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The world in 2076: The population bomb has imploded

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prasad1

prasad1

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By Fred Pearce
Could the population bomb be about to go off in the most unexpected way? Rather than a Malthusian meltdown, could we instead be on the verge of a demographic implosion?

To find out how and why, go to Japan, where a recent survey found that people are giving up on sex. Despite a life expectancy of 85 and rising, the number of Japanese is falling thanks to a fertility rate of just 1.4 children per woman, and a reported epidemic of virginity. The population, it seems, are too busy (and too shy) to procreate.
It’s catching. Half the world’s nations have fertility rates below the replacement level of just over two children per woman. Countries across Europe and the Far East are teetering on a demographic cliff, with rates below 1.5. On recent trends, Germany and Italy could see their populations halve within the next 60 years.

The world has hit peak child, says Hans Rosling at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden. Peak person cannot be far behind.

For now, the world’s population continues to rise. From today’s 7.4 billion people, we might reach 9 billion or so, mostly because of high fertility in Africa. The UN predicts a continuing upward trend, with population reaching around 11.2 billion in 2100. But this seems unlikely. After hitting the demographic doldrums, no country yet has seen its fertility recover. Many demographers expect a global crash to be under way by 2076.


https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23231001-400-the-world-in-2076-the-population-bomb-did-go-off-but-were-ok/


They must not have visited India, Africa etc.
 
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Elon Musk made a grim prediction on Twitter on Thursday.

"The world's population is accelerating towards collapse, but few seem to notice or care," the Tesla CEO wrote.
Musk was responding to a New Scientist article entitled "The world in 2076: The population bomb has imploded," which forecasted the gradual decline of the world population over the next 60 years.

Though the global population is currently rising — mostly due to high fertility rates in African countries — experts have also observed falling fertility rates around the world.

This is concerning for demographers and economists because countries must hit what's known as "replacement fertility" in order to keep their populations — and their economies — stable. Replacement fertility is around 2.1 children per woman.

If countries don't have enough babies, they won't produce a strong enough labor force to match the economic output of the older generations. And in the most extreme cases, low fertility rates create a vicious cycle of low spending and low reproduction. People who can't afford to have kids don't bolster the economy, which leads people to have even fewer children.

Many of the world's wealthiest countries may not be far away from economic decline due to low fertility. The US, Denmark, China, and Singapore all have low fertility rates: 1.87, 1.73, 1.6, and 0.81, respectively. Japan, one of the most extreme cases of population implosion, has a fertility rate of 1.41. Its population has been declining for the past few years.

A 2016 UBS report predicted Japan's population crisis could spread to other industrialized countries over the next 20 years, based on the finding that many of today's wealthy countries bear a striking resemblance to 1990s Japan.
The data don't necessarily support Musk's claim that the world is accelerating toward "collapse," however. The United Nations, for instance, still predicts the global population will reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.

In addition, analyses from Our World in Data show the global fertility rates tending toward just under two children per woman by 2100. But there have been cases when fertility declined rapidly. China, for example, went from above six children per woman to under three in a span of just 11 years between 1967-1978. The United Kingdom, meanwhile, took 95 years from 1815 to 1910.

The extent to which humanity is headed for "collapse" may depend on whether fertility rates decline rapidly like they did in China in the 1970s or gradually like the UK in the 1800s.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-thinks-worlds-population-135500109.html
 
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