of people against demonetisation: Survey

    Contrary to what PM Narendra Modi and his colleagues claim that the nation supported demonetisation, a new study has found that only 20% were in favour of the move or confused. The rest against it

    That demonetisation has been a disaster has been acknowledged by all, except by those walk through the corridors of power. But, now there is an additional set of statistics to back the sensible thought. According to a study conducted across 21 states and by 32 organisations, it was found that 80 per cent of those interviewed were against the move and 20 per cent were either in favour of the move or confused.


    https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/...isation-survey


    If all this is true, then BJP would be voted out right? Then we should all be happy.

    Let us see what happens in real life.
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    Quote Originally Posted by biswa View Post
    If all this is true, then BJP would be voted out right? Then we should all be happy.

    Let us see what happens in real life.
    My post was one more opinion. There is nothing to be frustrated.
    Polls are won not on facts, remember USA elected Trump, so polls do not reflect the collective intelligence. It only reflects collective stupidity.


    People vote not for the smartest people, sometimes they vote for the stupidest reason.

    Think of all the wrong people who got voted.
    Last edited by prasad1; 12-11-2017 at 04:53 AM.
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    Smile


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    Dear Mr Ganesh,

    I appreciate the well ariticulated analysis of current reaction of public about demonitisation, written by BJD member of Parliament Mr Bayjayant Panda. I have observed this Parliamentarian speaking for BJD in the Parliament many times. He is pragmatic and sensible in his speaches.
    I agree with the views of Economist Mr Jagdish Bhagwathi who introduced Mr Jay Panda and said
    "Many of us hope that one day you will be the Indian Prime Minister. He (Jay Panda) is an amazingly competent man, taking great interest in the issues of the day,”. Little exaggerated ambition of right wing senior economist Mr Baghwathi.
    How ever I wish Mr. Modi's Government should use persons like Mr Jay Panda in the Governance of the Country.

    Brahmanyan
    Bangalore.
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